More and more information is becoming available that will be relevant to the FOMC’s policy formulation process at its September 17–18 meeting. As we know, GDP growth in Q2 was still firm at 3%, but more recent data suggest that a slowing is in progress. Perhaps most informative is the most…

The August consumer price index rose by 0.2 percent in August, with the 12-month trend rate up by 2.5 percent -- just as market participants expected. Slower increases in food prices (up by 0.1 percent) and declines in energy prices (down by 0.8 percent) helped to moderate the CPI.

The employment report showed that the job market was mixed over the past few months, but up a bit for August.

As is customary, the FOMC chair Powell led off the prestigious conference held by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. In his August 23 keynote speech, he suggested, in a decisive break from his usual practice, that a rate cut was likely at the FOMC’s September…

There have been many, many, many reports and podcasts and descriptions and interpretations from the Fed’s Jackson Hole meeting. I want to mention just one interview. 

PCE inflation as expected, and financial markets like it.

The issue of Federal Reserve Independence, when it comes to monetary policy, once again arose recently, when former President Trump and his running mate argued that the president should have a say in the formulation of monetary policy. They argued that they had unique insights that are more…

Now that financial market agents and media pundits have collaborated in planning for one, two or three Fed rate cuts this year, the attention, and the debate, has moved to the size of the Fed’s balance sheet. By my observation, you can line up ten economists and get eleven opinions. The truth is…

July inflation about as expected – good enough for the Fed to ease in September. The July CPI rose by 0.2 percent, meeting market expectations. The core CPI (removing the volatile food and energy components) also increased by 0.2 percent (equal to market expectations). As has been the case…