Excerpt from Barron's

Too Many Uncertainties
06/21/2019 By Paul Farrell

Barron's writer, Paul Farrell, assembles a collection of outtakes for his piece titled, "Too Many Uncertainties."

Destabilizing

Second-Quarter 2019 Review
by William Witherell, Ph.D. of Cumberland Advisors

June 20: The factors that have led to high volatility in the global equity markets during the quarter are still present. Foremost are the destabilizing effects of rising trade and technology tensions, which are hurting manufacturing sectors in many countries, disrupting global value chains, and weighing heavily on investment decisions. Global trade has slowed dramatically, from a 5.5% annual pace in 2017 to a projected rate of 2.1% this year. The second cause of market volatility, related to the first, has been the slowdown in global economic growth and increasing concerns about the possibility of recession in major economies including the US. Along with the trade concerns, the easing of growth rates in China, India, and many other emerging markets; the contracting of the manufacturing sector and consequent weakness in Europe; and the stagnating Japanese economy have added to growth worries.

--Bill Witherell

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Read the full collection of excerpts at the Barron's Website

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