Insights
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D., CBE | Thu May 15, 2025
Slower retail sales, great news on inflation, and jobless claims remain trendless. Retail sales edged higher by 0.1 percent for April (note that it rounded up to 0.1 percent, with the actual increase at 0.05 percent), with the retail control group (core retail sales) declining by 0.2 percent. A…
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D., CBE | Tue May 13, 2025
April inflation up modestly, about as expected. The April Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2 percent for the month, lowering the 12-month trend rate to 2.3 percent – the lowest trend rate since February 2021. The core CPI (removing the volatile food and energy components) also increased by 0.2…
Author(s): Benjamin C. Pease | Mon May 5, 2025
The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives began a controlled fire on April 29th, 2025, as part of its ongoing investigation into the cause of the devastating Palisades Fire in California. The very next morning, the retail order period began for a $990-million-dollar debt issuance…
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D., CBE | Fri May 2, 2025
A solid reading on April employment. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 177,000 in April, above market expectations of about 130,000 (although downward revisions over the prior two months of 58,000 left the level of payrolls just below expectations).
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D., CBE | Wed April 30, 2025
Personal income rose by 0.7 percent in March, while personal consumption expenditures (PCE) climbed by 0.5 percent (helped by a surge in auto sales pre-tariff but hurt by a drop in energy prices) – very solid results suggesting good momentum heading into the second quarter (and tariffs). But…
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D. | Wed April 30, 2025
The advance estimate for real GDP growth fell at an annualized pace of 0.3 percent in the first quarter. All (plus more) of the decline can be attributed to a surge in imports in advance of tariffs. Importantly, core growth (final sales to private domestic purchasers, FSPDP) grew by 3.0 percent,…
Author(s): John R. Mousseau, CFA | Mon April 28, 2025
The recent muni market selloff we are calling ‘T cubed’ – taxation, tariffs, and Trump talk. It is one of a number of selloffs over the past 17 years. Our first slide is an old standby chart of ours, “Muni Feast and Famine.” You can see the various selloffs in the muni market since 2008.…
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D., CBE | Wed April 16, 2025
Retail sales were up by 1.4 percent in March, helped by motor vehicle sales but held back by sales at gasoline stations (on lower gasoline prices). There were upward revisions to February, but the retail sales control group (removing autos, building supplies, and gasoline stations) was up by only 0…
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D., CBE | Thu April 10, 2025
We know (and virtually all economists agree) that tariff increases are a supply shock that slows economic activity and increases prices. Does this mean that the U.S. will experience a near-term recession and inflation will move higher? The answer to this depends crucially on how higher tariffs rise…
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D., CBE | Thu April 10, 2025
Good news, but does it matter? Both the overall and core CPI measures rose by a modest 0.1 percent for March, bringing the 12-month trend rates down to 2.4 and 2.8 percent, respectively. The trend rates are both better than market expectations, although the three- and six-month annualized rates…