Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.
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- What Is The Neutral Real Interest Rate? What About Munis?
Author(s): David R. Kotok | Wed May 18, 2022
We are going to open this commentary with five of the slides used at the April 27 USF-GIC virtual (and in person) conference on the Russia-Ukraine war and its impacts. The five-part series, “Ukraine: What’s Next?” https://www.eventbrite.com/e/ukraine-whats-next-tickets-333787847437, is a…
- Ukraine: What's Next? - Part 1
Author(s): David R. Kotok | Sun May 15, 2022
Manatee Educational Television (METV) and the University of South Florida are in the process of airing a five-part series, “Ukraine: What’s Next?” Cumberland Advisors is a sponsor and supporter, and the Global Interdependence Center is a program partner.
- GIC Long Covid Conference Virtual & In-person
Author(s): David R. Kotok | Thu May 12, 2022
On Thursday, May 19, 2022, the Global Interdependence Center and the Solve Long Covid Initiative will offer a one-day conference, “Long Covid: Research, Policy and Economic Impact.” This signature event offers attendees the opportunity to learn about the latest…
- Two Links & a Rant: Tax-Free Munis, Quantitative Tightening, & Trolls in the Media
Author(s): David R. Kotok | Wed May 11, 2022
We’re talking bonds and the Fed today. Here are two links and a rant. The first link is the May 6 video by my colleague of 20-plus years, John Mousseau, who happens to be the Director of Fixed Income as well as President and CEO at Cumberland. Here’s the link: https://youtu.be/c9eQ2z121bg. …
- A Bond Metric for Stock Markets?
Author(s): David R. Kotok | Mon May 9, 2022
Today we are going to look at the credit spread of a Bloomberg intermediate-term BBB-rated bond cohort which is determined and priced AFTER removing the bonds of energy, metals, and mining. The series from Bloomberg is “BBB 5–10yr ex Energy, Metals, and Mining (H33730US Index).”…
- Life Expectancy Falls Two Years in a Row
Author(s): David R. Kotok | Sun May 8, 2022
In an important new study, “Changes in Life Expectancy Between 2019 and 2021: United States and 19 Peer Countries,” the authors have set forth an alarming result of the Covid pandemic, which may have deep implications for US economic growth. Here’s the link: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.…
- The May 2022 FOMC
Author(s): Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. | Thu May 5, 2022
Equity markets breathed a sigh of relief that the FOMC raised its target federal funds rate range by only 50 basis points, to 0.75%–1.0%, instead of the 75 basis points that some had feared. The Dow Jones surged 932 points after the meeting, the largest increase since 2020.…
- Then and Now: Is This Time Different?
Author(s): Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. | Tue May 3, 2022
Prior to 2022, the US experienced three periods of significant inflation since 1960. The first was from about mid-1964 to fall 1970, when CPI inflation had peaked at 6.54%. The second was the short period from 1972–1975, when inflation peaked at 12.2%. The third was shortly after, from 1977 to…
Author(s): David R. Kotok | Thu April 28, 2022
We’ve received permission from AMG Funds to share a chart they have created. We thank Ben Stevens for granting permission.
Here’s Ben’s morning missive for…
- Russia Default? Let's Ask Norbert Gaillard.
Author(s): David R. Kotok | Tue April 26, 2022
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Yahoo Finance ran this story about Russia and default: “Russia's debt default will be one of the hardest in history to resolve and could see the US seize the central bank's…