Ceasefire: An agreement to temporarily stop shooting while trying to reach a truce
Truce: A more durable cessation of shooting while antagonists attempt to reconcile differences and reach a peace treaty
Treaty: An agreement which is then memorialized and signed by both sides
The US and China seemed to have tentatively achieved a treaty when Xi visited Trump at Mar a Lago. Then more shooting started. The US and China had a truce after Buenos Aires, or so it seemed. Then more shooting started. Now after Osaka we have a ceasefire. We shall see. Here is a Bloomberg analysis of each side’s ceasefire position: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-29/u-s-china-trade-truce-side-by-side-comparison-of-statements .
The US and North Korea have had a ceasefire for decades. It has been occasionally broken by shooting. We don’t have a truce, only optics. Will there be a truce? We shall see.
A stock market relief rally because of an Osaka ceasefire will also see a likely reduction in Fed rate-cut expectations. How do these two things balance each other? We shall see.
Meanwhile, we still have some cash reserve in our US stock market ETF accounts.
