Tag Archives: Year-End Forecast Notes

image_pdfimage_print

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note #7 More gun violence

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 26, 2019
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Year-End-&-2020-Forecast-Notes 7 - More gun violence

This holiday season has come with ill tidings with respect to gun violence: “At least 28 people were wounded in 3 separate shootings across these 3 states this weekend,” CNN, Dec. 23, 2019, https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/23/us/three-shootings-baltimore-minnesota-chicago/index.html “13 people were shot at a Chicago house party honoring a man killed earlier this year,” CNN, Dec. 22, 2019, https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/22/us/chicago-shooting-sunday/index.html […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note #6: Jobs & Wages

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 13, 2019
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Year-End-&-2020-Forecast-Notes 6 - Jobs & Wages

Markets greeted the most recent monthly employment report with a rousing cheer and a robust and broadening stock market rally; bonds reacted to an improved outlook based on this report; and interest rates rose while the futures market of the short-term policy rate (fed funds) adjusted to a lower likelihood of a rate cutting sequence […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note #5: Energy

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 11, 2019
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Year-End-&-2020-Forecast-Notes 5 - Energy

The worst-performing US stock market sector in 2019 is energy. In retrospect, we regret that we held a position in it. Our rationale failed so far and the timing was clearly poor.  But we did hold energy and we do still do. Our focus has been on domestic US energy because we believed it is […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note #4: Inflation

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 6, 2019
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Year-End-&-2020-Forecast-Notes 4 - Inflation

The outlook for inflation and for inflation-sensitive financial instruments is still highly uncertain. Note that this prognosis includes TIPS on the bond side and certain inflation-sensitive stock groups on the equity side. The world’s mature economies have been trying to get inflation up to 2% or higher for many years. They’ve had no success. An […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note #3: Potential Volatility Driven by US Politics

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 5, 2019
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Year-End-&-2020-Forecast-Notes 3 - Potential Volatility Driven by US Politics

US politics will be a closely watched, bubbling pot in 2020, and the media will boil over every news item. That said, it is Super Tuesday (March 3) which becomes the key date for Democrats. Republican challengers to Trump seem to be non-starters as best as we can determine. Perhaps the New Hampshire or Massachusetts […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note #2: A Vulnerable Trajectory for Stock Prices

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 4, 2019
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - A Vulnerable Trajectory for Stock Prices

In addition to Trade War uncertainty, US stock markets must grapple with problematic earnings estimates for 2020. Typical year-start estimates are higher than actual outcomes, as a bias toward optimism appears around the year-end holiday time. A good example is 2019, when year-start estimates for the S&P 500 were in the $174–178 range. The actual […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note #1: US–China Trade War

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 3, 2019
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Year-End-&-2020-Forecast-Notes 1 - US–China Trade War

In our opinion, investors should not be deceived by any promise of a definitive Trump Trade War settlement. It isn’t in the cards. The best outcome is a truce, and even that will be more like a ceasefire. As of this writing, U.S.-China tariff talks continue, and a phase one trade deal is still expected […]