Thank you for watching Cumberland Advisors' Friday, January 21, 2022 Week In Review, an end-of-week update on market conditions, equities & bonds with with Matt McAleer, Executive Vice President & Director of Equity Strategies, and John Mousseau, President, CEO, & Director of Fixed Income.
Matt McAleer & Equities
- Tough week!
- More damage to growth but value catching up
- Late day selloffs disappointing, with capital leaving the market vs rotating sectors
- IWM showing breakdown out of long consolidation
- Step back and slow down into high velocity drawdowns
John Mousseau & Fixed Income
- Bond yields down a little, reacting to equity markets
- Increased muni outflows in high yield space
- Looking towards next week’s housing price index numbers
- Rents rising could broadcast even higher inflation
Please send any feedback from today's email/video to Matt McAleer. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt's Email: [email protected]
-Link to Matt's Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013 ext. 346
Other questions or comments? Email us at [email protected] or give us a call at (800) 257-7013
Long-Term Economic Consequences
of Pandemics – The Big Picture
A recent missive by Barry Ritholtz examines the long-term economic consequences of pandemics and a sample of this work is below along with a link to the "Big Picture."
"I was speaking with my fishing buddy David Kotok recently about a research project he has been working on: 'What are the long-term economic consequences of pandemics?' His research goes back to the ancient Greeks, and I’ll post something when his paper comes out. But Kotok pointed me towards a fascinating white paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, which studied the impact of 19 pandemics stretching back to the 14th century.
"What did they find?
“Significant macroeconomic after-effects of pandemics persist for decades, with real rates of return substantially depressed, in stark contrast to what happens after wars. Our findings are consistent with the neoclassical growth model: capital is destroyed in wars, but not in pandemics; pandemics instead may induce relative labor scarcity and/or a shift to greater precautionary savings.
This is not hindsight bias, but rather, what the FRBSF published in June of 2020, long before wages rose significantly and labor became as scarce as it is today."
Read more: https://ritholtz.com/2022/01/economic-consequences-of-pandemics/
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