We have now witnessed the effects of dysfunctional politics on the stock markets as well as the bond markets and the credit markets. Readers may ponder the appellation: “the Gaetz market."   Here’s a sample of the media discussion around the House Member who brought down Speaker McCarthy:  

Summary

It was a very tough third quarter for the bond markets in general and for the muni market in particular. The table below lays out the quarter.  

As this Sunday draft is being edited for final publication, the government shutdown of the United States has been averted with a stopgap bill — but there are already costs incurred with a negative impact on interest rates reflected in CDS pricing.  

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) has a full-disclosure discussion of what a “government shutdown” means and how it happens. There is also some important history in their working paper.

I thank readers for their responses to our commentaries, including this one on “Life Expectancy”: https://www.cumber.com/market-commentary/life-expectancy.  

In response to some of our writings about the economic costs of global warming and the lack of coordinated mitigation, Thornton (Tip) Parker ([email protected]) wrote this commentary which we have agreed to share with readers.

Here’s an argument about why this time (2023–24) under Fed Chair Powell is different from the 1970s inflation fight under Fed Chairs Burns and, subsequently, Volcker. We are ignoring the brief Fed Chair Miller interregnum (March 1978 to August 1979). We especially want to thank Mike Konczal for…