Insights
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D., CBE | Fri September 5, 2025
Slow job gains make a Fed rate cut very likely. Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) rose by only 22,000 for August, down from an upwardly revised 79,000 for July. June was revised to a drop of 13,000. Markets were looking for a gain of 79,000 for August.
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D., CBE | Fri August 15, 2025
Retail sales were up by 0.5 percent for July, with June revised higher to 0.9 percent. Core retail sales (the retail control group) also increased by 0.5 percent (0.8 percent for June).
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D., CBE | Tue August 12, 2025
The monthly gains for the overall and core CPI price indices increased about as expected, up by 0.2 percent for the overall measure and 0.3 percent for the core (excluding the volatile food and energy components).
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D. & Benjamin Pease | Wed August 6, 2025
In our view, the current economic backdrop is one of below-trend growth but not yet showing signs of an outright contraction that would force the Fed to act. Following Friday’s job data, fed funds futures shot up to over a 90% probability of a rate cut in September.
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D., CBE | Fri August 1, 2025
A smaller than expected increase in nonfarm payrolls for July (only 73,000) and massive downward reductions in payrolls – lower by 238,000 for May and June. This is a huge revision to payrolls and when coupled with the modestly below market expectations for July, it suggests that the job market is…
Author(s): | Mon July 14, 2025
This is a brief overview of Cumberland Advisors’ thoughts on financial markets as we head into the second half of 2025. It is a particularly important outlook given the fact that we have just witnessed an almost unprecedented amount of Presidential activity for the first 6 months of a new…
Author(s): | Mon July 14, 2025
This is a brief overview of Cumberland Advisors’ thoughts on financial markets as we head into the second half of 2025. It is a particularly important outlook given the fact that we have just witnessed an almost unprecedented amount of Presidential activity for the first 6 months of a new…
Author(s): John R. Mousseau, CFA | Thu July 10, 2025
The end of the second quarter of 2025 saw slight rises in the 10-year Treasury yield but slight lowering of yields in the 10-year AAA muni yield. When you look at the highs and lows for the various maturities of both Tax-exempt munis and US Treasuries you realize the volatility that...
Author(s): Benjamin C. Pease | Wed July 9, 2025
Many investors focus on past returns when making investment decisions. Our personal experiences – particularly recent losses or missed opportunities – can weigh heavily on how we approach risk and outlook. This is known as recency bias.
Author(s): Patricia Healy, CFA | Wed July 9, 2025
Many things remain up in the air and new challenges have arisen! Last quarter we noted so many changes, but all at the same time is unusual. See “Q1 2025 Credit Commentary Trump 2.0 Effect on Munis and Other Challenges.” Tariff negotiations have yet to be finalized, and the August 1st deadline…