Market Commentary

Insights

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

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  • Q4 2024 Quarterly Review
     Author(s): Matthew C. McAleer | Fri January 10, 2025

    Q4 2024 Review


    A recap on market conditions and trading decisions that impacted our primary equity and fixed income investment strategies throughout the past year.
  • President Carter, RIP
     Author(s): John R. Mousseau, CFA | Wed January 8, 2025

    President Carter, RIP


    Thursday, January 9th, is a day of mourning for President Jimmy Carter, our 39th President, who passed away at 100 years old on December 29th, 2024.

    I was lucky enough in college to attend the inauguration of President Carter in January 1977. It was a bitterly chilly day but sunny, and one…


  • Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS): An Input In Fixed Income Rotation Decisions
     Author(s): Daniel Himelberger | Fri January 3, 2025

    Option-Adjusted Spread


    Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) is a crucial metric used in active management of fixed income portfolios to provide insights into the yield difference between a bond and a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for any embedded options. These spreads are particularly important for understanding the true…


  • The Trump Yield Rally
     Author(s): John R. Mousseau, CFA | Fri December 27, 2024

    The Trump Yield Rally


    Fourth Quarter 2024 – The Trump Yield Rally

     


  • Happy Holidays from Cumberland Advisors
     Author(s): John R. Mousseau, CFA | Mon December 23, 2024

    Happy Holidays!


    Cumberland Advisors would like to wish everyone a very special and safe Holiday Season and a Happy New Year.
  • November Personal Income and Spending
     Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D. | Fri December 20, 2024

    Nov. Personal Income and Spending


    Lighter than expected income, spending, and inflation. While personal income and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) grew a bit more slowly than expected in November, but were still solid, the most important data in today’s release were PCE (and core PCE) inflation data that were a bit…


  • A New Phase in Fed Policy
     Author(s): Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. | Fri December 20, 2024

    A New Phase in Fed Policy


    As expected, the Fed cut its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points for the third time this year, from 4.5%–4.75% to 4.25%–4.5%. All Committee members but one, President Hammack of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, in her first FOMC meeting, voted to cut the rate. The…


  • The December FOMC Meeting
     Author(s): Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. | Wed December 11, 2024

    December FOMC Meeting


    Going into its last meeting of the year, on December 17th and 18th, the FOMC now has a new jobs report, shown below; and the number of jobs created in November is 227,000, which exceeded expectations. On the downside, the data for September and October were revised up slightly as well. The…


  • November CPI
     Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D. | Wed December 11, 2024

    November CPI


    CPI inflation up as expected, with declines having leveled off.

    The overall November Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3 percent for the month, as did the core CPI (removing the volatile food and energy components). The 12-month trend rate for the overall CPI ticked higher to 2.7…


  • November Employment Report
     Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D. | Fri December 6, 2024

    November Employment Report


    The weather/strike rebound in jobs as expected.


 

 

"The mind is not a vessel to be filled but a fire to be kindled."

Plutarch