Insights
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.
Author(s): David R. Kotok | Tue March 14, 2017
Standing where I stood to snap the photograph, a casual observer wouldn't particularly notice the structure or reflect on its history. The tourist's eye is attracted instead to the jungle's green canopy, the swirling waters of the river, or monkeys and a toucan. There are no markings now on this…
Author(s): Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. | Sat March 11, 2017
The next FOMC meeting is March 14–15. Speculation has now reached a fever pitch that the Committee will indeed decide to raise the policy rate at this meeting. Traders have upped the probability of this happening to 100%. This increase in the probability has been steadily given more and more…
Author(s): David R. Kotok | Fri March 10, 2017
We've traveled with a full Camp K contingent to Argentina. Diverse views have been exchanged among policy makers, entrepreneurs, investors, and investment professionals, all under Chatham House rules.
A longer essay will be forthcoming. My initial takeaway is worrisome. We have talked…
Author(s): David R. Kotok | Thu March 9, 2017
We open this commentary with a link to a column by Nicholas Kristof entitled, “However Much Trump Spends on Arms, We Can’t Bomb Ebola": https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/02/opinion/however-much-trump-spends-on-arms-we-cant-bomb-ebola.html.
We can't bomb Zika, either.
We continue to…
Author(s): Leo Chen, Ph.D. | Wed March 8, 2017
Just as ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) and NIRP (negative interest rate policy) dilute bond-pricing models, the Trump rally defies equity pricing models. The stock market has soared for over 90 days consecutively without a 1% daily drop and has become a one-sided bet. Although both fundamental…
Author(s): Bill Witherell, Ph.D. | Tue March 7, 2017
Economic data for February provided clear indications that the global economy is experiencing a broad recovery, with the major advanced economies growing close to or even above their estimated potential growth rates. This positive macroeconomic environment is providing a tailwind for equity…
Author(s): David R. Kotok | Fri March 3, 2017
Bill Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, has agreed to keynote the March 30, 2017, Financial Literacy Day, to be held at the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee. Visit usfsm.edu/event/financial-literacy-day/ to register and to view the…
Author(s): David R. Kotok | Wed March 1, 2017
First, we suggest reading this February 24, 2017, note in the Washington Post by Neil Howe: washingtonpost.com/entertainment/books/where-did-steve-bannon-get-his-worldview-from-my-book/, since the following discusses a “turning” that may be approaching with the central bank of the United States…
Author(s): David R. Kotok | Wed March 1, 2017
Cumberland Advisors is pleased to announce a philanthropic gift to the six universities in the greater Sarasota area – a 12-terminal Bloomberg financial laboratory that will be housed at the University of South Florida’s Business School. All six Sarasota-Manatee “C4 Multiversity” education…
Author(s): Leo Chen, Ph.D. | Sat February 25, 2017
Last week we shared a strategy using gold and bonds to outperform the market (cumber.com/outperform-the-market-look-no-further-gold-bonds-and-leverage/). This week we are going to introduce a strategy that uses the “golden ratio” rather than gold to beat the S&P 500. Since today is Friday…