In the annals of research and analysis of war, geopolitical risk, and defense, one can find many “armchair generals.” They are in the mainstream media and on social media. I get emailed comments from some of them.
In addition, there are bad actors in the disinformation distribution system that we all now encounter daily. Here’s one example: “How Russia uses the Israel-Gaza Crisis in its disinformation campaign against the West,” https://www.icct.nl/publication/how-russia-uses-israel-gaza-crisis-its-disinformation-campaign-against-west. Here’s another take: “Doppelganger: How a Russian disinformation campaign is exploiting the Israel-Hamas war,” https://www.brusselstimes.com/779271/russian-disinformation-campaign-draws-false-parallells-between-ukraine-and-gaza .
And then there is the option to hear from real generals with real experience. Here’s one of those opportunities.
On Friday, December 8, 2023, the Global Interdependence Center, and the Air Force Association sponsored a virtual event entitled “Potential Global Impacts of the Wars in Ukraine and Israel.” The event was a continuation of a conversation that is in its third year – it began after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
I was a moderator and introduced the participants in the session, who included Major General David “Scott” Gray, United States Air Force (Ret.), Chair, President, and CEO of the Combat Wounded Veteran Challenge; General Philip M. Breedlove, United States Air Force (Ret.), former Commander, Supreme Allied Command, Europe; Lyric Hughes Hale, Editor-in-Chief of EconVue and producer of the Hale Report, a Chicago-based podcast series on economics; William Kennedy, Global Interdependence Center Board Chair and CEO, RiskBridge Advisors, LLC; and Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy, Academy Securities.
The participants’ full bios and the complete video of the session may be viewed here: https://www.interdependence.org/resources/potential-global-impacts-of-the-wars-in-ukraine-and-israel/
The keynote speaker, introduced by Major General Gray, was General Philip M. Breedlove, who led off by strongly emphasizing the need for “Western leadership, not Western retreat.” America, he said, faces some “interesting decisions.” He ticked off the five major global threats the US confronts on a daily basis – those posed by Russia, China, Iran (and its proxies), and North Korea – and then went on to examine the intersections between the Ukraine and Israel campaigns and the areas where the two compete or don’t compete for our resources. Gen. Breedlove pushed back against “strict conservatives and isolationists” who argue that we cannot afford both the Ukraine and Israel campaigns, much less all five. However, he pointed up weaknesses in our current policy regarding the US military-industrial complex. He delivered a heartfelt and well-reasoned defense of our vital support for Ukraine.
Lyric Hughes Hale took the stage next, to discuss the potential for regional wars to spill over into a world war. Her conclusion was that, while another global conflagration is unlikely, it is certainly possible; and averting it will require deeper global cooperation. At my behest, Lyric also provided a concise, useful summary of the economic situation faced by China.
Bill Kennedy led off the final session, on financial and economic impacts of, by making the key point that shifting global economic relationships were leading to a resurgence in wars of opportunism, as countries continue to struggle to capture capital and resources and gain economic leverage. So, for the first time in decades, it is now incredibly challenging for investors to think about asset allocation. Bill shared some thinking on how to manage that uncertainty, and he concluded by noting that geopolitical events often have “short, muted, and counterintuitive impacts on markets.”
Peter Tchir wrapped the morning up with remarks on the lack of efficacy of sanctions; the potential inflationary impact, especially for Europe, of rebuilding Ukraine; and the emergence of possible supply chain issues as companies shy away from shipping through the Suez Canal. He touched on the key role of Saudi Arabia as it deals with internal uncertainty over its geopolitical alignment. Finally, he saw China’s strengthening alliances with resource-rich autocratic nations as constituting the US’s primary geopolitical challenge. Oil is still important, but is China outcompeting us for essential digital-era resources like cobalt, nickel, and lithium?
A question and answer session followed.
We hope readers find the sessions worthwhile.
David R. Kotok
Chief Investment Officer
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