Excerpt from BILL WITHERELL: China’s economic slowdown and financial markets
The Shanghai Stock Exchange was the worst-performing major stock market in 2018, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index falling 25 percent over the course of the year. Concerns about a slowing economy deepened in the second half as current indicators turned downward surprisingly. While many economists cautioned that a major slowdown, much less a recession, was not likely in China, the sentiments of investors, domestic consumers and businesses have all clearly worsened.
Our base-case expectation is that the slowdown will prove to be modest, with the pace of economic activity beginning to pick up in the second quarter of 2019. But the chances are that if this outlook proves wrong, it will be for the worse, not the better.
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