An overview of Cumberland Advisors’ thoughts on financial markets as we head into the second half of 2024.

 

A midyear sector outlook for US economy points to a 'soft landing' | Cumberland Comment

 

This is an overview of Cumberland Advisors’ thoughts on financial markets as we head into the second half of 2024. We know that there could be some volatility in markets based on this anything-but-normal presidential election year; however, in the end we believe economics will continue to drive markets, and that is reflected in our outlook here as well. We are publishing this the day after President Biden has dropped out of the nomination. We believe that going from here into the Fall there is probably a better chance of election polls narrowing than there was a week ago. – John R. Mousseau, CEO.

David Kotok, Chief Investment Officer

In the January 2024 semi-annual Cumberland outlook, I opened my section with this statement:

In my opinion, the border and the U.S. labor force are paramount political issues in 2024. The Biden administration has been viewed by many as weak and indecisive, and recurring border failures appear visually on the nightly news without respite. That is one side of the border issues divide. On the other side we witness the Trump harangues against asylum seekers and immigrants with intensely negative rhetoric. Trump has invoked the historical “blood libel” images used in pre-WWII rhetoric. It is fueled by Trump’s self-appointed acolyte, Stephen Miller, on the other side. This debate flows to the labor markets.

 

That assessment is certainly out of date now, even though the labor market impacts are still there. The paramount need for immigrants is still there. There are still more job openings than there are job seekers. Please don’t misunderstand me. It is the public discourse, the media narrative, the political divide that has changed. The subject of the border, immigration policy, the federal failures under both the Trump administration and then under the Biden administration are a fair list of serious issues. But the media personalities have dropped them in perceived importance. Financial markets are becoming focused on politics and specifically on the outcome of the contest between the remaining “old man” and the outcome of decisions by the Democrats about Kamala Harris as a replacement for Biden. Note that Trump is now the oldest candidate ever to be nominated for the presidency since Biden dropped out before his actual nomination. 

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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

John R. Mousseau, CFA