The FOMC has now significantly revised its policy path going forward, dropping its target rate by a somewhat surprising 50 basis points, and is now on track to reduce rates by 25 basis points two more times in 2024 and as many as four more times in 2025. This is the first rate cut in four years…

The Federal Open Market Committee announced that it was cutting the target federal funds rate to a range of 4.75-5.00 percent – a 50 basis point cut in rates. The Summary of Economic Projections (SEPs, otherwise known as the dot plots) shows that a majority of FOMC members projects a year-end…

Today I will recap the 3rd quarter and discuss the 4th, including Cumberland’s positions in the defense sector and healthcare, the trajectory for interest rates, political uncertainties, and tariffs.

The Federal Reserve cut the short-term federal funds rate on Wednesday from 5.25–5.50% to 4.75–5.00%. This is the first rate cut since the Fed began to raise rates in March of 2022 coming out of Covid. It has long been expected that the Fed would cut at today’s meeting. The Fed has hinted at…

More and more information is becoming available that will be relevant to the FOMC’s policy formulation process at its September 17–18 meeting. As we know, GDP growth in Q2 was still firm at 3%, but more recent data suggest that a slowing is in progress. Perhaps most informative is the most…

The August consumer price index rose by 0.2 percent in August, with the 12-month trend rate up by 2.5 percent -- just as market participants expected. Slower increases in food prices (up by 0.1 percent) and declines in energy prices (down by 0.8 percent) helped to moderate the CPI.

The employment report showed that the job market was mixed over the past few months, but up a bit for August.

As is customary, the FOMC chair Powell led off the prestigious conference held by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. In his August 23 keynote speech, he suggested, in a decisive break from his usual practice, that a rate cut was likely at the FOMC’s September…

There have been many, many, many reports and podcasts and descriptions and interpretations from the Fed’s Jackson Hole meeting. I want to mention just one interview. 

PCE inflation as expected, and financial markets like it.