Insights
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.
Author(s): Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. | Wed September 4, 2024
As is customary, the FOMC chair Powell led off the prestigious conference held by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. In his August 23 keynote speech, he suggested, in a decisive break from his usual practice, that a rate cut was likely at the FOMC’s September…
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D. | Fri August 30, 2024
PCE inflation as expected, and financial markets like it.
Author(s): Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. | Wed August 28, 2024
The issue of Federal Reserve Independence, when it comes to monetary policy, once again arose recently, when former President Trump and his running mate argued that the president should have a say in the formulation of monetary policy. They argued that they had unique insights that are more…
Author(s): Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. | Thu August 15, 2024
The week and a half following the FOMC’s July meeting has been filled with extreme market volatility, demonstrating behavior that experts say market participants should not do and that is to react to a single data point upon its release. We have had many such data and information releases, and it…
Author(s): David R. Kotok | Wed August 14, 2024
Now that financial market agents and media pundits have collaborated in planning for one, two or three Fed rate cuts this year, the attention, and the debate, has moved to the size of the Fed’s balance sheet. By my observation, you can line up ten economists and get eleven opinions. The truth is…
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D. | Wed August 14, 2024
July inflation about as expected – good enough for the Fed to ease in September. The July CPI rose by 0.2 percent, meeting market expectations. The core CPI (removing the volatile food and energy components) also increased by 0.2 percent (equal to market expectations). As has been the case…
Author(s): David R. Kotok | Sun August 11, 2024
Profits and GDP help explain the stock market rally of the post-Covid period.
Author(s): John R. Mousseau, CFA | Wed August 7, 2024
“If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”– Herb Stein, former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under Presidents Nixon and Ford
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D. | Fri August 2, 2024
So, is the economy finally downshifting to the slower pace of trend growth – or are we transitioning from above-trend growth to recession? The 4.3 percent level of the unemployment rate triggers the Sahm Rule.
Author(s): David R. Kotok | Sun July 28, 2024
This quote was a lead item in Michael Gayed’s Lead-Lag report on July 24th: