Insights
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D. & Benjamin Pease | Wed August 6, 2025
In our view, the current economic backdrop is one of below-trend growth but not yet showing signs of an outright contraction that would force the Fed to act. Following Friday’s job data, fed funds futures shot up to over a 90% probability of a rate cut in September.
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D., CBE | Fri August 1, 2025
A smaller than expected increase in nonfarm payrolls for July (only 73,000) and massive downward reductions in payrolls – lower by 238,000 for May and June. This is a huge revision to payrolls and when coupled with the modestly below market expectations for July, it suggests that the job market is…
Author(s): | Mon July 14, 2025
This is a brief overview of Cumberland Advisors’ thoughts on financial markets as we head into the second half of 2025. It is a particularly important outlook given the fact that we have just witnessed an almost unprecedented amount of Presidential activity for the first 6 months of a new…
Author(s): | Mon July 14, 2025
This is a brief overview of Cumberland Advisors’ thoughts on financial markets as we head into the second half of 2025. It is a particularly important outlook given the fact that we have just witnessed an almost unprecedented amount of Presidential activity for the first 6 months of a new…
Author(s): John R. Mousseau, CFA | Thu July 10, 2025
The end of the second quarter of 2025 saw slight rises in the 10-year Treasury yield but slight lowering of yields in the 10-year AAA muni yield. When you look at the highs and lows for the various maturities of both Tax-exempt munis and US Treasuries you realize the volatility that...
Author(s): Benjamin C. Pease | Wed July 9, 2025
Many investors focus on past returns when making investment decisions. Our personal experiences – particularly recent losses or missed opportunities – can weigh heavily on how we approach risk and outlook. This is known as recency bias.
Author(s): Patricia Healy, CFA | Wed July 9, 2025
Many things remain up in the air and new challenges have arisen! Last quarter we noted so many changes, but all at the same time is unusual. See “Q1 2025 Credit Commentary Trump 2.0 Effect on Munis and Other Challenges.” Tariff negotiations have yet to be finalized, and the August 1st deadline…
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D., CBE | Thu July 3, 2025
Solid headline numbers, but some weakness below. Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) increased by 147,000 in June, modestly higher than market expectations of around 120,000. Additionally, there were some small upward revisions to the prior two months.
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D., CBE | Tue June 17, 2025
A down month for retail sales. Retail sales dropped by a sharp -0.9 percent for May, even worse than the market expectation of -0.6 percent. But “core” retail sales (removing autos, gasoline, and building materials) rose by a solid 0.4 percent. Certainly, a bad look on the surface, but maybe not so…
Author(s): Patricia Healy, CFA | Mon June 9, 2025
Challenges abound for the higher education sector. One of the biggest challenges has been the demographic decline in student population while operations and fixed costs associated with campus and student housing improvements still need to be paid for.