Material and commentaries published in the past may or may not be helpful in analyzing current economic or financial market activity. Please note publishing date when reviewing materials.  Please email [email protected] for our current thoughts or to reach an advisor.

 

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review + Digest Jan 15 - Jan 19, 2024

Cumberland Advisors
Sat Jan 20, 2024
The latest Cumberland Advisors’ Week in Review Video is now available online. Our end-of-week update on markets generally features equities, bonds, and trading highlights. Thank you for joining us.
 
Week in Review
 
Matt McAleer & Equities
- Large-caps hot this week, while small/mid-caps trailed behind
- Leaning developed in International Equity ETF
- Prior to Covid, Hang Seng Index hasn't traded below 1500 since 2009
- China markets have gone practically nowhere in last 15yrs

John Mousseau & Bonds
- Bonds traded off, with 10yr U.S. Treasury bond yields around 4.15%
- Initial jobless claims & housing starts down less than expected
- Plenty of Muni demand and bond funds saw more inflows
- Historical data shows the Fed not known for playing politics

Watch the latest update on YouTube: Cumberland Advisors’ Week in Review

Access past video updates including the most recent via this YouTube Playlist URL: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLu1JZIQ1mPrtx_q7i_C9FWN-cb9f594C1

 
Matt McAleer Email

Please send any feedback from today’s email/video to Matt McAleer. You can reach him at:
Email: [email protected]
Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewcmcaleer
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
Call Matt: (800) 257-7013 ext. 346

Other questions or comments? Email us at [email protected] or give us a call at (800) 257-7013

Have a great weekend,
Cumberland Advisors

 
 

 

 

Cumberland Advisors’ Private Wealth Practice offers institutional-level money management for individual investors. We have a multi-decade history of service to institutional clients – independent non-profits, foundations, qualified retirement plans, and government entities. As a private investor, you can leverage that same expertise in the management of your portfolio. More information is available at our website and in our private wealth digital brochure.

 

 
Catch up on recent Market Commentaries
from Cumberland Advisors

Market Commentary
 
 
Cumberland Advisors' Q4 2023 Quarterly Review


The Cumberland Advisors' Q4 2023 Quarterly Review is a recap on market conditions and trading decisions that impacted Cumberland Advisors’ primary equity and fixed income investment strategies throughout the year.

Matt McAleer & Equities:
- Diversification was a benefit in Q4 for U.S. Core ETF
- Solid quarter led by Latin America & Europe in International Equity ETF
- Rally in Mid-Cap 400 (MDY) & Bonds contributed to performance for Active Passive
- Micro/Small cap (IWC)(IJR) bounced sharply higher in U.S. Equity ETF
- Strong cash flow names (MSFT/ADBE/JPM) traded well for Tactical Trend

John Mousseau & Fixed Income:
- Treasury yields declined precipitously during Q4
- Fed’s dovish pivot in December increased expectations of earlier rate cuts in 2024
- Increased exposure to Corporates taking advantage of wider spreads vs. Taxable Munis
- Bonds that were trading at discounted levels in Q3 began trading at premiums
- Utilized loss harvesting opportunities to sell some long bonds and rebalance portfolios


View recap video here: https://youtu.be/e3pWvo2f-yk

 

 
 
Camp Kotok Corner
 
Perspectives, News, and/or Resources from Attendees

Camp Kotok
 
 

Bank Reserves & Treasury Auctions

by R. Christopher Whalen
January 08, 2024

Longtime Camper Chris Whalen offers his opinion on how "growing fiscal deficits reflect a national flight from reality" in his recent post at "The Institutional Risk Analyst." We hope you find it as interesting as we do. -Ed
Sometime during the summer of 2016, the worst of the post 2008 asset price deflation arguably bottomed out. During that summer, Cumberland Advisors chief-investment officer David Kotok approached us during lunch on the shores of the Big Lake in Downeast Maine.
 
Camp Kotok - David Kotok and Christopher Whalen discuss Capital Markets, Debt, and Deflation in 2019
Chris Whalen & David Kotok at Leen's Lodge discussing economics.

“Write the book,” said Kotok. He had a glass of white wine in one hand and a large chain pickerel on a stringer in the other. “Write the book.” Kotok then turned and went off to consult with Ray Sockabasin about the steaming of the pickerel.

After returning from Maine, we next heard from the folks at John Wiley & Sons. “We hear you are writing a book,” they exclaimed. We said yes. Soon a contract appeared. We then realized that a book need be written. And it was.

In the intervening 15 years, we have discovered an awful lot more about the financial history of the US that makes us think about reissuing "Inflated," especially now that the US public debt has reached $35 trillion. In 2010, the US public debt was under $15 trillion, but today post-COVID we are at just shy of $35 trillion and counting.

Notice in the chart below (follow link to see chart) showing the national debt that the relative increase in debt accumulation during COVID was minor, but the baseline of increase in indebtedness has been steady.

Continue reading at The Institutional Risk Analyst linked below:
URL: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/bank-reserves-treasury-auctions

 
 
What are the repercussions of a downgrade in credit? Higher interest rates? Less growth? Gov't dysfunction? Our Camp Kotok Talk features speakers addressing reverberating economic elements you may not know.
Camp Kotok Fitch Downgrade Talk & YouTube Playlist
 
 
Climate Adaptation Center - How About That Weird Weather?

Read the latest from the Climate Adaptation Center here: Let's Make 2024 Amazing
 (Cumberland Advisors is an Annual Sponsor of the Climate Adaptation Center)
 
 


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