We've traveled with a full Camp K contingent to Argentina. Diverse views have been exchanged among policy makers, entrepreneurs, investors, and investment professionals, all under Chatham House rules.
A longer essay will be forthcoming. My initial takeaway is worrisome. We have talked with skilled folks from four continents. Asia and Africa were absent.
The concerns about US-centric policies (Trump rhetoric and action on trade, immigration, and monetary policy) are profoundly disturbing when viewed through the eyes of others. In my many years of global travel, I've rarely seen this much worry and lack of clarity.
We note anecdotal evidence of economic decisions being deferred. Behaviors are changing out of fear. Businesses don't know what to expect so they defer actions when they can. Why Trump is postponing or deferring tax changes in favor of attacking Obamacare seems inexplicable to many.
Some compare this to the political mistake Obama made 8 years ago when he advanced healthcare instead of directly attacking the financial crisis first. Is Trump doing the same thing?
In-depth discussions with people at ministerial and central bank levels accentuate these rising concerns. Sophisticated analysis of financial market spreads confirms the concerns.
We are drafting this from South America at the intersection of three frontiers. More detail is coming.
Meanwhile, a cash reserve remains in place in our stock market ETF portfolios. And bond placements favor high-grade credits, not junk. We are at our Sarasota desk on Monday.
