Cumberland Advisors Week in Review + Digest, Apr 15 - Apr 19, 2024

Excerpt below:

Interest rates and inflation are still up, but the Fed has paused and indicated that easing will be the next step. However, given better-than-expected economic data, the estimates of rate cuts are fewer and farther in the future. The stock market performed well in Q1, with expectations of lower future rates and perceptions of increased productivity due to AI. The strong market performance has improved the wealth of households, pensions, endowments, insurance companies and others. While Treasury rates rose more recently with the stronger-than-expected economic data, positive demand helped munis have an excellent first quarter. Recently, muni yields have followed Treasury yields up, with liquidation of assets to cover tax payments coming due and higher expected supply. Muni demand is expected to increase, as it usually does during the summer, with reinvestment of June 1 and July 1 coupon and maturity payments. Adding to demand may be the expectation of higher tax rates in the future, with the TCJA expiring at the end 2025, though some may benefit through higher SALT deductions.

The collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge, blocking the Port of Baltimore, is expected to have wide-ranging effects, on the auto and coal industries in particular, but also on broader economic activity and supply chain disruptions. It also shines a spotlight on infrastructure weaknesses in the US and the supply and pricing of insurance for such events.

Continued at link below:

https://www.cumber.com/market-commentary/q1-2024-credit-commentary-will-be-year-credit-trends-reverse

Camp Kotok Corner

  Perspectives, News, and/or Resources from Attendees

 

 

MiB: Women in Finance

by Barry Ritholtz 
April 17, 2024

Long -time camper Barry Ritholtz recently wrote on X (Twitter): 

About 5 years ago, I was not booking many women guests on MiB. I rethought our approach, and made a concerted effort to book more senior female finance execs

This list is the result of those efforts. A ways to go, but much improved....
  

Details and links to dozens of interviews at Barry's Masters in Business (MiB) site: https://ritholtz.com/2023/03/mib-women-in-finance/
 

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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.