Insights
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.
Author(s): John R. Mousseau, CFA | Mon April 28, 2025
The recent muni market selloff we are calling ‘T cubed’ – taxation, tariffs, and Trump talk. It is one of a number of selloffs over the past 17 years.
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D., CBE | Thu April 10, 2025
We know (and virtually all economists agree) that tariff increases are a supply shock that slows economic activity and increases prices. Does this mean that the U.S. will experience a near-term recession and inflation will move higher? The answer to this depends crucially on how higher tariffs rise…
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D., CBE | Thu April 10, 2025
Good news, but does it matter? Both the overall and core CPI measures rose by a modest 0.1 percent for March, bringing the 12-month trend rates down to 2.4 and 2.8 percent, respectively. The trend rates are both better than market expectations, although the three- and six-month annualized rates…
Author(s): John R. Mousseau, CFA | Wed April 9, 2025
The first quarter of 2025 saw yields on US Treasuries (Tsy) rise at the start of the year with the anticipation of Donald Trump’s inauguration and the expectation for greater spending and for higher potential inflation pushing yields higher in early January. The remainder of the quarter and the…
Author(s): Patricia Healy, CFA | Wed April 9, 2025
The events of the quarter include DOGE and tariff actions, the reassessing of and halting of subsidies, and the functioning and funding of major spending programs, e.g. Medicaid and education priorities, among many other changes from Trump 2.0 that will challenge municipalities.
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D., CBE | Fri April 4, 2025
A solid employment report for March. Jobs Friday is usually the “highlight” of economic data for the week (indeed, for the month), but with everything going on with tariffs, it seems almost beside the point. Especially as it looks back at the month before the implementation of broad-based tariffs.…
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D., CBE | Thu April 3, 2025
President Trump presented his tariff plan on Wednesday afternoon at a Rose Garden ceremony. These tariffs may change – moving higher if other countries retaliate in response to the tariffs or moving lower through successful negotiations. As a result, there is still a lot of uncertainty with regard…
Author(s): Benjamin C. Pease | Thu April 3, 2025
In this article we consider the current environment and congressional discussions related to the potential removal or cap of the municipal tax exemption. We see the outright removal of the federal tax exemption from exempt municipal bonds as a low probability but not zero, and we believe that if…
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D., CBE | Fri March 28, 2025
Income up strongly with spending positive – but core inflation a bit hotter than expected. February income grew at a strong 0.8 percent pace while personal consumption expenditures (PCE) was up by a solid 0.4 percent. January PCE was revised upward to a smaller decline and on balance the last two…
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D., CBE | Fri March 14, 2025
Cooler than expected inflation for February. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February rose by 0.2 percent (expectations of 0.3 percent and 0.5 percent last month), while the core CPI (excluding the volatile food and energy components) also climbed by 0.2 percent for the month (0.3 percent…