Insights
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.
Author(s): John R. Mousseau, CFA | Wed April 9, 2025
The first quarter of 2025 saw yields on US Treasuries (Tsy) rise at the start of the year with the anticipation of Donald Trump’s inauguration and the expectation for greater spending and for higher potential inflation pushing yields higher in early January. The remainder of the quarter and the…
Author(s): Patricia Healy, CFA | Wed April 9, 2025
The events of the quarter include DOGE and tariff actions, the reassessing of and halting of subsidies, and the functioning and funding of major spending programs, e.g. Medicaid and education priorities, among many other changes from Trump 2.0 that will challenge municipalities.
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D., CBE | Fri April 4, 2025
A solid employment report for March. Jobs Friday is usually the “highlight” of economic data for the week (indeed, for the month), but with everything going on with tariffs, it seems almost beside the point. Especially as it looks back at the month before the implementation of broad-based tariffs.…
Author(s): Benjamin C. Pease | Thu April 3, 2025
In this article we consider the current environment and congressional discussions related to the potential removal or cap of the municipal tax exemption. We see the outright removal of the federal tax exemption from exempt municipal bonds as a low probability but not zero, and we believe that if…
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D., CBE | Thu April 3, 2025
President Trump presented his tariff plan on Wednesday afternoon at a Rose Garden ceremony. These tariffs may change – moving higher if other countries retaliate in response to the tariffs or moving lower through successful negotiations. As a result, there is still a lot of uncertainty with regard…
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D., CBE | Fri March 28, 2025
Income up strongly with spending positive – but core inflation a bit hotter than expected. February income grew at a strong 0.8 percent pace while personal consumption expenditures (PCE) was up by a solid 0.4 percent. January PCE was revised upward to a smaller decline and on balance the last two…
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D., CBE | Fri March 14, 2025
Cooler than expected inflation for February. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February rose by 0.2 percent (expectations of 0.3 percent and 0.5 percent last month), while the core CPI (excluding the volatile food and energy components) also climbed by 0.2 percent for the month (0.3 percent…
Author(s): John R. Mousseau, CFA | Thu March 13, 2025
Both the equity and fixed-income markets have been dealing with higher levels of volatility in the past few weeks (winner-equities). But the uncertainty, of course, comes out of left field (as it usually does).
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D., CBE | Fri March 7, 2025
February job market about as expected – modest gains. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 151,000 in February, a tad below market expectations of around 160,000 for the month. Revisions to the prior two months were minimal. The U-3 unemployment rate edged higher to 4.1 percent – the middle of its recent…
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D., CBE | Fri February 28, 2025
Lots of income but not much spending in January – with inflation as expected. Personal income jumped by 0.9 percent in January (about double expectations) while personal consumption expenditures (PCE) fell by 0.2 percent (markets were looking for a small increase). The weak retail sales report…