Hurricane Ian Notice

Due to the impending Hurricane Ian and its impact on the Sarasota area; Cumberland Advisors has mobilized and relocated our disaster recovery team to our Vineland, NJ office. If the storm does affect the Sarasota area, Cumberland Advisors’ staff members are on standby, and ready to provide you with any assistance you may need.  Our phone lines and emails will be monitored, and we will respond to matters on a priority basis.
For any urgent concerns you may also contact the following individuals by email directly:

For our clients residing in the Sarasota area, Cumberland Advisors knows nothing is more important than the safety of you and your family. We urge you to take the necessary steps to protect your loved ones. Check your supplies and make sure you have plenty of fresh water, flashlights, and a battery-operated radio. Cumberland values our customers’ security and peace of mind, and our goal is to provide outstanding service.
Thank you for entrusting us to continue to provide you service and may all stay safe.


CCC Credit Spreads Update

David R. Kotok
Wed Aug 31, 2022

CCC spreads are now significantly higher than the pre-Covid December 31, 2019, level. This widening spread suggests that the Fed’s policy of tightening by raising rates while shrinking its balance sheet is starting to tighten financial conditions.  

Data: Bloomberg; Cumberland Advisors


CCC Credit Spreads Update Chart for Aug-30-2022



(For higher resolution, follow this link: CCC Credit Spreads Update Chart for Aug-30-2022)

It is important to remember that the spread widening is occurring while both components of this credit spread are rising in actual nominal terms. Also note that the energy price rise windfall to bond holders is exhausted. We examine the windfall, and that is why we show two series together so readers can see the spread with and without the energy price windfall. Credit spreads are extremely important, change with high frequency, and function as a market-based leading indicator. In the present case, these two credit spreads are warning of trouble ahead.

David R. Kotok
Chairman & Chief Investment Officer
Email | Bio

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