Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Jan 11, 2021 – Jan 15, 2021)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.


Matt McAleer & Equities / ETFs
-We’re seeing a little pullback this week, Matt explains.
-Sectors? Strategies? Matt details.
-Good performance news by some names in banks last night. Today, we’re seeing a selloff on the news, nothing unexpected.
-We look to buy on pullbacks.
-Alternative Energy? Solar, Wind, Water has performed well for us since David Kotok directed trades here.
-Energy? Best performing sector this week.
-Yield can be a big dictator of money flows. This might be what’s happening in Energy.
-Monday is MLK Day and Cumberland Advisors will be closed. Observed each year on the third Monday in January as “a day on, not a day off,” the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday is the only federal holiday designated as a “national day of service” to encourage all Americans to volunteer to improve their communities. Learn more at the AmeriCorps website: https://americorps.gov/newsroom/events/mlk-dayJohn Mousseau & Fixed Income / Munis
-Quiet week in bond market
-10yr and 30yr bond down a little this week, we think due to jobless claims being higher than expected
-Biden announced this week a future stimulus package (almost two trillion) that will benefit municipalities, a feature that has been missing until now. The final package is expected to be smaller than announced but still substantial.
-Inflation? Pretty well behaved. As we move toward summer, numbers will move higher along with expectations.
-We have a new look at Cumberland! A new logo has been adopted for the future, something we don’t do very often.
-There have only been a few logo changes since David R. Kotok co-founded the firm in 1973, so we’re excited to share this with you.Cumberland Advisors

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/kmRrK0smsTI

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Send your feedback from today’s email/video to Matt. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


In the News…

 

Recovery hopes help markets start with a pop

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 01/07/2021 read more

Muni market unperturbed amid mob violence in U.S. Capitol

Quoted: John R. Mousseau | Posted on: 01/06/2021 read more

David Kotok on the Markets (Bloomberg Radio)

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 01/05/2021 read more

Munis flat as traders look ahead to next year’s supply slate

Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA | Posted on: 01/01/2021 read more


A message from David R. Kotok

Frontline Nurses: The USF Program & Why To Do It

Now, there’s a new USF (University of South Florida) program for nurses, “Frontline Nursing During COVID-19: A New Paradigm,” is coming online. It includes four webinars and focuses on helping nurses, who dedicate their careers to caring for others, to take care of themselves in the midst of and beyond the crisis.

The program is free for any nurse anywhere in the world and especially in the United States. It was developed by the USF College of Nursing. It will give nurses continuing education credits, and it will do so at zero cost to the nurses who sign up.

Here’s the program link and the details: https://health.usf.edu/nursing/frontline-nursing

Frontline Nurses USF Program

Please share the link and spread the word about this program. We want to protect our nurses. We want them alive and healthy. The ancient words apply: “If you save a single life, it is as if you have saved the entire world.” Join me, and let’s try to save nurses’ lives and patients’ lives, too.


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

Read current and past commentaries here: https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


 JOLTS and a Sobering View of Labor Market Conditions

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: January 15, 2021

Robert Eisenbeis Although the news is somewhat stale, the January 12 release of the BLS’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for November provides some additional information about the underlying dynamics of the labor market as we approached the December virus surge. The picture we see reflects some calming in the labor market after a huge […]


South Africa Facing a Resurgence of the Virus

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: January 14, 2021

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by William "Bill" Witherell, Ph.D. In recent weeks, a new and more contagious variant of COVID-19 has been surging in South Africa, with per capita new infections and deaths approaching the globally leading rates being experienced in the UK and the USA. While on December 26 the seven-day rolling average of new South African cases per 100,000 people was 19.86, […]


Markets and Another Impeachment

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: January 13, 2021

CA-David-Kotok-Bio-2021 The response of the markets to a potential second impeachment of President Trump is impossible to predict now. History shows why this may not be a market moving event. The new Senate under Schumer will decide what to do with Speaker Pelosi’s new articles of impeachment. How and when is not clear. In the meantime […]


Jobs, As the New Year Begins

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: January 12, 2021

Robert Eisenbeis The jobs numbers released this week provide a sobering view of the pace of the recovery and provide clear evidence as to what we can expect from the FOMC. The Committee’s new strategy focuses on ensuring maximum employment, with policy designed to minimize downside deviations from that what the Committee views as full employment. The […]


Q4 Quarterly Credit Commentary – Municipal Credit 2020 and Beyond

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: January 11, 2021

Patricia Healy In the depths of the muni market plunge back in March, many feared that the sky had fallen and that municipalities would not be able to manage their services and debt repayment. The initial fall in prices was due to a collapse of liquidity, when muni money market funds had no one to sell to […]


Mourning

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: January 10, 2021

Mourning When we mourn for a person, that is a certain kind of experience. Lose an aged parent and you feel the loss. But that loss is also a part of a repeating life cycle. Lose a pet? Not the same, but there is a sense of loss of a different type. But lose an idea? […]


Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: January 8, 2021

CA-John-R-Mousseau-The Blue Wave and the Bond Markets

The Democrat Party won both Senate seats in Georgia on Tuesday, January 5th. Our own math had a split decision, with each party capturing a Senate seat; but with the sweep the Democrats will now control the White House, the House of Representatives, and the Senate, where a 50-50 split will now be broken by […]


Census Update

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: January 7, 2021

CA-David-Kotok-Portrait-With-Title-Blue-2020

According to the Brookings Institution, “Newly released Census Bureau population estimates through mid-year 2020 reveal record lows in U.S. population growth, both annually and for the 2010-to-2020 decade…. “The new estimates indicate that over the period from July 1, 2019 to July 1, 2020, the nation grew by just 0.35%. This is the lowest annual […]


Breakeven Inflation

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: January 6, 2021

Robert Eisenbeis

In a recent review of fixed-income security returns, Cumberland Chairman, David Kotok, raised a question concerning what looked to him to be an anomaly with respect to the spread between the 5-year and 10-year breakeven inflation rates on US Treasures, which had narrowed to only 5 basis points. Both market-based measures of inflation expectations, calculated […]


Attack on the Fed, Market Reaction: A One-Day Saga

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: January 5, 2021

CA-David-Kotok-Portrait-With-Title-Blue-2020

Dear readers, we narrowly avoided a catastrophe. I use that word because an action by Congress to eliminate or neuter the power of the central bank to intervene as lender of last resort in a crisis is exactly the way to create a catastrophe. The 1929–1933 period of American history is evidence of how a […]


A message from David R. Kotok

Frontline Nurses: The USF Program & Why To Do It

Now, there’s a new USF (University of South Florida) program for nurses, “Frontline Nursing During COVID-19: A New Paradigm,” is coming online. It includes four webinars and focuses on helping nurses, who dedicate their careers to caring for others, to take care of themselves in the midst of and beyond the crisis.

The program is free for any nurse anywhere in the world and especially in the United States. It was developed by the USF College of Nursing. It will give nurses continuing education credits, and it will do so at zero cost to the nurses who sign up.

Here’s the program link and the details: https://health.usf.edu/nursing/frontline-nursing

Frontline Nurses USF Program

Please share the link and spread the word about this program. We want to protect our nurses. We want them alive and healthy. The ancient words apply: “If you save a single life, it is as if you have saved the entire world.” Join me, and let’s try to save nurses’ lives and patients’ lives, too.


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Jan 04, 2021 – Jan 08, 2021)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.


Matt McAleer & Equities / ETFs
-Strong week across the board
-Nice bid internationally
-Emerging and developed markets doubled the S&P & Qs here
-Market ignored politics from a price standpoint this week
-Extreme politics can undermine confidence in markets. We’re not seeing that yet.
-Let’s keep our eyes on interest rates
-The rise in interest rates this week changing some risk/reward dynamics

John Mousseau & Fixed Income / Munis
-Georgia Senators now Democrat
-What did turmoil this week mean to the bond market?
-Blue wave underlining an expectation of spending/stimulus
-10yr bond yield up 18 ticks, 30yr nond yield up 23 ticks
-Yield Curve has become steeper
-Inflation expectations are picking up. Expectations in the bond markets is just as important as outright inflation itself.
-Muni Bond yields? Not much of an uptick. They continue to be in demand with expectations of tax rates going up in the future.
-Muni Bond supply expected to increase, maybe a flood of supply this late winter, early spring.
-We’re fairly defensively positioned right now and we’re looking to take advantage of an increase new issuance.
-Municipal Credit looks good going forward and an expectation of an infrastructure program under a Biden government
-We’re watching the CPI closely
-Have a good weekend after this tumultuous week
-I’d appreciate it if you’d read my commentary if you haven’t already, The Blue Wave and the Bond Markets, which you can find here:
https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-the-blue-wave-and-the-bond-markets/

The Blue Wave and the Bond Markets

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/k9s-2nEh8Cs

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Send your feedback from today’s email/video to Matt. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


In the News…

 

Recovery hopes help markets start with a pop

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 01/07/2021 read more

Muni market unperturbed amid mob violence in U.S. Capitol

Quoted: John R. Mousseau | Posted on: 01/06/2021 read more

David Kotok on the Markets (Bloomberg Radio)

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 01/05/2021 read more

Munis flat as traders look ahead to next year’s supply slate

Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA | Posted on: 01/01/2021 read more


A message from David R. Kotok

Frontline Nurses: The USF Program & Why To Do It

Now, there’s a new USF (University of South Florida) program for nurses, “Frontline Nursing During COVID-19: A New Paradigm,” is coming online. It includes four webinars and focuses on helping nurses, who dedicate their careers to caring for others, to take care of themselves in the midst of and beyond the crisis.

The program is free for any nurse anywhere in the world and especially in the United States. It was developed by the USF College of Nursing. It will give nurses continuing education credits, and it will do so at zero cost to the nurses who sign up.

Here’s the program link and the details: https://health.usf.edu/nursing/frontline-nursing

Frontline Nurses USF Program

Please share the link and spread the word about this program. We want to protect our nurses. We want them alive and healthy. The ancient words apply: “If you save a single life, it is as if you have saved the entire world.” Join me, and let’s try to save nurses’ lives and patients’ lives, too.


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

Read current and past commentaries here: https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


The Blue Wave and the Bond Markets

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: January 8, 2021

CA-John-R-Mousseau-The Blue Wave and the Bond Markets

The Democrat Party won both Senate seats in Georgia on Tuesday, January 5th. Our own math had a split decision, with each party capturing a Senate seat; but with the sweep the Democrats will now control the White House, the House of Representatives, and the Senate, where a 50-50 split will now be broken by […]


Census Update

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: January 7, 2021

CA-David-Kotok-Portrait-With-Title-Blue-2020

According to the Brookings Institution, “Newly released Census Bureau population estimates through mid-year 2020 reveal record lows in U.S. population growth, both annually and for the 2010-to-2020 decade…. “The new estimates indicate that over the period from July 1, 2019 to July 1, 2020, the nation grew by just 0.35%. This is the lowest annual […]


Breakeven Inflation

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: January 6, 2021

Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

In a recent review of fixed-income security returns, Cumberland Chairman, David Kotok, raised a question concerning what looked to him to be an anomaly with respect to the spread between the 5-year and 10-year breakeven inflation rates on US Treasures, which had narrowed to only 5 basis points. Both market-based measures of inflation expectations, calculated […]


Attack on the Fed, Market Reaction: A One-Day Saga

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: January 5, 2021

CA-David-Kotok-Portrait-With-Title-Blue-2020

Dear readers, we narrowly avoided a catastrophe. I use that word because an action by Congress to eliminate or neuter the power of the central bank to intervene as lender of last resort in a crisis is exactly the way to create a catastrophe. The 1929–1933 period of American history is evidence of how a […]


Politics: Aaarrgh!

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 30, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Politics Aaarrgh!

About 20 million people in America were at sharply increased financial risk if Trump hadn’t signed the new stimulus bill. I asked Mike Englund of Action Economics for a breakdown. Here’s what he sent. “This is taken straight from the initial claims report from the DOL: Unemployment Insurance Benefits in All Programs Week ending December […]


Taxable Total Return 4th Quarter Review

Author: Daniel Himelberger, Post Date: December 29, 2020

Cumberland Advisors - Dan Himelberger - Portfolio Manager & Fixed Income Analyst

The buildup to and launch of a COVID-19 vaccine during the fourth quarter of 2020 led to record highs being set in the stock market and a steeper Treasury yield curve. The news of the vaccine also benefits spreads on investment-grade corporates and taxable municipals. These spreads continue to grind lower from their highs earlier […]


The Long Strange Trip of the Muni Market in 2020

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: December 28, 2020

CA-Market-Commentary - The Long Strange Trip of the Muni Market in 2020 - Mousseau

Sometimes the light’s all shinin’ on me Other times I can barely see Lately it occurs to me What a long strange trip it’s been “Truckin,” by the Grateful Dead (Lyrics by Robert Hunter)   Those great lines from a great song sum up the 2020 investment year in general and particularly in munis, as […]


Ave Maria & More

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 27, 2020

Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-David-Sunday-Ave-Maria-&-More

We hope that you’ve made the most of your holidays during this extraordinary year and have found safe ways to connect with family and friends. On this Sunday poised just before the new year, we would like to wish you and yours a better and brighter 2021. We are hopeful although, we know that we […]


International Equities at Year-end 2020 & the Promise Ahead

Author: Bill Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: December 23, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - International Equities at Year-end 2020 and the Promise Ahead by William Witherell, Ph.D.

During March and April of this year, the global economy and equity markets were hit with a severe shock from the COVID-19 pandemic and the widespread lockdown measures governments imposed in response. In May and June, the spread of infection lessened in many economies, lockdowns were largely ended, and restrictions eased. Equity markets started a […]


CIO Overview – 2021 Market & Macro Outlook

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 21, 2020

“Now what?” we are asked after a 2020 that saw a full-year market whipsaw round trip, coupled with a COVID-induced economic deep dive in the spring. The V-shaped recovery that followed is starting to falter. Let’s take a look in this 2021 market & macro outlook. Jim Bianco has given us permission to use a […]


Cumberland Advisors is an Annual Supporter of

the Global Interdependence Center

GIC Event

The Global Interdependence Center is delighted to partner with Yeshiva University for their first Executive Briefing of 2021. Join them on January 14 at 4PM (ET) for their Macroeconomic Outlook.

There is no cost to register: https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/4721950953747038992


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Dec 28, 2020 – Jan 01, 2021)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

John Mousseau & Fixed Income / Munis
-Bond Market- basically unchanged since Christmas Eve. 10yr bond at .92% & 30yr bond at 1.65%
-Muni Bond yields running about 75-80% of those numbers
-We’re keeping an eye on the Georgia election. Will the Republicans hold the Senate? John gives his take on what may happen under neutral or Republican/Democrat control.
-Initial jobless claims came in a little lower than expected. That’s a good thing.
-We thank the Federal Reserve and Treasury for coming to rescue of markets by acting as a backstop
-We wish you all a happy and healthy new year

Matt McAleer & Equities / ETFs
-17+ in total return this year – a big surprise
-Liquidity and the Fed’s backing of debt was key
-Headlines shook people out of the market
-But what’s important? Not the headlines, but how the markets react to the headlines.
-2021 will have twists and turns that we don’t have in our playbook today, just like every new year
-Could a bump in vaccine delivery roil markets?
-Have a great Christmas, Happy Holidays, let’s get 2021 off to a great start.
-I have a chart to share with you to put 2020 into perspective and share my take along with market events
-Year to year, different asset classes will lead
-Always be respectful of risk and reward
-We want as much reward for each dollar of invested capital with the least amount of risk
-For the future, we’ll stay flexible, continue to measure risk/reward, and put capital to work where the ratio delivers the best bang for the buck
-Have a great news years weekend, see you next year!

Video Chart

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link:  https://youtu.be/aXz1hg_6iJw

 

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Send your feedback from today’s email/video to Matt. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


In the news… The stock market is ending 2020 at record highs, even as the virus surges and millions go hungry

By Hamza Shaban and Heather Long – Dec. 31, 2020

CA-In-The-News-David-R-Kotok-WaPo-20201231

The U.S. stock market ended 2020 at all-time highs, enriching the wealthy and capping off a soaring comeback despite a deadly pandemic that has killed more than 340,000 Americans and left millions jobless and hungry.

As the extent of the coronavirus became clear in March, investors sent stocks tumbling 34 percent, a bear market. But it turned out to be the shortest downturn in U.S. history. Since the U.S. stock market bottomed on March 23, the S&P 500 has risen 68 percent, shattering all-time records along the way. The rebound reflects Wall Street’s optimism about 2021, but it also underscores the disconnect between the stock market’s wild success and struggling American households.

“The markets are dominated by the folks who are in the upper echelons. They don’t feel any pain. They read about it, but they don’t experience it,” said David Kotok, founder of Cumberland Advisors. “What they do experience is the flip side: We have had very substantial productivity gains with Zoom and other daily life efficiencies.”

Read the full story at WaPo’s site: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/12/31/stock-market-record-2020/


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

Read current and past commentaries here: https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


Politics: Aaarrgh!

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 30, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Politics Aaarrgh!

About 20 million people in America were at sharply increased financial risk if Trump hadn’t signed the new stimulus bill. I asked Mike Englund of Action Economics for a breakdown. Here’s what he sent. “This is taken straight from the initial claims report from the DOL: Unemployment Insurance Benefits in All Programs Week ending December […]


Taxable Total Return 4th Quarter Review

Author: Daniel Himelberger, Post Date: December 29, 2020

Cumberland Advisors - Dan Himelberger - Portfolio Manager & Fixed Income Analyst

The buildup to and launch of a COVID-19 vaccine during the fourth quarter of 2020 led to record highs being set in the stock market and a steeper Treasury yield curve. The news of the vaccine also benefits spreads on investment-grade corporates and taxable municipals. These spreads continue to grind lower from their highs earlier […]


The Long Strange Trip of the Muni Market in 2020

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: December 28, 2020

CA-Market-Commentary - The Long Strange Trip of the Muni Market in 2020 - Mousseau

Sometimes the light’s all shinin’ on me Other times I can barely see Lately it occurs to me What a long strange trip it’s been “Truckin,” by the Grateful Dead (Lyrics by Robert Hunter)   Those great lines from a great song sum up the 2020 investment year in general and particularly in munis, as […]


Ave Maria & More

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 27, 2020

Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-David-Sunday-Ave-Maria-&-More

We hope that you’ve made the most of your holidays during this extraordinary year and have found safe ways to connect with family and friends. On this Sunday poised just before the new year, we would like to wish you and yours a better and brighter 2021. We are hopeful although, we know that we […]


International Equities at Year-end 2020 & the Promise Ahead

Author: Bill Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: December 23, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - International Equities at Year-end 2020 and the Promise Ahead by William Witherell, Ph.D.

During March and April of this year, the global economy and equity markets were hit with a severe shock from the COVID-19 pandemic and the widespread lockdown measures governments imposed in response. In May and June, the spread of infection lessened in many economies, lockdowns were largely ended, and restrictions eased. Equity markets started a […]


CIO Overview – 2021 Market & Macro Outlook

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 21, 2020

“Now what?” we are asked after a 2020 that saw a full-year market whipsaw round trip, coupled with a COVID-induced economic deep dive in the spring. The V-shaped recovery that followed is starting to falter. Let’s take a look in this 2021 market & macro outlook. Jim Bianco has given us permission to use a […]


Florida-COVID Update

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 20, 2020
Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-David-Sunday-Florida-COVID-Update
As much as you may know about airborne transmission of COVID-19, something new may be learned from this video. How risky is it, for instance, to stand in line behind someone who is wearing a loosely fitted mask? Find out. See “Military-grade camera shows risks of airborne coronavirus spread,” https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2020/12/11/coronavirus-airborne-video-infrared-spread/ We thank all the readers […]

The December FOMC

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: December 18, 2020

Federal Reserve - FOMC

Prior to the Fed’s December FOMC meeting there was a general consensus among economists (see the December NABE forecast, for example) that the Committee would not change its federal funds rate target. But the media was filled with speculation that the FOMC would possibly increase its asset purchase program or begin to purchase longer-maturity Treasuries. […]


Fed: Data-driven?

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 17, 2020

CA-David-Kotok-Portrait-With-Title-Blue-2020

In a Bloomberg column by John Authors, published on December 16 (“Fed’s Last Christmas Before Biden Is All About WAM,”), his chart shows Core PCE has emerged as the most important inflation measure, as it is likely to have a stronger influence on the Fed’s policy decisions than other inflation measures. Continued[…]


Drones

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 15, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Drones

Steve K. got us thinking about drones when he sent an email with three videos, one riveting, one marvelous, and one “downright scary,” all of them about drones. We decided to explore further. We note that we are overweight aerospace and defense in our US ETF portfolios. As you will see, drones are an increasingly […]


In the news… Munis flat as traders look ahead to next year’s supply slate

By Chip Barnett – December 29, 2020

CA-In-The-News-John-R-Mousseau-BondBuyer-20201229

Municipal bonds were little changed Tuesday as the market took stock of 2020 and looked ahead to what 2021 might have in store. Yields on top-rated munis were flat across AAA scales.

As the year comes to a close, the municipal bond market is essentially “cured from a functionality standpoint,” according to John Mousseau, president and chief executive officer of Cumberland Advisors.

“Muni yields across the board are significantly lower than they were at the start of the year, and in the short end they are MUCH LOWER,” he wrote in a Tuesday market commentary. “Compared to the end of March, when the muni market had righted itself, overall yields are also much lower, particularly in the shorter end of the yield curve, reflecting the lowering of short-term interest rates by the Fed in March and the return of liquidity to the market in general and the short-term market in particular.”

“Yes, there have been some downgrades, and there will be more. But the most salient feature of high-grade municipal bonds has shone through in 2020, and that is the fact that municipal issuers enjoy a monopoly on taxing power and the provision of essential services,”Mousseau said. “And as we have seen in this past year, the larger infrastructure-type issuers enjoy broad institutional support from both the investing public and Congress. And just as important, even issuers with structural problems, such as New Jersey and Illinois, still have broad municipal market access, albeit at higher yields than the market.”

But he noted that municipalities across the country still needed some help.

Continue reading the full story at The Bond Buyer’s site: https://www.bondbuyer.com/news/munis-flat-as-traders-look-ahead-to-next-years-healthy-supply-slate


CA-In-The-News-David-R-Kotok-Bloomberg-TV-20201229


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Dec 21, 2020 – Dec 25, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

John Mousseau & Fixed Income / Munis
-Bond Market- quiet week for fixed income. 10 & 30yr bonds are exactly where we left them last Friday. 95bps on the 10yr & 170bps on the 30yr.
-Munis? No change since Friday. No deals.
-Muni market was hoping for direct aid to state and local gov’ts from the stimulus. They hopefully will benefit from the stimulus working its way through the economy.
-We expect to see increased spending from the next congress, even if the Republicans hold the Senate
-We expect more initial spending to occur during Biden’s honeymoon phase
-Therefore there could be a deal for direct aid to state and local gov’ts
-Spending should increase with vaccines
-Perception of inflation could affect bond yields
-We thank all of you for joining us week after week during these trying times
-Have a great holiday and a happy new year

Matt McAleer & Equities / ETFs
-It was nice to see volume and volatility take a little break this week: I explain.
-If you’ve traded the markets this year in a reasonable way, primarily equities but bonds also, you “really earned your spurs this year!”
-At Cumberland Advisors, we like to measure volatility in plus or minus two percent days in the S&P 500
-Average years see sixteen “volatile” days by our measure. This year? Forty+ and it’s not over.
-When we’re trying to allocate capital, positive returns take care of themselves, or to put it another way, the upside tends to take care of itself if the downside is handled appropriately.
Heading into Q1 we need to be cognizant of some of the speculative activity we’re currently seeing in the “call” market on the CBOE
-What’s speculative? Buyers & Sellers of contracts under twenty.
-Two weeks ago, over 29% of the options traded were of that nature (they were calls).
-That tends to be a signal that the upside from there may be limited. Maybe the market needs a reset?
-Don’t define what you’re expecting from the equity market: Watch, Analyze, & React!
-Have a great Christmas, Happy Holidays, let’s get 2021 off to a great start.
-Contact John or I with any questions you may have, thank you!

Cumberland Holiday Greetings
Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/yypqjcobP04

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Send your feedback from today’s email/video to Matt. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

Read current and past commentaries here: https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


International Equities at Year-end 2020 & the Promise Ahead

Author: Bill Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: December 23, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - International Equities at Year-end 2020 and the Promise Ahead by William Witherell, Ph.D.

During March and April of this year, the global economy and equity markets were hit with a severe shock from the COVID-19 pandemic and the widespread lockdown measures governments imposed in response. In May and June, the spread of infection lessened in many economies, lockdowns were largely ended, and restrictions eased. Equity markets started a […]


CIO Overview – 2021 Market & Macro Outlook

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 21, 2020

“Now what?” we are asked after a 2020 that saw a full-year market whipsaw round trip, coupled with a COVID-induced economic deep dive in the spring. The V-shaped recovery that followed is starting to falter. Let’s take a look in this 2021 market & macro outlook. Jim Bianco has given us permission to use a […]


Florida-COVID Update

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 20, 2020
Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-David-Sunday-Florida-COVID-Update
As much as you may know about airborne transmission of COVID-19, something new may be learned from this video. How risky is it, for instance, to stand in line behind someone who is wearing a loosely fitted mask? Find out. See “Military-grade camera shows risks of airborne coronavirus spread,” https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2020/12/11/coronavirus-airborne-video-infrared-spread/ We thank all the readers […]

The December FOMC

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: December 18, 2020

Federal Reserve - FOMC

Prior to the Fed’s December FOMC meeting there was a general consensus among economists (see the December NABE forecast, for example) that the Committee would not change its federal funds rate target. But the media was filled with speculation that the FOMC would possibly increase its asset purchase program or begin to purchase longer-maturity Treasuries. […]


Fed: Data-driven?

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 17, 2020

CA-David-Kotok-Portrait-With-Title-Blue-2020

In a Bloomberg column by John Authors, published on December 16 (“Fed’s Last Christmas Before Biden Is All About WAM,”), his chart shows Core PCE has emerged as the most important inflation measure, as it is likely to have a stronger influence on the Fed’s policy decisions than other inflation measures. Continued[…]


Drones

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 15, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Drones

Steve K. got us thinking about drones when he sent an email with three videos, one riveting, one marvelous, and one “downright scary,” all of them about drones. We decided to explore further. We note that we are overweight aerospace and defense in our US ETF portfolios. As you will see, drones are an increasingly […]


The Frog & The Scorpion

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 13, 2020

Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-David-Sunday-The-Frog-&-The-Scorpion

We want to paraphrase and update an ancient parable which originated for us along the banks of the Jordan River, as it flows from the Sea of Galilee to the Dead Sea. The Jordan defines the border between modern-day Israel, Jordan, and Palestinian Authority territory. Here’s the modern American version. The river is the Potomac. The territory is the federal center of government called Washington, DC. There are two actors in our one-act, two-scene play. One is a scorpion; the other is a frog. Scene 1. […]


Siesta, Longboat, COVID, Masks & More

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 11, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Siesta, Longboat, COVID, Masks & More

Sarasota-based, Cumberland champions mask wearing and other COVID-prevention measures. We also champion business. We believe that Florida’s economics are better served with basic prevention measures in place. We would not lock down everything. We would require basic civic responsibilities, such as mask wearing in a deadly pandemic. The principle is the same as permitting or […]


Chris Whalen on GSEs

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 8, 2020

"C:\Users\Angela Colvin\Pictures\Screenshots\Nonbank Update_ PennyMac Financial Services.png"

Several folks have asked us about the status of the GSEs under the Biden regime. Some may be invested in some of the troubled securities issued by GSEs. Some argue that the US Treasury Secretary can rectify the problem without the help of Congress. We do not agree. We do not expect any help for […]


Jobs – As Yearend Approaches

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: December 7, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Jobs – As Yearend Approaches (Eisenbeis)

On Friday we got the last look at how the economy is performing, jobs-wise, before the end of the year. On the positive side, the economy did create 245,000 jobs in November, and the unemployment rate edged down to 6.7 percent. We note that critics argue the estimate is too low due to problems within […]


A Special Holiday Message from

John Mousseau, President & CEO Cumberland Advisors



Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Dec 14, 2020 – Dec 18, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

John Mousseau & Fixed Income / Munis
-Bond Market- quiet week. Yields ground a little higher. Why? Vaccines.
-Munis? Hardly a move.
-John talks about what’s happening behind the scenes in the muni world, as well as what expectations are at work in the market
-Next year will look a lot different than this one with vaccines making the difference

Matt McAleer & Equities / ETFs
-What a year!
-We’ve learned some of the same lessons traders have learned over the last 80/90/100 years, and that is to stay reasonable in the face of violent moves in the market
-In this market, it has paid to ask, “what can go right?” or “how much negativity is priced into the market?”
-After the run of spring, summer, and fall, we need to ask the same questions but with the other lens: “what can go wrong?”
-What are we not seeing? Lots of predictions talking about future gains, the loose Fed policy, vaccines. But those things are know and already baked in stocked prices.
-Right now, we’ll make no changes to our portfolios
-Asia continues to perform well. Sometimes when I mention China, I get negative feedback. Why?
-As traders, we need to battle any kind of emotional attachment to a market or security
-What I think about China and it’s trade policy or economic policy should not affect how I look at them as a trader
-Our philosophy: stay reasonable, and look at trading through a risk/reward prism
-Our last trade was last week when we let go of the banks in US ETF, sitting in about 18% cash
-We’ll look for opportunities and pullbacks to get some of that cash to work
-Our next update will be Wednesday, December 23rd. See you then.

Cumberland Holiday Greetings
Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/qVdrRV_3Ijo

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Send your feedback from today’s email/video to Matt. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

Read current and past commentaries here: https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


The December FOMC

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: December 18, 2020

Federal Reserve - FOMC

Prior to the Fed’s December FOMC meeting there was a general consensus among economists (see the December NABE forecast, for example) that the Committee would not change its federal funds rate target. But the media was filled with speculation that the FOMC would possibly increase its asset purchase program or begin to purchase longer-maturity Treasuries. […]


Fed: Data-driven?

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 17, 2020

CA-David-Kotok-Portrait-With-Title-Blue-2020

In a Bloomberg column by John Authors, published on December 16 (“Fed’s Last Christmas Before Biden Is All About WAM,”), his chart shows Core PCE has emerged as the most important inflation measure, as it is likely to have a stronger influence on the Fed’s policy decisions than other inflation measures. Continued[…]


Drones

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 15, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Drones

Steve K. got us thinking about drones when he sent an email with three videos, one riveting, one marvelous, and one “downright scary,” all of them about drones. We decided to explore further. We note that we are overweight aerospace and defense in our US ETF portfolios. As you will see, drones are an increasingly […]


The Frog & The Scorpion

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 13, 2020

Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-David-Sunday-The-Frog-&-The-Scorpion

We want to paraphrase and update an ancient parable which originated for us along the banks of the Jordan River, as it flows from the Sea of Galilee to the Dead Sea. The Jordan defines the border between modern-day Israel, Jordan, and Palestinian Authority territory. Here’s the modern American version. The river is the Potomac. The territory is the federal center of government called Washington, DC. There are two actors in our one-act, two-scene play. One is a scorpion; the other is a frog. Scene 1. […]


Siesta, Longboat, COVID, Masks & More

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 11, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Siesta, Longboat, COVID, Masks & More

Sarasota-based, Cumberland champions mask wearing and other COVID-prevention measures. We also champion business. We believe that Florida’s economics are better served with basic prevention measures in place. We would not lock down everything. We would require basic civic responsibilities, such as mask wearing in a deadly pandemic. The principle is the same as permitting or […]


Chris Whalen on GSEs

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 8, 2020

"C:\Users\Angela Colvin\Pictures\Screenshots\Nonbank Update_ PennyMac Financial Services.png"

Several folks have asked us about the status of the GSEs under the Biden regime. Some may be invested in some of the troubled securities issued by GSEs. Some argue that the US Treasury Secretary can rectify the problem without the help of Congress. We do not agree. We do not expect any help for […]


Jobs – As Yearend Approaches

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: December 7, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Jobs – As Yearend Approaches (Eisenbeis)

On Friday we got the last look at how the economy is performing, jobs-wise, before the end of the year. On the positive side, the economy did create 245,000 jobs in November, and the unemployment rate edged down to 6.7 percent. We note that critics argue the estimate is too low due to problems within […]


A Twinkle for Sunday

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 6, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - A Twinkle for Sunday

“Twinkle, Twinkle, Little Star” existed first as a poem. Written by Jane Taylor and first published in 1806, it was titled simply “The Star.” It was not until 1838 that “Twinkle, Twinkle, Little Star” appeared in print as a song, in a collection called The Singing Master: First Class Tune Book, paired with the tune […]


Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control, Part 4

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 4, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control, Part 4

In Part 4 of our series on interest rates and yield curve control, we will examine two charts and two related tables to help explain yield curve control and implications for the Treasurys market. The first three parts are available here: Part 1, https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-interest-rates-and-yield-curve-control-part-1/ Part 2, https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-interest-rates-and-yield-curve-control-part-2/ Part 3, https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-interest-rates-and-yield-curve-control-part-3/. The first chart and table […]


The Cumberland State of Despair Index

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA & Patricia Healy, CFA & Tom Patterson, Post Date: December 3, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - The Cumberland State of Despair Index (Mousseau & Healy + Patterson)

The Cumberland State of Despair Index tries to capture the despair caused by unemployment brought on by the pandemic and COVID-19 infection rates on a state-by-state basis. This State of Despair Index will be applied as a variable in our credit-scoring model. Continued […]


Raphael Bostic, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, was the keynote speaker at our invitation in 2018 for Financial Literacy Day at the Sarasota-Manatee campus of USF.



Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Dec 07, 2020 – Dec 11, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

John Mousseau & Fixed Income / Munis
-Bond Market- yields came down this week, a flattening of the yield curve
-Why?
–COVID cases up outweighing good vaccine news
–Stimulus bill looks to be coming sooner rather than later, but still no progress
–Jobless claims number higher than expected
–Inflation benign .CPI where expected.
-Munis? Not down as much as Treasuries, about 1-3bps across the board.
-In the muni world, we’re seeing big demand for BBB bonds. Investors want the higher yield and want to stay in investment grade munis, which BBB are. They want their cake and to eat it too!
-This is a good time to look at credit quality and upgrade credit within bond portfolios
-Things are looking to quiet down as we head to year’s end

Matt McAleer & Equities / ETFs
-Fairly quiet week, DOW & S&P off about 1%
-Small caps continued with their bid
-In our US Equity strategy, it has benefited from the bid in small/mid
-In our Tactical strategy, we’re still overweight Large cap
-We often talk about diversification among securities, but you also want to be diversified in your strategies. Matt explains with an example with financials/banks.
-Complimentary strategies work to achieve our goals of “what are we trying to accomplish”, “where do we want to go”, and “how do we get there”
-We cover these things all the time with existing and prospective clients
-One strategy alone doesn’t tend to achieve everything we want

Please reach out with any questions/feedback you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/-FuPp8h5CDY

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Send your feedback from today’s email/video to Matt. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


CA In The NewsDavid R. Kotok mentioned in “University of South Florida to launch new COVID-19 training program for nurses as cases climb”

By: Larissa Scott – abcactionnews.com
Posted Dec 08, 2020

Excerpt below:

TAMPA — The University of South Florida is launching a new COVID-19 training program for nurses.

The school received a $57,000 donation from Sarasota businessman David Kotok that will allow USF to produce and implement an education program directed for frontline nurses.

It will consist of webinars and podcasts that will provide nurses caring for COVID-19 patients with resources and education to help them safely do their jobs during the pandemic.

Read the full story & watch the video segment here: https://www.abcactionnews.com/news/coronavirus/university-of-south-florida-to-launch-new-covid-19-training-program-for-nurses-as-cases-climb


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

Read current and past commentaries here: https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


Siesta, Longboat, COVID, Masks & More

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 11, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Siesta, Longboat, COVID, Masks & More

Sarasota-based, Cumberland champions mask wearing and other COVID-prevention measures. We also champion business.  We believe that Florida’s economics are better served with basic prevention measures in place. We would not lock down everything. We would require basic civic responsibilities, such as mask wearing in a deadly pandemic. The principle is the same as permitting or […]


Chris Whalen on GSEs

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 8, 2020

"C:\Users\Angela Colvin\Pictures\Screenshots\Nonbank Update_ PennyMac Financial Services.png"

Several folks have asked us about the status of the GSEs under the Biden regime. Some may be invested in some of the troubled securities issued by GSEs. Some argue that the US Treasury Secretary can rectify the problem without the help of Congress. We do not agree. We do not expect any help for […]


Jobs – As Yearend Approaches

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: December 7, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Jobs – As Yearend Approaches (Eisenbeis)

On Friday we got the last look at how the economy is performing, jobs-wise, before the end of the year. On the positive side, the economy did create 245,000 jobs in November, and the unemployment rate edged down to 6.7 percent. We note that critics argue the estimate is too low due to problems within […]


A Twinkle for Sunday

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 6, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - A Twinkle for Sunday

“Twinkle, Twinkle, Little Star” existed first as a poem. Written by Jane Taylor and first published in 1806, it was titled simply “The Star.” It was not until 1838 that “Twinkle, Twinkle, Little Star” appeared in print as a song, in a collection called The Singing Master: First Class Tune Book, paired with the tune […]


Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control, Part 4

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 4, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control, Part 4

In Part 4 of our series on interest rates and yield curve control, we will examine two charts and two related tables to help explain yield curve control and implications for the Treasurys market. The first three parts are available here: Part 1, https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-interest-rates-and-yield-curve-control-part-1/ Part 2, https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-interest-rates-and-yield-curve-control-part-2/ Part 3, https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-interest-rates-and-yield-curve-control-part-3/. The first chart and table […]


The Cumberland State of Despair Index

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA & Patricia Healy, CFA & Tom Patterson, Post Date: December 3, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - The Cumberland State of Despair Index (Mousseau & Healy + Patterson)

The Cumberland State of Despair Index tries to capture the despair caused by unemployment brought on by the pandemic and COVID-19 infection rates on a state-by-state basis. This State of Despair Index will be applied as a variable in our credit-scoring model.


Decision Time for the UK and Europe

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: December 2, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Decision Time for the UK and Europe by William Witherell, Ph.D

Time is running out for the UK and Europe to reach an agreement on the terms under which the UK will leave the European Union (EU) at year end. Also, the member countries of the European Union have yet to reach final agreement on a much-needed, massive additional fiscal stimulus package. The substance and timing […]


Not As It Seems

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: December 1, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Not As It Seems (Eisenbeis)

On November 19, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin sent a letter to the Federal Reserve Board requesting a 90-day extension of several Fed programs to provide liquidity to financial markets, including the Commercial Paper Funding Facility, the Primary Dealer Credit Facility, the Money Market Liquidity Facility, and the Paycheck Protection Liquidity Facility. Those programs were backstopped by […]


Fed’s Path; also Why Barbell, Not Ladder

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 30, 2020

Fed's Path- also Why Barbell, Not Ladder

The Federal Reserve has grunted out small noises about maybe some future peeling back on the QE. Many analysts have dissected the Fed’s words and offered opinions. A warning for investors: “Watch what they do and not what they say.”


ESG Investing, Arctic Ice & Derek Riley (story at the end)

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 29, 2020

Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-David-Sunday-ESG investing, Arctic Ice & Derek Riley We expect the new Biden administration to reverse on a massive scale Trump’s deregulation of energy and to turn strongly to sustainable-energy policy. The implications for investing in ESG are huge. Cumberland holds positions in wind, solar and water and we expect to hold those positions for a long cycle of growth. Markets are already […]


Fed Vacancies – the Dilemma As of 11/23/2020

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: November 23, 2020

Federal Reserve Building

As the Biden administration begins to float the names of potential cabinet members, an interesting scenario and potential dilemma faces the Federal Reserve Board. Normally, there are seven members of the Federal Reserve Board, but at present there are only five, with two vacant positions. One vacancy has existed since March 2014 when Sarah Bloom […]



Why did five staffers at the Federal Reserve all claim to have pushed their general counsel overboard while rafting? Cumberland Advisors’ Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. shares some humor and other memories as he pays tribute to former Fed Chairman, Paul Volcker.
Watch in the player above or here: https://youtu.be/bqLwjQMTfJs

Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Nov 30, 2020 – Dec 04, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Matt McAleer & Equities / ETFs
-Indexes very, very strong
-What was the “tell” or “tells” for market action this week?
–Expanding breath – more sectors, more industries getting into the game
–The Russell 2000 Index up 3x the S&P 500 last 90 days
–The S&P 500, respectable 7% return over the last 90 days
–The Russell 2000 Index at 22% over the last 90 days
–Capital coming into the market was looking for areas that hadn’t participated previously
–This goes to the heart of how poorly positioned large baskets of capital were coming into this election
–Very difficult to fight headlines- we try to ignore or only pay attention to the reaction to them
—COVID & Election headlines cause money to leave the market
–Recall the iShares chart we previously highlighted in September demonstrated less than 5% of inflows went into equities
–That’s a paltry amount in terms of flow
-Let talk about a new chart that shows the NY Stock Exchange high/low index (I explain in video)
-The coming vaccines and loose Fed policy have finally resulted in rates coming up
-There’s some more confidence now in the economy and new year

John Mousseau & Fixed Income / Munis
-Bond Market- yields higher this week
-We saw a non-farm payroll increase this week, less than expected
-We know November numbers were bad, we saw increase in COVID-19 in many places
-What was surprising? Bond Market reaction sending bond prices lower and yields higher
-COVID-19 has gone from an unknown to a known
-Munis? Unchanged for the week.
-In the muni world, the market is already discounting the fact that it’s going to be winding down very soon. Supply has picked up a little bit but it will be gone in a couple of weeks and we have two big months of reinvestment, December & January, ahead of us.
-One more thing- when you look at the future, it’s looking more and more like we’re going to have split government, so the market is feeling pretty good that the status quo will probably be what you see with probably marginal tax rates and that’s it.
-We put out a new commentary this week titled “The Cumberland State of Despair Index.” It tries to capture the despair caused by unemployment brought on by the pandemic & COVID-19 infection rates on a state-by-state basis. This Index will be applied as a variable in our credit-scoring model.
-Read it here: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-the-cumberland-state-of-despair-index/

The Cumberland State of Despair Index

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/pKvdE9S8ja8


-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Send your feedback from today’s email/video to Matt. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


The Role of Nurses – Complimentary Video Replay

Cumberland Advisors is an Annual Sponsor
of the Global Interdependence Center

The Role of NursesAbout the Briefing
The Role of Nurses is the theme of this Executive Briefing. Attendees are offered context and perspective regarding the critical role that nurses play in the response to COVID-19 as well as changes to the nursing curriculum as a result of the pandemic.

Presentation Documents & Video Replay Link from December 3, 2020
https://www.interdependence.org/events/browse/the-role-of-nurses/


CA In The NewsDavid R. Kotok quoted by Wall Street Journal & ETF Trends
Small-Cap ETFs Could Benefit from Greater M&A Activity Ahead
by Max Chen December 4, 2020

U.S. companies raised cash this year after issuing record-breaking amounts of debt to strengthen their balance sheets in response to the Covid-19 pandemic disruptions on their normal operations. As of Nov. 30, U.S. companies issued over $2 trillion of investment-grade and high-yield bonds, the most on record in data going back to 2006. Meanwhile, many cut back on repurchases, dividends or capital expenditures given the uncertain market environment.

Furthermore, many anticipate companies to take advantage of this lower-for-longer interest rate environment to maintain high leverage to support growth ahead.

“It doesn’t make sense for cash-laden companies to pay down debt in this interest-rate climate,” David Kotok, chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors, told the WSJ. “That cash is going to be put to more shareholder-friendly uses.”

For example, some expect companies to engage in more mergers and acquisitions. M&A activity remains historically depressed for the fourth quarter, revealing many companies remain hesitant to chase after big purchases. As of Monday, about $313 billion in acquisitions in the U.S. have been announced for the fourth quarter, the lowest amount for the period since 2013.

Read the full article here: https://www.etftrends.com/equity-etf-channel/small-cap-etfs-could-benefit-from-greater-ma-activity-ahead/

Or the Wall Street Journal here (paywall): https://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-circle-largest-corporate-cash-hoard-ever-11607086917


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control, Part 4

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 4, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control, Part 4

In Part 4 of our series on interest rates and yield curve control, we will examine two charts and two related tables to help explain yield curve control and implications for the Treasurys market. The first three parts are available here: Part 1, https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-interest-rates-and-yield-curve-control-part-1/ Part 2, https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-interest-rates-and-yield-curve-control-part-2/ Part 3, https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-interest-rates-and-yield-curve-control-part-3/. The first chart and table […]


The Cumberland State of Despair Index

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA & Patricia Healy, CFA & Tom Patterson, Post Date: December 3, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - The Cumberland State of Despair Index (Mousseau & Healy + Patterson)

The Cumberland State of Despair Index tries to capture the despair caused by unemployment brought on by the pandemic and COVID-19 infection rates on a state-by-state basis. This State of Despair Index will be applied as a variable in our credit-scoring model.


Decision Time for the UK and Europe

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: December 2, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Decision Time for the UK and Europe by William Witherell, Ph.D

Time is running out for the UK and Europe to reach an agreement on the terms under which the UK will leave the European Union (EU) at year end. Also, the member countries of the European Union have yet to reach final agreement on a much-needed, massive additional fiscal stimulus package. The substance and timing […]


Not As It Seems

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: December 1, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Not As It Seems (Eisenbeis)

On November 19, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin sent a letter to the Federal Reserve Board requesting a 90-day extension of several Fed programs to provide liquidity to financial markets, including the Commercial Paper Funding Facility, the Primary Dealer Credit Facility, the Money Market Liquidity Facility, and the Paycheck Protection Liquidity Facility. Those programs were backstopped by […]


Fed’s Path; also Why Barbell, Not Ladder

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 30, 2020

Fed's Path- also Why Barbell, Not Ladder

The Federal Reserve has grunted out small noises about maybe some future peeling back on the QE. Many analysts have dissected the Fed’s words and offered opinions. A warning for investors: “Watch what they do and not what they say.”


ESG Investing, Arctic Ice & Derek Riley (story at the end)

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 29, 2020

Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-David-Sunday-ESG investing, Arctic Ice & Derek Riley We expect the new Biden administration to reverse on a massive scale Trump’s deregulation of energy and to turn strongly to sustainable-energy policy. The implications for investing in ESG are huge. Cumberland holds positions in wind, solar and water and we expect to hold those positions for a long cycle of growth. Markets are already […]


Fed Vacancies – the Dilemma As of 11/23/2020

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: November 23, 2020

Federal Reserve Building

As the Biden administration begins to float the names of potential cabinet members, an interesting scenario and potential dilemma faces the Federal Reserve Board. Normally, there are seven members of the Federal Reserve Board, but at present there are only five, with two vacant positions. One vacancy has existed since March 2014 when Sarah Bloom […]


The Ballet

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 22, 2020

Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-David-Sunday-The-BalletMy friend Steve sent this terrific musical dance video. Enjoy. Please notice how deeply you see ballet training in so many of the dancers we recognize.   Here it is: https://youtu.be/GC9tnARzIbU     The second time I watched it, I thought more particularly about ballet and, then, memories of performances unfurled in my mind. With […]


COVID, COVID, COVID! Recovery?

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 20, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - COVID, COVID, COVID! Recovery

A Bleak Short-Term COVID Outlook, Then Recovery Dawns Fact is, during the darkest hours before light breaks, dawn is already racing toward us across the surface of the turning world. That’s an image – a reassuring metaphor – that can sustain us now. America’s darkest hours in the COVID-19 pandemic lie just ahead, over the […]


Hurricanes, Bob Bunting, CAC

Author: Bob Bunting, Post Date: November 18, 2020

Bob Bunting - CEO, Climate Adaptation Center (CAC)

Municipal bond ratings are affected by the preparedness of the issuers for severe weather, the impacts of climate change, and other factors that may affect credit ratings. Cumberland Advisors takes a keen interest in the micro and macro details surrounding municipalities and weather events. Our colleague Bob Bunting, meteorologist, professor, and former executive at both […]


Will the NASDAQ Crash? Also: Helping Nurses!

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 16, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Will the NASDAQ Crash? - Also Helping Nurses!

Will the NASDAQ crash? We get that question often. Here’s a Bloomberg discussion on that subject and a Bloomberg chart comparing the NASDAQ bubble 20 years ago with the NASDAQ spike this year: “Nasdaq-100 Stumbles Near Dot-Com Era Record Versus Dow,” https://theonedave.tumblr.com/post/634605567333236737/nasdaq-100-stumbles-near-dot-com-era-record-versus. And here’s a Cumberland commentary we wrote at the peak of the NASDAQ […]


CA In The NewsDavid R. Kotok mentioned in nursing education article.
USF receives donation to support new training program for nurses during COVID-19
Sarasota Herald-Tribune – Dec 01, 2020

Excerpt below:

The University of South Florida Foundation has received a $57,000 donation from Sarasota businessman David Kotok and his partner Christine Schlesinger to support the development and delivery of a new continuing education training program by the USF Health College of Nursing.

The program will help nurses stay safe while treating patients during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The four-part educational series, “Frontline Nursing During COVID-19: A New Paradigm,” will be offered virtually to nurses locally, statewide, and nationally starting in early February.

Read full story here: https://www.heraldtribune.com/story/news/local/2020/12/01/donation-usf-support-new-training-program-for-nurses-during-covid-19/6477738002/


David R. Kotok Interviewed – Reviving Immigration Is Key To U.S. Turnaround
Nov 24, 2020 – Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Vonnie Quinn at Bloomberg Radio
Radio Player Banner - Listen Now
David R. Kotok, Chairman & Chief Investment Officer at Cumberland Advisors, on immigration, the Fed, Yellen as Treasury pick, and outlook for markets.

“Markets, as we see it, are looking beyond next spring. Its the classic 6 or 9 months forward looking, post-vaccine recovery. And you see some forecasts of the roaring 2020s…”

David R. Kotok (Radio)

Listen here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2020-11-24/reviving-immigration-is-key-to-u-s-turnaround-kotok-radio


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Nov 23, 2020 – Nov 27, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

John Mousseau & Fixed Income / Munis / Equities / ETFs
-Pretty good week for equities. Equity markets up over 2%, Dow up about 2%, NASDAQ up about 2 1/2%
-This was a reflection of a couple of things:
(1) More good vaccine news
(2) Higher comfort level with new Biden Administration, markets clearly embraced pick of Yellen
-Bond market yields slightly higher this week, both 10yr & 30yr slightly up
-Increase volatility in bonds
-Some pretty good buys in the bond market today
-We’re seeing the theme we’ve been talking about continue with higher yields slowly over time
-Munis? Quiet week, not much issuance. We expect issuance to pick up next week, particularly toward end of year.
-JFK Airport deal tremendously oversubscribed. We think it reflects demand for yield, even pandemically affected yield.
-All this means markets are in pretty good shape as we head toward year-end.

Watch this week’s update in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/R_OOIs91V0E

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails.

We hope you had a great Thanksgiving and we’ll see you next week.
-John Mousseau & Cumberland Advisors

Please send Matt McAleer any feedback from today’s email/video. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


David R. Kotok Interviewed – Reviving Immigration Is Key To U.S. Turnaround
Nov 24, 2020 – Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Vonnie Quinn at Bloomberg Radio
Cumberland's David Kotok on Bloomberg Radio
David R. Kotok, Chairman & Chief Investment Officer at Cumberland Advisors, on immigration, the Fed, Yellen as Treasury pick, and outlook for markets.

“Markets, as we see it, are looking beyond next spring. Its the classic 6 or 9 months forward looking, post-vaccine recovery. And you see some forecasts of the roaring 2020s…”

David R. Kotok (Radio)

Listen here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2020-11-24/reviving-immigration-is-key-to-u-s-turnaround-kotok-radio


Small Business Saturday is sandwiched between Black Friday and Cyber Monday. It’s a national initiative to shop local and support mom-n-pops and your hometown businesses.

Small Business Saturday

Learn more about Small Business Saturday at the following links:

#ShopSmall along the Suncoast for Small Business Saturday
By Alejandro Romero – SNN TV
https://www.snntv.com/story/42975603/shopsmall-along-the-suncoast-for-small-business-saturday

COVID-19 makes Small Business Saturday all the more important
Laura Finaldi – Sarasota Herald-Tribune
https://www.heraldtribune.com/story/business/columns/2020/11/27/supporting-sarasota-manatee-small-businesses-during-covid-19/6393233002/

Giving Tuesday and Small Business Saturday
WWSB newscast
https://www.mysuncoast.com/video/2020/11/27/giving-tuesday-small-business-saturday/

Small Business Saturday brings hope to local businesses
By ELAINE ALLEN-EMRICH – https://www.yoursun.com
https://www.yoursun.com/englewood/small-business-saturday-brings-hope-to-local-businesses/article_b8d84bee-2f4a-11eb-9e07-bb66f8269ef3.html

Manatee retailers feel boost from Small Business Saturday
By MATT M. JOHNSON – Bradenton.com
https://www.bradenton.com/news/business/article46788940.html

Small Business Saturday has new meaning during pandemic
By Laura Layden – Naples Daily News
https://www.naplesnews.com/story/money/business/local/2020/11/25/americans-encouraged-shop-small-all-year-round-amid-coronavirus-pandemic/6324107002/


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


Sturgis!

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 24, 2020

Sturgis! Dear readers, this piece about Sturgis and its aftermath has been weeks in preparation. We are sending it now because we believe that Sturgis was the largest of the super-spreader events that have occurred in the United States – half a million people without any restrictions. And we believe that learning can occur from examining what […]


Fed Vacancies – the Dilemma As of 11/23/2020

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: November 23, 2020

Federal Reserve Building As the Biden administration begins to float the names of potential cabinet members, an interesting scenario and potential dilemma faces the Federal Reserve Board. Normally, there are seven members of the Federal Reserve Board, but at present there are only five, with two vacant positions. One vacancy has existed since March 2014 when Sarah Bloom […]


The Ballet

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 22, 2020

Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-David-Sunday-The-Ballet My friend Steve sent this terrific musical dance video. Enjoy. Please notice how deeply you see ballet training in so many of the dancers we recognize.   Here it is: https://youtu.be/GC9tnARzIbU     The second time I watched it, I thought more particularly about ballet and, then, memories of performances unfurled in my mind. With […]


COVID, COVID, COVID! Recovery?

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 20, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - COVID, COVID, COVID! Recovery

A Bleak Short-Term COVID Outlook, Then Recovery Dawns Fact is, during the darkest hours before light breaks, dawn is already racing toward us across the surface of the turning world. That’s an image – a reassuring metaphor – that can sustain us now. America’s darkest hours in the COVID-19 pandemic lie just ahead, over the […]


Hurricanes, Bob Bunting, CAC

Author: Bob Bunting, Post Date: November 18, 2020

Bob Bunting - CEO, Climate Adaptation Center (CAC)

Municipal bond ratings are affected by the preparedness of the issuers for severe weather, the impacts of climate change, and other factors that may affect credit ratings. Cumberland Advisors takes a keen interest in the micro and macro details surrounding municipalities and weather events. Our colleague Bob Bunting, meteorologist, professor, and former executive at both […]


Will the NASDAQ Crash? Also: Helping Nurses!

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 16, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Will the NASDAQ Crash? - Also Helping Nurses!

Will the NASDAQ crash? We get that question often. Here’s a Bloomberg discussion on that subject and a Bloomberg chart comparing the NASDAQ bubble 20 years ago with the NASDAQ spike this year: “Nasdaq-100 Stumbles Near Dot-Com Era Record Versus Dow,” https://theonedave.tumblr.com/post/634605567333236737/nasdaq-100-stumbles-near-dot-com-era-record-versus. And here’s a Cumberland commentary we wrote at the peak of the NASDAQ […]


Flying to Florida

Author: , Post Date: November 15, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Flying to Florida

Investors and clients ask about the transportation sector and specifically airlines.  The outlook is dependent on travelers’ perceived personal safety (COVID vaccines and treatment options) in addition to economic recovery that can generate the incomes to cover the costs.  There isn’t much more we can add to that investment perspective. We do field direct questions […]


Municipal Employment

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: November 12, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Municipal Employment - Patricia Healy, CFAThe positive jobs growth news, showing an increase of 638,000 jobs in October and a full one percent reduction in the unemployment rate to 6.9%, masked a decline in government employment. Private jobs were up by 906,000, led by an increase of 271,000 in hospitality and leisure, a sector that has been hit particularly hard […]


11-11-11

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 11, 2020

Field-of-poppies-blooming-red-1280x720

On November 11, 1918, President Woodrow Wilson signed the agreement that ended the fighting in World War 1, a conflict that engulfed 30 nations and cost millions of lives (estimates vary). In June of 1919, the Treaty of Versailles would attempt to forge the terms of the peace. Months later, on November 11, 1919, Wilson […]


Singles’ Day and Alibaba

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: November 10, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Singles’ Day and Alibaba (Leo Chen)

November 11 is Singles’ Day in China. It is an unofficial shopping holiday that was started by Alibaba in 2009. It is called Singles’ Day because the repeated number “1” in “11.11” refers to single people in Chinese. Although Singles’ Day is often compared to Black Friday in the US, it is actually more similar […]


China Update – Ant Versus the State

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: November 9, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by William "Bill" Witherell, Ph.D.

Last week, the Ant Group was expected to list in Shanghai and Hong Kong the largest IPO in history. However, on Tuesday, November 3, the Shanghai Stock Exchange announced it had postponed the company’s listing, citing “major issues” that might cause it “not to meet the listing conditions or disclosure requirements.” The IPO listing was […]


The Role of Nurses

Cumberland Advisors is an Annual Sponsor
of the Global Interdependence Center

The Role of Nurses

About the Briefing

The Role of Nurses is the theme of this Executive Briefing. Attendees are offered context and perspective regarding the critical role that nurses play in the response to COVID-19 as well as changes to the nursing curriculum as a result of the pandemic.

Thursday, December 3, 2020 | 12:00 – 1:00 p.m. ET

When registering, GIC encourages you to participate in their
audience Q&A by submitting a question for the speakers.

This Executive Briefing will be held via Zoom.

FREE REGISTRATION HERE


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Nov 16, 2020 – Nov 20, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Matt McAleer & Equities / ETFs
-Small caps continue to get a bid
-Barbells can be used with equities – I explain.
-We want to continue to stay flexible
-What will the third decade hold for us? Being flexible is our approach.
-Respect valuation and momentum.
-Broadening our view of what’s working needs to be respected
-See you next week!

 

John Mousseau & Fixed Income / Munis
-Update on Bond Market: Yield curve flattened this week
-COVID events taking a toll, bringing yields down a bit
-Higher than expected jobless claims this week
-Munis: Big demand, yields down, last stretch of supply, some deals 15-20 times oversubscribed
-NJ Bonds were in demand: 25B in orders for a supply of 4B. That is a lot of demand for a pandemicly affected security.
-There is an ongoing demand for yield out there, even for pandemicly affected issuers if the price is right.
-What’s hanging over the Muni Market? Discussions between Fed Chairman Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.
-Mnuchin would like to wind down some programs, I explain.
-Important thing to remember: The Muni Market is functioning great. Not many issuers have has to go to the municipal liquidity authority.
-If there is any back-off in the Muni Market, it’s probably a good opportunity to buy some bonds at higher yields
-We wish you the best of holidays

 

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/C0yVJZ39rNc

 

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors
Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/

Cumberland Advisors In The News

Patricia Healy Featured
CUMBERLAND COMMENT: Government employment falls
Nov 16, 2020

The positive jobs growth news, showing an increase of 638,000 jobs in October and a full 1 percent reduction in the unemployment rate to 6.9%, masked a decline in government employment. Private jobs were up by 906,000, led by an increase of 271,000 in hospitality and leisure, a sector that has been hit particularly hard by pandemic shutdowns. Government jobs, however, fell by 268,000. The majority of the losses were in state and local education, 61,000 and 98,000, respectively. The loss of 147,000 temporary 2020 census workers contributed to a net loss in federal employment of 138,000. The loss of public education jobs as well as private education job losses of 21,500 is likely reflective of the extent of remote learning and the reduced need for support staff.

State and local employment constitute 13% of the total non-farm payroll, and slow growth in state and local employment after last decade’s financial crisis contributed to a slow recovery.

Full article: https://www.heraldtribune.com/story/business/briefs/2020/11/16/patricia-healy-government-employment-falls/6248751002/


John Mousseau Quoted
Muni yields fall as new-issues oversubscribed; ICI reports inflows
Nov 18, 2020 – By Chip Barnett, Christine Albano

Dan Urbanowicz, director and fixed income portfolio manager at Washington Crossing Advisors said “following-through on the $38 billion in orders for New Jersey’s GO deal yesterday, most of the new issues today, including Massachusetts GO, are oversubscribed and repricing 5 to 10 basis points lower in yield.”

Elsewhere, market technicals are being impacted by the COVID-19 climate.

“We’re seeing a renewed supply/demand imbalance in the market,” he said.

The significant oversubscription was a sign of the times, according to John Mousseau, president of Cumberland Advisors.

“Pandemically affected yield sells,” he said after the pricing.

Full article (Paywall): https://www.bondbuyer.com/news/muni-yields-fall-new-issues-oversubscribed-inflows-return


David R. Kotok Quoted
The US economy is about to shrink, JPMorgan warns
Nov 20, 2020 – By Matt Egan, CNN Business

The federal government can’t agree on how to treat the renewed economic weakness. Republicans and Democrats have repeatedly failed to reach a deal on new fiscal relief, setting up a scenario where 12 million Americans could lose benefits by the end of the year.

“Congress has failed the country,” said David Kotok, chief investment officer of Cumberland Advisors.

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, slammed Congress for an “appalling dereliction of duty.”

The Treasury Department added to the mess Thursday by yanking $455 billion of funds the Federal Reserve was using for emergency lending programs. The Fed issued a statement opposing the move, marking a rare public dispute between the central bank and Treasury Department -— in the middle of a crisis, no less.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said those funds can be used by Congress to stimulate the economy, but there’s no guarantee a deal can be reached there. And this is a bizarre time to remove ammo the Fed is using to fight the crisis.

“Trump would have signed a bill pre-election. Now he is unpredictable and our national government seems to be in chaos,” Kotok said.

Full article: https://www.kitv.com/story/42943947/the-us-economy-is-about-to-shrink-jpmorgan-warns


David R. Kotok Cited
USF Nursing Course to Address Covid-19, Burnout
Nov 20, 2020 -By Hannah Wallace

This February, the USF College of Nursing will offer a series of virtual courses for frontline nurses about staying safe and healthy—both physically and mentally—while working in a pandemic. “Frontline Nursing During Covid-19: A New Paradigm” will address pandemic-related concerns like Covid-19 pathology, self-care and risk-mitigation, empowerment and self-advocacy, identifying limitations and asking for help.

The continuing-education webinars will be made available free for registrants throughout the country, thanks to a donation from Sarasota’s David Kotok and Christine Schlesinger. Nurses who complete the program will be eligible for continuing-education credits, which are a necessary part of license renewal.

Full article: https://www.sarasotamagazine.com/health-and-fitness/2020/11/usf-nursing-course-to-address-covid-19-burnout


John Mousseau Quoted
Holiday calendar slumps to $1.2B; munis firm after week-long rally
Nov 20, 2020 – By Chip Barnett, Christine Albano

The long end of the municipal market firmed Friday as the expected new-issue calendar slipped to about $1 billion for the Thanksgiving-shortened trading week.

Yields on top-rated bonds fell about a basis point on AAA scales as yields fell about eight to 13 basis points in total since Nov. 13.

Treasury yields slipped as stocks turned mixed Friday while the markets watched the disagreements between the White House and the Federal Reserve over emergency lending programs such as the Municipal Liquidity Facility.

“The market is in full holiday mode,” John Mousseau, president of Cumberland Advisors, said Friday, noting the $3.7 billion New Jersey general obligation deal had tremendous follow-through when it broke free to trade Thursday but otherwise munis were quiet..

“Most people are looking to the period after Thanksgiving,” to get back into the market when new issuance picks up between then and the next holiday season, Mousseau said.

Full article (Paywall): https://www.bondbuyer.com/news/holiday-calendar-slumps-to-1-2b-munis-firm-after-week-long-rally


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


COVID, COVID, COVID! Recovery?

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 20, 2020
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - COVID, COVID, COVID! Recovery  

A Bleak Short-Term COVID Outlook, Then Recovery Dawns Fact is, during the darkest hours before light breaks, dawn is already racing toward us across the surface of the turning world. That’s an image – a reassuring metaphor – that can sustain us now. America’s darkest hours in the COVID-19 pandemic lie just ahead, over the […]


Hurricanes, Bob Bunting, CAC

Author: Bob Bunting, Post Date: November 18, 2020
Bob Bunting - CEO, Climate Adaptation Center (CAC)  

Municipal bond ratings are affected by the preparedness of the issuers for severe weather, the impacts of climate change, and other factors that may affect credit ratings. Cumberland Advisors takes a keen interest in the micro and macro details surrounding municipalities and weather events. Our colleague Bob Bunting, meteorologist, professor, and former executive at both […]


Will the NASDAQ Crash? Also: Helping Nurses!

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 16, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Will the NASDAQ Crash? - Also Helping Nurses!  

Will the NASDAQ crash? We get that question often. Here’s a Bloomberg discussion on that subject and a Bloomberg chart comparing the NASDAQ bubble 20 years ago with the NASDAQ spike this year: “Nasdaq-100 Stumbles Near Dot-Com Era Record Versus Dow,” https://theonedave.tumblr.com/post/634605567333236737/nasdaq-100-stumbles-near-dot-com-era-record-versus. And here’s a Cumberland commentary we wrote at the peak of the NASDAQ […]


Flying to Florida

Author: , Post Date: November 15, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Flying to Florida  

Investors and clients ask about the transportation sector and specifically airlines.  The outlook is dependent on travelers’ perceived personal safety (COVID vaccines and treatment options) in addition to economic recovery that can generate the incomes to cover the costs.  There isn’t much more we can add to that investment perspective. We do field direct questions […]


Municipal Employment

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: November 12, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Municipal Employment - Patricia Healy, CFAThe positive jobs growth news, showing an increase of 638,000 jobs in October and a full one percent reduction in the unemployment rate to 6.9%, masked a decline in government employment. Private jobs were up by 906,000, led by an increase of 271,000 in hospitality and leisure, a sector that has been hit particularly hard […]


11-11-11

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 11, 2020

Field-of-poppies-blooming-red-1280x720

On November 11, 1918, President Woodrow Wilson signed the agreement that ended the fighting in World War 1, a conflict that engulfed 30 nations and cost millions of lives (estimates vary). In June of 1919, the Treaty of Versailles would attempt to forge the terms of the peace. Months later, on November 11, 1919, Wilson […]


Singles’ Day and Alibaba

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: November 10, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Singles’ Day and Alibaba (Leo Chen)

November 11 is Singles’ Day in China. It is an unofficial shopping holiday that was started by Alibaba in 2009. It is called Singles’ Day because the repeated number “1” in “11.11” refers to single people in Chinese. Although Singles’ Day is often compared to Black Friday in the US, it is actually more similar […]


China Update – Ant Versus the State

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: November 9, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by William "Bill" Witherell, Ph.D.

Last week, the Ant Group was expected to list in Shanghai and Hong Kong the largest IPO in history. However, on Tuesday, November 3, the Shanghai Stock Exchange announced it had postponed the company’s listing, citing “major issues” that might cause it “not to meet the listing conditions or disclosure requirements.” The IPO listing was […]


Hurricane Roxcy or Hurricane Bob?

Author: , Post Date: November 8, 2020
Hurricane Roxcy or Hurricane Bob

 

“Biden’s proposals to increase taxes on the wealthy and corporations – not to mention a $2 trillion plan to fight climate change – would stand virtually no chance in a Mitch McConnell-led Republican Senate” (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2020-11-05/a-biden-agenda-might-stall-before-it-starts).  Let’s devote Sunday to the climate. Climate change is a big agenda item for Biden & Co. But a gridlocked […]


Electoral College Timeline

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 6, 2020

Here’s the link to the Congressional Research Service report on the Electoral College timeline. Hat tip Politico. https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11641 David R. Kotok Chairman of the Board & Chief Investment Officer Email | Bio Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and […]


Wave Bye to Blue Wave – Bonds

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: November 4, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Wave Bye to Blue Wave – Bonds

Though we are still sorting out last night’s election, the so-called “blue wave” of a Democratic sweep of the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives didn’t happen. At this hour, the White House is still not decided; it appears the Senate will NOT switch and will stay Republican; and the Republicans made a few […]


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Nov 09, 2020 – Nov 13, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer and John Mousseau, CFA

John Mousseau & Fixed Income / Munis
-This week, bond yields up
-COVID vaccine caused a bit of euphoria on Monday
-Muni Yields? No change this week.
-Little muni supply, we don’t expect much the rest of the year
-We expect supply to increase next year
-Expected election outcome looks favorable to munis
-Next week? We’ll keep an eye on key indicators. Without stimulus, a potential for economic slowdown persists.Matt McAleer & Equities / ETFs
-Lot of “nice” volatility this week
-Plenty of demand in small and mid-cap space – a continuing theme
-Some rotation from large to small and from growth to value
-This week, NASDAQ 100 down, Russel 2000 up 6%, S&P up 2% – something to keep an eye on.
-Large cap growth has been so dominant for the last 5 years that you can get into a way of thinking in terms of allocation that money will always follow what’s working
-I have a chart to share with you and what it means
-Next week, 2 weeks from now, 3 weeks from now, will give us a lot information in terms of what this market will do in the next 60-90 days.
-Really nice performance coming out of multiple indexes and multiple sectors.
Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/mCxwHpOS_Z4

 

Mark you calendars for Tuesday, November 17, 2020 between Noon and 1:30 pm for a lively and informative virtual discussion on “Post-Election Financial Markets” with a panel of professionals from the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee campus and Cumberland Advisors. John and I will be featured panelists along with others from our firm including David R. Kotok, Robert A. Eisenbeis, PhD, Patricia M. Healy, CFA, Bill Witherell, PhD, and Leo Chen, PhD.

Post-Election Financial Markets

More info: https://www.sarasotamanatee.usf.edu/events/post-election-financial-markets.aspx

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


Cumberland Advisors In The News

Sarasota Herald-Tribune mentions Cumberland Advisors
Financial experts, USF faculty to host discussion about post-election financial markets
November 13, 2020

Financial experts from USF’s Muma College of Business and Sarasota-based Cumberland Advisors will host a special discussion on Tuesday from noon to 1:30 p.m. to help investors better understand the presidential election’s impact on financial markets and the economy.

The 90-minute “Post-Election Financial Markets” webinar is free and open to the public. Register at sarasotamanatee.usf.edu/postelection. The event will be comprised of three panel discussions followed by a Q&A session.

More: https://www.heraldtribune.com/story/news/local/2020/11/13/usf-host-discussion-post-election-financial-markets/6277151002/


Washington Post quotes David R. Kotok
Voters choose Biden to rebuild U.S. economy battered by
pandemic

November 07, 2020

President-elect Joe Biden overcame President Trump’s attempt to ride a record economic rebound to reelection, as voters showed more concern for the troubled economy’s future than appreciation for its pre-coronavirus past.

Trade war and tariffs reversed much of Trump’s first two years in economic growth,” David Kotok, chief investment officer for Cumberland Advisors, wrote in an email.

Trump’s trade war also may have hurt him in the politically crucial industrial Midwest. States that rely on imported parts from China, such as Michigan, were especially hit hard by the tariffs on Chinese products that the president imposed in 2018, according to a new study by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/11/07/us-economy-biden-election/


The Philadelphia Inquirer quotes David R. Kotok
Wall St. betting on Biden win, GOP Senate, smaller stimulus
November 05, 2020

Muni bonds: “As the economy improves and we get to a vaccine, we should see higher (interest) rates no matter who is finally elected President,” wrote David Kotok, municipal bond and fixed income investor with Cumberland Advisors. For now, however, interest rates remain low.

“Munis should be fine,” he wrote, although these bonds “will probably not get a tax-increase boost right away, from a demand/supply standpoint they are in very good shape.”

Until a second stimulus bill passes Congress, “we may see some additional actions from the Federal Reserve to shore up markets if needed. We also expect further jawboning from the Fed to Congress on the importance of additional stimulus.”
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/california-s-boom-collapses-with-fires-adding–1-1-billion-toll-58482.html


Bloomberg Markets
P&L Podcast interviews David R. Kotok
November 04, 2020

David Kotok, Chairman & Chief Investment Officer at Cumberland Advisors, on bond markets and his current election outlook. Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence LLC, former adviser to the Dallas Fed, discusses how the election has impacted her outlook for the economy, and a preview of the FOMC. Timothy O’Brien, Senior Columnist for Bloomberg Opinion, on the election results. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Vonnie Quinn.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/no-plausible-legal-grounds-to-contest-election-levitt/id326301337?i=1000497237365


University of South Florida Foundation recognizes grant from David R. Kotok and Christine Schlesinger
Donation to USF will support new training program for nurses during COVID-19
November 13, 2020

The University of South Florida Foundation has received a generous $57,000 donation from Sarasota businessman David Kotok and his partner Christine Schlesinger to support the development and delivery of a new continuing education training program by the USF Health College of Nursing. The program will help nurses stay safe while treating patients during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The four-part educational series, “Frontline Nursing During COVID-19: A New Paradigm,” will be offered virtually to nurses locally, statewide, and nationally starting in early February.

Kotok said he was inspired to work with USF on this unique program after listening to a presentation by Usha Menon, interim dean of the College of Nursing, during a recent Sarasota-Manatee campus virtual event hosted by Regional Chancellor Karen Holbrook.

https://www.sarasotamanatee.usf.edu/news/2020/donation-to-usf-will-support-new-training-program-for-nurses-during-covid.aspx


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


Municipal Employment

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: November 12, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Municipal Employment - Patricia Healy, CFAThe positive jobs growth news, showing an increase of 638,000 jobs in October and a full one percent reduction in the unemployment rate to 6.9%, masked a decline in government employment. Private jobs were up by 906,000, led by an increase of 271,000 in hospitality and leisure, a sector that has been hit particularly hard […]


11-11-11

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 11, 2020

Field-of-poppies-blooming-red-1280x720

On November 11, 1918, President Woodrow Wilson signed the agreement that ended the fighting in World War 1, a conflict that engulfed 30 nations and cost millions of lives (estimates vary). In June of 1919, the Treaty of Versailles would attempt to forge the terms of the peace. Months later, on November 11, 1919, Wilson […]


Singles’ Day and Alibaba

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: November 10, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Singles’ Day and Alibaba (Leo Chen)

November 11 is Singles’ Day in China. It is an unofficial shopping holiday that was started by Alibaba in 2009. It is called Singles’ Day because the repeated number “1” in “11.11” refers to single people in Chinese. Although Singles’ Day is often compared to Black Friday in the US, it is actually more similar […]


China Update – Ant Versus the State

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: November 9, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by William "Bill" Witherell, Ph.D.

Last week, the Ant Group was expected to list in Shanghai and Hong Kong the largest IPO in history. However, on Tuesday, November 3, the Shanghai Stock Exchange announced it had postponed the company’s listing, citing “major issues” that might cause it “not to meet the listing conditions or disclosure requirements.” The IPO listing was […]


Hurricane Roxcy or Hurricane Bob?

Author: , Post Date: November 8, 2020
Hurricane Roxcy or Hurricane Bob

 

“Biden’s proposals to increase taxes on the wealthy and corporations – not to mention a $2 trillion plan to fight climate change – would stand virtually no chance in a Mitch McConnell-led Republican Senate” (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2020-11-05/a-biden-agenda-might-stall-before-it-starts).  Let’s devote Sunday to the climate. Climate change is a big agenda item for Biden & Co. But a gridlocked […]


Electoral College Timeline

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 6, 2020

Here’s the link to the Congressional Research Service report on the Electoral College timeline. Hat tip Politico. https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11641 David R. Kotok Chairman of the Board & Chief Investment Officer Email | Bio Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and […]


Wave Bye to Blue Wave – Bonds

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: November 4, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Wave Bye to Blue Wave – Bonds

Though we are still sorting out last night’s election, the so-called “blue wave” of a Democratic sweep of the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives didn’t happen. At this hour, the White House is still not decided; it appears the Senate will NOT switch and will stay Republican; and the Republicans made a few […]


Yogi Response

Author: , Post Date: November 2, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Yogi ResponseCommentaries regularly create opportunities to broaden the conversation with readers. A number of readers responded to my take on the election, “Yogi: It Aint Over,” posted on October 14 (https://www.cumber.com/yogi-it-aint-over/). Some readers questioned the DataTrek outline of stock market results. They speculated that, since a new president takes office four months into a federal budget year, […]


Men

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 1, 2020

Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-David-Sunday-MenOn October 18, we dedicated our Sunday morning missive to women. (See “Women,” https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-women/.) Men may not fall into that gender category, but they are part of the group that made that gender possible. So, this October blue moon, micro-moon, Halloween weekend, Sunday missive is about men. Please note that the majority of the politicians […]


60/40 is not dead yet

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 29, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - 60-40 is not dead yet

“The 60% stock/40% bond portfolio is largely a relic of the past, with alternatives likely to become a bigger portion of investors’ portfolios over the next decade, asset management chiefs said during a panel discussion at the Milken Global Institute Conference on Wednesday.” (“The 60/40 Portfolio Is Dead. Here’s What Will Replace It,” https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-60-40-portfolio-is-dead-heres-what-will-replace-it-51602757800) We disagree […]


Q&A with Christopher Whalen

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 27, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Q&A with Chris Whalen

Christopher Whalen is a longtime friend and confidant, so this interview with him inevitably reflects the sorts of biases that result from engaging, enlightening conversations over many years. Many know Chris from TV appearances or press quotes or social media commentary. Others may know his three successful books: Inflated: How Money and Debt Built the […]


Post-Election Financial Markets

Tuesday, Nov. 17, 2020
Noon to 1:30 p.m.
Via Microsoft Teams

Join us for a lively and informative virtual discussion on Post-Election Financial Markets with a panel of experts from the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee campus and Cumberland Advisors.

Free Registration


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.