Insights
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.
Author(s): David R. Kotok | Mon September 25, 2023
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) has a full-disclosure discussion of what a “government shutdown” means and how it happens. There is also some important history in their working paper.
Author(s): David R. Kotok | Sun September 17, 2023
I thank readers for their responses to our commentaries, including this one on “Life Expectancy”: https://www.cumber.com/market-commentary/life-expectancy.
Author(s): David R. Kotok | Thu September 14, 2023
Here’s an argument about why this time (2023–24) under Fed Chair Powell is different from the 1970s inflation fight under Fed Chairs Burns and, subsequently, Volcker. We are ignoring the brief Fed Chair Miller interregnum (March 1978 to August 1979). We especially want to thank Mike Konczal for…
Author(s): David R. Kotok | Mon September 11, 2023
Twenty-two years ago, I walked out of the Marriott Hotel abutting the South Tower of the World Trade Center. The North Tower was already on fire. The plenary session of NABE (National Association for Business Economics) had abruptly stopped its breakfast meeting and was rapidly exiting the…
Author(s): David R. Kotok | Thu September 7, 2023
Texas declared an emergency from heat, then withdrew it. https://www.fox7austin.com/news/ercot-says-normal-operations-r
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D. | Wed September 6, 2023
Summary
Author(s): William H. Witherell, Ph.D. | Fri September 1, 2023
Midway through the third quarter of the year, economic activity in the Eurozone appears to be entering a period of stagnation. The composite (manufacturing and services) August Flash PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) dropped to its lowest level since November 2007. This is the third consecutive…
Author(s): David R. Kotok | Sun August 27, 2023
Author(s): David R. Kotok | Sun August 20, 2023
Every morning at Cumberland we circulate a spreadsheet of several different interest rates, examine them for changes, and compare them with their historical paths. Below this narrative is an extract of part of the spreadsheet for August 16, 2023.
Author(s): Cumberland Advisors | Sat August 19, 2023