Insights
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.
Author(s): Patricia Healy, CFA | Wed July 9, 2025
Many things remain up in the air and new challenges have arisen! Last quarter we noted so many changes, but all at the same time is unusual. See “Q1 2025 Credit Commentary Trump 2.0 Effect on Munis and Other Challenges.” Tariff negotiations have yet to be finalized, and the August 1st deadline…
Author(s): Benjamin C. Pease | Wed July 9, 2025
Many investors focus on past returns when making investment decisions. Our personal experiences – particularly recent losses or missed opportunities – can weigh heavily on how we approach risk and outlook. This is known as recency bias.
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D., CBE | Thu July 3, 2025
Solid headline numbers, but some weakness below. Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) increased by 147,000 in June, modestly higher than market expectations of around 120,000. Additionally, there were some small upward revisions to the prior two months.
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D., CBE | Tue June 17, 2025
A down month for retail sales. Retail sales dropped by a sharp -0.9 percent for May, even worse than the market expectation of -0.6 percent. But “core” retail sales (removing autos, gasoline, and building materials) rose by a solid 0.4 percent. Certainly, a bad look on the surface, but maybe not so…
Author(s): Patricia Healy, CFA | Mon June 9, 2025
Challenges abound for the higher education sector. One of the biggest challenges has been the demographic decline in student population while operations and fixed costs associated with campus and student housing improvements still need to be paid for.
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D., CBE | Fri May 30, 2025
A favorable view on income and inflation. The April report on personal income and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) showed strong income gains (up by 0.8 percent, well above expectations), but some slowing in consumer spending (up by 0.2 percent, as expected).
Author(s): Patricia Healy, CFA | Wed May 28, 2025
The Moody’s downgrade of the US rating to Aa1 from Aaa had a ripple effect through the bond markets, in the form of downgraded credits that depend on government support, assume a certain level of government support, or are supported by other federal government securities that also lost the Aaa…
Author(s): John R. Mousseau, CFA | Thu May 22, 2025
Moody’s Investors’ Services downgraded United States debt from Aaa to Aa1 last week, on May 16th (Moody’s has rated US debt Aaa since 1919). While these days you can’t say anything is a certainty, we certainly would not characterize the downgrade as a surprise. This follows the downgrade by…
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D., CBE | Thu May 15, 2025
Slower retail sales, great news on inflation, and jobless claims remain trendless. Retail sales edged higher by 0.1 percent for April (note that it rounded up to 0.1 percent, with the actual increase at 0.05 percent), with the retail control group (core retail sales) declining by 0.2 percent. A…
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D., CBE | Tue May 13, 2025
April inflation up modestly, about as expected. The April Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2 percent for the month, lowering the 12-month trend rate to 2.3 percent – the lowest trend rate since February 2021. The core CPI (removing the volatile food and energy components) also increased by 0.2…