Insights
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D., CBE | Fri March 28, 2025
Income up strongly with spending positive – but core inflation a bit hotter than expected. February income grew at a strong 0.8 percent pace while personal consumption expenditures (PCE) was up by a solid 0.4 percent. January PCE was revised upward to a smaller decline and on balance the last two…
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D., CBE | Fri March 14, 2025
Cooler than expected inflation for February. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February rose by 0.2 percent (expectations of 0.3 percent and 0.5 percent last month), while the core CPI (excluding the volatile food and energy components) also climbed by 0.2 percent for the month (0.3 percent…
Author(s): John R. Mousseau, CFA | Thu March 13, 2025
Both the equity and fixed-income markets have been dealing with higher levels of volatility in the past few weeks (winner-equities). But the uncertainty, of course, comes out of left field (as it usually does).
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D., CBE | Fri March 7, 2025
February job market about as expected – modest gains. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 151,000 in February, a tad below market expectations of around 160,000 for the month. Revisions to the prior two months were minimal. The U-3 unemployment rate edged higher to 4.1 percent – the middle of its recent…
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D., CBE | Fri February 28, 2025
Lots of income but not much spending in January – with inflation as expected. Personal income jumped by 0.9 percent in January (about double expectations) while personal consumption expenditures (PCE) fell by 0.2 percent (markets were looking for a small increase). The weak retail sales report…
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D., CBE | Fri February 14, 2025
January retail sales drop sharply.
The advance report for retail sales plummeted by 0.9 percent for January, offset only modestly by upward revisions to prior months. Data on unit sales for light vehicles had already shown a big decline, leading to expectations for…
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D. | Wed February 12, 2025
Hotter than expected CPI to start the year.
The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January rose by a stronger than expected 0.5 percent (0.3 percent expected), while the core CPI (removing the volatile food and energy components) increased by 0.4 percent (0.3 percent…
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D. | Fri February 7, 2025
January employment report -- strong overall despite slower nonfarm payroll gains for the month.
Author(s): Mark J. Myers | Wed February 5, 2025
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Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D. | Fri January 31, 2025
Consumers keep spending, while inflation edges higher.
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) grew by a strong 0.7 percent in December, easily outstripping income growth of 0.4 percent and indicating that there were no signs of a slowdown in the biggest part of the US economy as the…