Market Commentary

Insights

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

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  • November Personal Income and Spending
     Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D. | Fri December 20, 2024

    Nov. Personal Income and Spending


    Lighter than expected income, spending, and inflation. While personal income and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) grew a bit more slowly than expected in November, but were still solid, the most important data in today’s release were PCE (and core PCE) inflation data that were a bit…


  • A New Phase in Fed Policy
     Author(s): Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. | Fri December 20, 2024

    A New Phase in Fed Policy


    As expected, the Fed cut its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points for the third time this year, from 4.5%–4.75% to 4.25%–4.5%. All Committee members but one, President Hammack of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, in her first FOMC meeting, voted to cut the rate. The…


  • The December FOMC Meeting
     Author(s): Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. | Wed December 11, 2024

    December FOMC Meeting


    Going into its last meeting of the year, on December 17th and 18th, the FOMC now has a new jobs report, shown below; and the number of jobs created in November is 227,000, which exceeded expectations. On the downside, the data for September and October were revised up slightly as well. The…


  • November CPI
     Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D. | Wed December 11, 2024

    November CPI


    CPI inflation up as expected, with declines having leveled off.

    The overall November Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3 percent for the month, as did the core CPI (removing the volatile food and energy components). The 12-month trend rate for the overall CPI ticked higher to 2.7…


  • November Employment Report
     Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D. | Fri December 6, 2024

    November Employment Report


    The weather/strike rebound in jobs as expected.


  • France, Turmoil, Credit Spreads
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Mon December 2, 2024

    France, Turmoil, Credit Spreads


    France, Turmoil, Credit Spreads

     

    The political disruption in France has implications for the euro and for world financial markets. France is the second largest economy in Europe; Germany is first. 

     


  • October PCE inflation as expected – too hot for the Fed to ease or still OK?
     Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D. | Wed November 27, 2024

    October PCE Inflation


    The monthly increases for inflation in October as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index came in exactly as the market expected – up by 0.2 percent for the overall index and by 0.3 percent for the core (removing the volatile food and energy components) index. These…


  • Tiptoe Through the Tulips
     Author(s): Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. | Sat November 9, 2024

    As was viewed by many as likely, the FOMC cut its target rate by another 25 basis points in the wake of the election results and the very large positive market response to the election.


     


  • Yields — The Bump from Trump
     Author(s): John Mousseau | Fri November 8, 2024

    According to pre-election polls, many believed the results would be too close to call.  Instead, it resulted in a clear mandate.


    According to pre-election polls, many believed the results would be too close to call.  Instead, it resulted in a clear mandate.


  • This Week's FOMC Meeting
     Author(s): Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. | Mon November 4, 2024

    Upcoming FOMC Meeting


     

    The FOMC this week will go into its meeting with a wealth of new economic data that should be significant for its decision. More specifically, the committee will have the new readings on Q3 real GDP, the September’s jobs situation, and the September PCE and CPI inflation indices. In…


 

 

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Plutarch