Material and commentaries published in the past may or may not be helpful in analyzing current economic or financial market activity. Please note publishing date when reviewing materials.  Please email [email protected] for our current thoughts or to reach an advisor.

 

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review + Digest Jul 01 - Jul 05, 2024

Norm Dempsey, MBA
Sat Jul 6, 2024

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review + Digest is a compendium of news, commentary, and opinion from or of interest to our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We may include older and/or guest commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

Cumberland Advisors’ Friday, July 05, 2024 Week in Review

 Cumberland Advisors’ Week in Review  
 

Watch using either the link above or the following:  
Cumberland Advisors’ Week in Review on YouTube
 
This week's review is with Matt C. McAleer, President & Director of Private Wealth, and Shaun Burgess, Portfolio Manager & Fixed Income Analyst.
 
Matt McAleer & Equities 
 - Dispersion grows between Large-cap growth vs. other sizes & styles 
 - Added to SPEM (Emerging Markets) in our International Equity ETF strategy 
 - Watching for reasonable entries into Industrials & Basic Materials 

Shaun Burgess & Bonds 
 - Treasury volatility continued with economic data moving yields lower 
 - Fed still waiting for clearer direction on inflation before starting to cut 
 - Muni bonds very quiet, with supply much lower due to holiday
 
Access past video updates including the most recent via this YouTube Playlist URL: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLu1JZIQ1mPrtx_q7i_C9FWN-cb9f594C1
 
Please send any feedback from today’s email/video to Matt McAleer. You can reach him at:
Email: [email protected]
Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewcmcaleer
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
Call Matt: (800) 257-7013 ext. 346

Other questions or comments? Email us at [email protected] or give us a call at (800) 257-7013
 

 
Cumberland Advisors’ Private Wealth Practice offers institutional-level money management for individual investors. We have a multi-decade history of service to institutional clients – independent non-profits, foundations, qualified retirement plans, and government entities. As a private investor, you can leverage that same expertise in the management of your portfolio. More information is available at our website and in our private wealth digital brochure
 

 
Featured Commentary From This Week
 
Q2 2024 Economic Review and Outlook by David W. Berson, Ph.D.


Q2 2024 Economic Review and Outlook

 
David W. Berson, Ph.D.
Mon Jul 1, 2024

The key points you should know: 
 

  1. The economy continued to grow, but there are signs that the pace has slowed.
  2. The job market remains solid, but perhaps less so.
  3. Inflation is still above the Fed’s longer-term goal, although it is easing again.
  4. The Federal Reserve expects to start easing later this year, but not yet and by less than it had previously expected.
  5. The soft landing appears to be here – but for how long?


A look back at the second quarter, slower growth but no recession (at least not yet):

Real GDP growth slowed substantially in the first quarter, down to a 1.4 percent annualized rate. This was the slowest pace since the second quarter of 2022 and is below most estimates of trend growth. With that diminutive growth, is the long-heralded recession finally about to appear? Probably not. 
 

  • “Core” growth (real final sales to private domestic purchasers) edged down only slightly to an annualized rate of 2.6 percent. This was a tad faster than the 4-quarter growth rate of 2.7 percent – a smoothed measure that removes many temporary gyrations in growth.
  • The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate of second quarter real GDP growth is 2.2 percent – far from recessionary and above trend (a likely range of 1.5-2.0 percent).

But even if real GDP growth in the second quarter is stronger than in the first, there are good reasons to believe that the economy is slowing (and it is likely that core GDP growth will be less rapid).

Housing has been the sector that has most taken it on the chin. A lack of supply in the post-Covid period came from the large share of mortgages at or near record low interest rates, and they will be slow to transact. This lack of supply has led to record house prices – and when combined with higher mortgage rates this year, has caused home sales to drop.

  

Commentary continues: https://www.cumber.com/market-commentary/q2-2024-economic-review-and-outlook

 


 

 

- Special to the Herald-Tribune -
Cumberland Comment by David R. Kotok

Special to the Herald-Tribune - Domestic politics, geopolitical issues cloud economic outlook - Cumberland Comment by David R. Kotok

 

Continue reading "Domestic politics, geopolitical issues cloud economic outlook" by David R. Kotok at the Herald Tribune website: https://www.heraldtribune.com/story/business/2024/07/01/david-r-kotok-domestic-politics-global-hotspots-create-uncertainty/74205423007/


Podcast: “Kotok Celebrates Half Century of Navigating Fed, Inflation & Markets,”

  Kathleen Hays Presents: Central Bank Central Podcast

“Kotok Celebrates Half Century of Navigating Fed, Inflation and Markets,” Kathleen Hays Presents: Central Bank Central Podcast
 


You're invited to join David R. Kotok for a recent a podcast interview with David's  longtime friend and journalist, Kathleen Hays. There is also an edited transcript at link below. Please enjoy.
 
“Kotok Celebrates Half Century of Navigating Fed, Inflation and Markets,” Kathleen Hays Presents: Central Bank Central Podcast 
https://kathleenhays.substack.com/p/kotok-celebrates-half-century-of

Transcript for “Kotok Celebrates Half Century of Navigating Fed, Inflation and Markets,”podcast: https://www.cumber.com/market-commentary/51-years

 

 

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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.