Hurricane Ian Notice

Due to the impending Hurricane Ian and its impact on the Sarasota area; Cumberland Advisors has mobilized and relocated our disaster recovery team to our Vineland, NJ office. If the storm does affect the Sarasota area, Cumberland Advisors’ staff members are on standby, and ready to provide you with any assistance you may need.  Our phone lines and emails will be monitored, and we will respond to matters on a priority basis.
 
For any urgent concerns you may also contact the following individuals by email directly:

For our clients residing in the Sarasota area, Cumberland Advisors knows nothing is more important than the safety of you and your family. We urge you to take the necessary steps to protect your loved ones. Check your supplies and make sure you have plenty of fresh water, flashlights, and a battery-operated radio. Cumberland values our customers’ security and peace of mind, and our goal is to provide outstanding service.
 
Thank you for entrusting us to continue to provide you service and may all stay safe.

 

Excerpt from...

Wall Street Is Bearish on Treasuries. Maybe Too Bearish.

 

By Alexandra Scaggs Updated January 3, 2022 / Original January 2, 2022

 

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John R. Mousseau - In the News

 

Wall Street is bearish on Treasuries in 2022. The Federal Reserve recently pivoted to a more hawkish policy stance, and analysts predict the central bank could raise rates as soon as March. That bodes poorly for prices, which move inversely to yields, but global demand for higher-yielding Treasuries may limit or even prevent losses.

 

If Treasury-market investors lose money in the coming year it would be a record-setting event. That’s because Treasuries haven’t posted two consecutive calendar years of losses in at least 43 years, according to ICE Indices data going back to 1978.

 

Tighter Fed policy means higher yields on Treasuries, as a general rule. And Wall Street forecasts that the 10-year Treasury yield will rise to 2% by the end of 2022, according to Bloomberg data. The 10-year was trading Thursday with a yield of 1.526%.

 

If two consecutive years of losses occur, that could signal that Treasury yields have hit the multidecade lows that investors have been expecting ever since the financial crisis of 2008-09. Cumberland Advisors fixed-income chief John Mousseau said in a recent note that “there is a larger question about the long-term” decline in U.S. interest rates that has been ongoing since 1981. “For the first time in my career at Cumberland, we now feel that a… low was made in August 2020,” he wrote.

 

The yield on the 10-year note hit a low of 0.52% that month.

 

Read the full article (with subscription) at Barron’s: https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-bearish-treasuries-51640905529


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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

 

John R. Mousseau
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