Cumberland Advisors Sun May 3, 2020 Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer and John Mousseau. </p> <p></center><br /> John joins Matt on camera this week and they talk about:<br /> -Our thoughts on small cap and mid cap rallies<br /> -Demand during pullbacks<br /> -Our adjustments in portfolios<br /> -Biotech<br /> -Weekly momentum<br /> -What we hope to see next week<br /> -Bond outflows<br /> -Congress<br /> -Stimulus<br /> -Direct aid<br /> -Unemployment<br /> -Where bond yields are going<br /> -Bond deals coming to market<br /> -Oversubscription<br /> -The state of Illinois, its reception, and why it's important</p> <p>Thank you for taking the time to join us.</p> <p>Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this week's update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails.</p> <p>Watch in the player above or at this link: <a href="https://youtu.be/4vUpP9TFAXY" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://youtu.be/4vUpP9TFAXY</a></p> <p>Have a safe weekend,</p> <p><strong>-Matt McAleer</strong></p> </div> </div> <p><em>Ways to reach Matt:</em></p> <p>-Link to Matt's Email: <a href="mailto:Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com?subject=Weekly%20Update" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com</a><br /> -Link to Matt's Twitter: <a href="https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4">https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4</a><br /> -Link to Matt's LinkedIn: <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/">https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/</a><br /> -Call Matt: <a href="tel:800-257-7013p346" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">(800) 257-7013</a></p> <p>Other questions or comments? Email us at <a href="mailto:info@cumber.com?subject=Comment" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">info@cumber.com</a> or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.</p> <p> </p> <p><em>Contact any one of our advisors by following this link: <a href="https://www.cumber.com/our-people/">https://www.cumber.com/our-people/</a><br /> </em></p> <hr /> <h1>MARKET COMMENTARY</h1> <div class="categorysub"> <article id="post-52135" class="post-52135 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-market-commentary tag-leo-chen-ph-d tag-market-volatility tag-vix"> <header class="entry-header"> <h2 class="inner_text_heading"><a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-short-term-vs-long-term-vix/" rel="bookmark">Short-Term vs. Long-Term VIX</a></h2> <h6><strong>Author:</strong> Leo Chen Ph.D., <strong>Post Date:</strong> May 1, 2020</h6> </header> <div class="entry-summary"> <p><a class="post-thumbnail" href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-short-term-vs-long-term-vix/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><img class="attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image aligncenter" src="/sites/default/files/uploads/2020/05/CA-Market-Commentary-Short-Term-vs.-Long-Term-VIX-672x372.jpg" sizes="(max-width: 672px) 100vw, 672px" srcset="/sites/default/files/uploads/2020/05/CA-Market-Commentary-Short-Term-vs.-Long-Term-VIX-672x372.jpg 672w, /sites/default/files/uploads/2020/05/CA-Market-Commentary-Short-Term-vs.-Long-Term-VIX-1038x576.jpg 1038w" alt="CA-Market-Commentary-Short-Term vs. Long-Term VIX" width="600" height="332" /> </a>As the equity markets rally from the March 24th bottom gains steam, the VIX volatility index has more than halved since its all-time high on March 16th. VIX hit the 80 level for the first time during the financial crisis. Unlike a decade ago, it only took a month for the VIX to drop below [<a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-short-term-vs-long-term-vix/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Continued...</a>]</p> </div> </article> </div> <div class="categorysub"> <article id="post-52123" class="post-52123 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-market-commentary tag-china tag-coronavirus tag-covid-19 tag-david-r-kotok tag-wuhan"> <header class="entry-header"> <div class="entry-meta"></div> <h2 class="inner_text_heading"><a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-the-covid-19-blame-game-part-1/" rel="bookmark">The Covid-19 Blame Game, Part 1</a></h2> <h6><strong>Author:</strong> David R. Kotok, <strong>Post Date:</strong> April 30, 2020</h6> </header> <div class="entry-summary"> <p><a class="post-thumbnail" href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-the-covid-19-blame-game-part-1/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><img class="attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image aligncenter" src="/sites/default/files/uploads/2020/04/Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-The-Covid-19-Blame-Game-Part-1-672x372.jpg" sizes="(max-width: 672px) 100vw, 672px" srcset="/sites/default/files/uploads/2020/04/Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-The-Covid-19-Blame-Game-Part-1-672x372.jpg 672w, /sites/default/files/uploads/2020/04/Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-The-Covid-19-Blame-Game-Part-1-1038x576.jpg 1038w" alt="Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - The Covid-19 Blame Game, Part 1" width="600" height="332" /> </a>As the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus emerged in Wuhan, spread throughout China (as millions of Wuhan residents fled their city), and then found its way overseas to cause a global pandemic, pressure mounted on governments to justify their actions in response, and a blame game soon ensued, with the Chinese and US among the main players. Initially, [<a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-the-covid-19-blame-game-part-1/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Continued...</a>]</p> </div> </article> </div> <div class="categorysub"> <article id="post-52099" class="post-52099 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-market-commentary tag-commercial-paper-funding-facility tag-economy tag-federal-reserve tag-money-market-fund-liquidity-facility tag-paycheck-protection-program tag-ppp-liquidity-program tag-primary-dealer-credit-facility tag-robert-eisenbeis tag-term-asset-backed-securities-loan-facility"> <header class="entry-header"> <h2 class="null"><a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-the-fed-and-markets/" rel="bookmark">The Fed and Markets</a></h2> <h6><strong>Author:</strong> Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., <strong>Post Date:</strong> April 28, 2020</h6> </header> <div class="entry-summary"> <p><a class="post-thumbnail" href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-the-fed-and-markets/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><img class="attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image aligncenter" src="/sites/default/files/uploads/2019/05/Federal-Reserve-Building-672x372.jpg" sizes="(max-width: 672px) 100vw, 672px" srcset="/sites/default/files/uploads/2019/05/Federal-Reserve-Building-672x372.jpg 672w, /sites/default/files/uploads/2019/05/Federal-Reserve-Building-1038x576.jpg 1038w" alt="Federal Reserve Building" width="600" height="332" /> </a>Congress and the Trump administration have embarked upon a massive federal stimulus program to mitigate the impact of the coronavirus on the US economy. At the same time, the Federal Reserve has stepped up to bolster financial markets, having announced, in addition to its ongoing support of the repo market, a series of ten loan [<a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-the-fed-and-markets/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Continued...</a>]</p> </div> <footer class="entry-meta"></footer> </article> </div> <div class="categorysub"> <article id="post-52087" class="post-52087 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-market-commentary tag-covid-19 tag-david-r-kotok tag-doug-henwood tag-esg tag-green-bonds tag-philippa-dunne tag-pollution tag-the-liscio-report tag-tlrwire"> <header class="entry-header"> <div class="entry-meta"></div> <h2 class="null"><a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-guest-commentary-take-a-deep-breath/" rel="bookmark">Take a Deep Breath</a></h2> <h6><strong>Author:</strong> David R. Kotok, <strong>Post Date:</strong> April 26, 2020</h6> </header> <div class="entry-summary"> <p><a class="post-thumbnail" href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-guest-commentary-take-a-deep-breath/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><img class="attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image aligncenter" src="/sites/default/files/uploads/2020/04/Guest-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-Take-a-Deep-Breath-672x372.jpg" sizes="(max-width: 672px) 100vw, 672px" srcset="/sites/default/files/uploads/2020/04/Guest-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-Take-a-Deep-Breath-672x372.jpg 672w, /sites/default/files/uploads/2020/04/Guest-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-Take-a-Deep-Breath-1038x576.jpg 1038w" alt="Guest Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Take a Deep Breath" width="600" height="332" /> </a>Philippa Dunne and Doug Henwood provide a terrific daily research service, TLR Analytics, that focuses mostly on the component details of the American labor force. They report high-frequency information and offer dissection of details. In times like the present, these “nuggets” are helpful for investment decisions and for economic impact assessment. I read their work [<a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-guest-commentary-take-a-deep-breath/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Continued...</a>]</p> </div> </article> </div> <p> </p> <div class="categorysub"> <article id="post-52063" class="post-52063 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-market-commentary tag-brexit tag-covid-19 tag-eurozone tag-united-k tag-united-kingdom tag-william-witherell tag-wto"> <header class="entry-header"> <h2 class="inner_text_heading"><a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-the-uk-economy-falls-off-the-cliff-brexit-negotiations-resume/" rel="bookmark">The UK Economy Falls Off the Cliff; Brexit Negotiations Resume</a></h2> <h6><strong>Author:</strong> William Witherell, Ph.D., <strong>Post Date: April 24, 2020</strong></h6> </header> <div class="entry-summary"> <p><a class="post-thumbnail" href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-the-uk-economy-falls-off-the-cliff-brexit-negotiations-resume/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><img class="attachment-post-thumbnail wp-post-image aligncenter" src="/sites/default/files/uploads/2020/04/Guest-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-The-UK-Economy-Falls-Off-the-Cliff-Brexit-Negotiations-Resume-672x372.jpg" sizes="(max-width: 672px) 100vw, 672px" srcset="/sites/default/files/uploads/2020/04/Guest-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-The-UK-Economy-Falls-Off-the-Cliff-Brexit-Negotiations-Resume-672x372.jpg 672w, /sites/default/files/uploads/2020/04/Guest-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-The-UK-Economy-Falls-Off-the-Cliff-Brexit-Negotiations-Resume-1038x576.jpg 1038w" alt="Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - The UK Economy Falls Off the Cliff; Brexit Negotiations Resume" width="600" height="332" /></a></p> <p>The economic situation in the UK has worsened dramatically in just the month and a half since our March 4th commentary on the subject. Last week, the Bank of England’s (BOE) governor, Andrew Bailey, told journalists that he did not disagree with the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecast of a 35% decline in the UK’s [<a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-the-uk-economy-falls-off-the-cliff-brexit-negotiations-resume/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Continued…</a>]</p> </div> </article> </div> <div class="categorysub"> <article id="post-52035" class="post-52035 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-market-commentary tag-bond-market tag-covid-19 tag-john-r-mousseau tag-meredith-whitney tag-municipal-bonds tag-senator-mitch-mcconnell tag-treasuries tag-treasury-department"> <header class="entry-header"> <div class="entry-meta"></div> <h2 class="inner_text_heading"><a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-mcconnell-as-meredith-whitney/" rel="bookmark">McConnell as Meredith Whitney</a></h2> <h6><strong>Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: April 23, 2020</strong></h6> </header> <div class="entry-summary"> <p><a class="post-thumbnail" href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-mcconnell-as-meredith-whitney/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><img class="attachment-post-thumbnail wp-post-image aligncenter" src="/sites/default/files/uploads/2020/04/Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-McConnell-as-Meredith-Whitney-Mousseau-672x372.jpg" sizes="(max-width: 672px) 100vw, 672px" srcset="/sites/default/files/uploads/2020/04/Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-McConnell-as-Meredith-Whitney-Mousseau-672x372.jpg 672w, /sites/default/files/uploads/2020/04/Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-McConnell-as-Meredith-Whitney-Mousseau-1038x576.jpg 1038w" alt="Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors -McConnell as Meredith Whitney (Mousseau)" width="600" height="332" /></a></p> <p>Senate Majority Leader McConnell yesterday was reported by Bloomberg News as saying that he “would certainly be in favor of allowing states to use the bankruptcy route” rather than giving them a Federal bailout. This reminded us of 2010 when Meredith Whitney, a noted bank analyst, predicted that there would be hundreds of billions of [<a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-mcconnell-as-meredith-whitney/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Continued…</a>]</p> </div> <footer class="entry-meta"></footer> </article> </div> <div class="categorysub"> <article id="post-52015" class="post-52015 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-market-commentary tag-coronavirus tag-covid-19 tag-david-r-kotok tag-masks tag-pandemics tag-personal-protective-equipment tag-ppe"> <header class="entry-header"> <div class="entry-meta"></div> <h2 class="inner_text_heading"><a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-about-masks-plus-a-personal-note/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">About Masks – (Plus a personal note)</a></h2> <h6><strong>Author:</strong> David R. Kotok, <strong>Post Date: April 22, 2020</strong></h6> </header> <div class="entry-summary"> <p><a class="post-thumbnail" href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-about-masks-plus-a-personal-note/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><img class="attachment-post-thumbnail wp-post-image aligncenter" src="/sites/default/files/uploads/2020/04/David-Kotok-Mask-672x372.jpg" sizes="(max-width: 672px) 100vw, 672px" srcset="/sites/default/files/uploads/2020/04/David-Kotok-Mask-672x372.jpg 672w, /sites/default/files/uploads/2020/04/David-Kotok-Mask-1038x576.jpg 1038w" alt="David Kotok - About Masks" width="600" height="332" /></a></p> <p>Straight Talk on Masks from Anthony Fauci – In a widely shared YouTube interview with Lilly Singh, Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and a member of the White House coronavirus task force, explained the rationale for wearing face masks. He also explained why the CDC didn’t initially suggest [<a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-about-masks-plus-a-personal-note/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Continued…</a>]</p> </div> </article> </div> <div class="categorysub"> <article id="post-51993" class="post-51993 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-market-commentary tag-coronavirus tag-covid-19 tag-david-r-kotok tag-economy tag-jeffrey-p-gold tag-peter-a-gold"> <header class="entry-header"> <div class="entry-meta"></div> <h2 class="inner_text_heading"><a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-covid-19-health-recovery-and-economic-recovery-go-hand-in-hand/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">COVID – 19: Health Recovery and Economic Recovery Go Hand in Hand</a></h2> <h6><strong>Author:</strong> Peter A. Gold, Esquire & Jeffrey P. Gold, MD, <strong>Post Date: April 20, 2020</strong></h6> </header> <div class="entry-summary"> <p><a class="post-thumbnail" href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-covid-19-health-recovery-and-economic-recovery-go-hand-in-hand/"><img class="attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image" src="/sites/default/files/uploads/2020/04/Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-COVID-19-Health-Recovery-and-Economic-Recovery-Go-Hand-in-Hand-672x372.jpg" sizes="(max-width: 672px) 100vw, 672px" srcset="/sites/default/files/uploads/2020/04/Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-COVID-19-Health-Recovery-and-Economic-Recovery-Go-Hand-in-Hand-672x372.jpg 672w, /sites/default/files/uploads/2020/04/Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-COVID-19-Health-Recovery-and-Economic-Recovery-Go-Hand-in-Hand-1038x576.jpg 1038w" alt="COVID - 19: Health Recovery and Economic Recovery Go Hand in Hand" width="600" height="332" /></a>There is a lot of competing information in circulation relating to the current coronavirus pandemic and there is now a rush to offer opinion on how to best reopen economies and communities in a safe manner. It is our honor and privilege to introduce you to the following authors who also happen to be brothers. [<a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-covid-19-health-recovery-and-economic-recovery-go-hand-in-hand/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Continued…</a>]</p> <hr /> <h2 class="null">Bloomberg Radio Interview: David Kotok on Fed News</h2> <p>April 29, 2020 – Running time 08:03</p> <p>David Kotok, Chairman & Chief Investment Officer at Cumberland Advisors, discusses the latest Fed news with Doug Krizner and Juliette Saly on Bloomberg Daybreak Asia.</p> <p>LISTEN HERE: <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2020-04-30/david-kotok-on-fed-news-radio?sref=XreMbXAF" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2020-04-30/david-kotok-on-fed-news-radio?sref=XreMbXAF</a></p> <p> </p> <p><center><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2020-04-30/david-kotok-on-fed-news-radio?sref=XreMbXAF" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><img src="https://mcusercontent.com/d6f020f3bd6a1e2c4eb254e6c/images/b96d4abc-6b35-4b73-aefb-1ac01516a566.png" width="500" height="225" data-file-id="2708485" /></a></center></div> <p> </p> </article> </div> <hr /> <p>Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.</p> <p><a href="https://www.cumber.com/market-commentary-email-sign-up/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries</a></p> <p>Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.</p>
