Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Dec 03, 2018 - Dec 07, 2018)

Matt
talks about trading and pricing in this week's review. Do we think the
market is worth 7% less than when it started on Monday? David Kotok
kicks things off with some history of the market going back to 69/70 and
offers some projections going forward. WATCH HERE.

MARKET COMMENTARY
 

Stock Market and Tariff Truce

David R. Kotok 12/21/2018

Market Backlash

Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. 12/21/2018

Is Climate Warming Creating More Dangerous Hurricanes?

Bob Bunting 12/21/2018

4Q 2018 Review: Market Volatility

Leo Chen, Ph.D. 12/19/2018

Leveraged ETF Tracking Error

Leo Chen, Ph.D. 12/14/2018

TNB and the Regulatory Dialectic

Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. 12/13/2018

Sign up or see more Market Commentary
   

FEATURED INTERVIEW
 
Fair For Mnuchin To Pinpoint Algo-Trading: Eisenbeis (Radio) – Bloomberg Markets

Bloomberg Markets – Bob Eisenbeis,
Vice Chairman and Chief Monetary Economist at Cumberland Advisors, and
Former Director of Research at the Atlanta Fed, on the FOMC meeting and
markets. Hosted by Pimm Foxx and Lisa Ambramowicz. Running time 08:02
 
Listen here: https://www.cumber.com/fair-for-mnuchin-to-pinpoint-algo-trading-eisenbeis-radio-bloomberg-markets/

:

IN THE NEWS
 

Wallet Hub - What are the Do’s and Don’ts of New Year’s resolution-making?
Quoted:Gabriel Hament 12/19/2018

Sarasota Herald Tribune - Sarasota analysts surveying stock-market damage
Quoted:Matt McAleer 12/18/2018

Newsweek - Recession 2019? Chances of Economic Decline in Next 12 Months Now Highest of Trump Presidency, Experts’ Survey Finds
Quoted:David R. Kotok 12/18/2018

CNN Business - This is why presidents shouldn’t mess with the Fed
Quoted:David R. Kotok 12/17/2018

Painting by Cumberland Advisors' Chief Global Economist, William Witherell

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
 

Surplus, Interest, Debt: Personal Finance in a Nutshell

Michael McNiven, Ph.D.10/26/2017
Cumberland Advisors in partnership with the University of South
Florida, Sarasota-Manatee (USFSM) and the Global Interdependence Center
(GIC), with support from the Financial Planners Association (FPA), are
proud to announce the 3rd annual Financial Literacy Day which will be
held in Sarasota, FL at USFSM on April 11, 2019. Several nationally
recognized speakers are on the agenda. See the USF Sarasota-Manatee
website for further information about our upcoming event, “Financial
Markets and the Economy – Financial Literacy Day III.” What follows here
is a basic guide for individuals regarding their personal approach to
debt management and wealth creation. U.S. household consumer debt has
reached an all-time high of almost $13 trillion. This includes student
loans, auto loans, credit cards, and mortgages/home equity lines of
credit. Many of our friends and neighbors of all socioeconomic classes
have not been exposed enough to fundamental financial principles. Feel
free to share it with others in your communities who may benefit from a
refresher on these basic points. An easy to share and downloadable PDF
version of this piece is available too. Continued...

Kilimanjaro

David R. Kotok 06/07/2017
This is the end of my fourth safari. South Africa and Zambia now
recede into memory as a fresh natural mosaic of Tanzania and Kenya add a
layer to the blending of remarkable African images. Amsterdam to Arusha
to start. Coffee fresh and strong. Then off. Tarangire, Lake Manyara,
Ngorongoro, Serengeti, Masai Mara, and other names are exquisite, exotic
labels that still cannot wholly capture the vividness of the images and
memories. Somehow this fourth time, there is still the excitement and
wonder of my first time in South Africa, many years ago. In the bush
there is an expanse of separation from the turmoil of global politics,
terrorism and markets. Roles and patterns in the bush are understood.
Carnivores and herbivores know their places and methods in the pursuit
of life and of death. Suicide bombers killing children are not part of
the bush’s ecosystem. Hemingway’s greatness with his pen was to blend
powerful opposites in his depiction of the human drama. Hence we started
this commentary with his movingly descriptive metaphor of Harry’s
death. In “Snows,” Hemingway’s writing alternately flows between
retrospective stream of consciousness and the present, between the
internal and private place that is uniquely known only to each of us and
the public behavior that may or may not be under our control. That has
also been the tenor of the conversation we have enjoyed privately on
this trip, contrasted with the interactions and observations made during
two weeks on three continents while interfacing with the diversity of
the human form and spirit. Yes, we followed markets daily. And, yes, we
watched developments in Washington and Pyongyang and Beijing and
Jerusalem and London and elsewhere. And, yes, we were in frequent
contact with our colleagues and office. Such is travel in today’s world.
Even in the bush there is a tower and a signal. And, for us, there is a
personal and professional curiosity that requires our always being
current. There is something else. Continued...

 

UPCOMING EVENTS
 

Adapting to a Changing Climate
From hurricanes to red tide and sea level rise, learn how a
changing climate affects the Sarasota-Manatee region and the state of
Florida. Expert speakers will discuss the challenges and impact on
Florida and other coastal communities while uncovering the adaptive
strategies that bring unique social and economic opportunities. The
featured speaker is Bob Bunting, CEO Waterstone
Strategies/Scientist/Entrepreneur - January 25, 2019 – Selby Auditorium,
USFSM , 8:30 am – 3 pm. Lunch is included. Cumberland Advisors is a
sponsor and Patricia Healy, CFA, from our firm will discuss "Climate,
Municipal Bonds and Infrastructure" with the audience. Details Here.

U.S. Manufacturing in a Global Context
Save the Date! GIC is returning to Sarasota, FL on Friday, February
1, 2019 to partner with the Financial Planning Associates of the
Suncoast and Cumberland Advisors. Join us at the Sarasota Yacht Club as
we welcome Bill Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Adviser of the
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, for a presentation on U.S.
Manufacturing in a Global Context. Strauss is a senior economist and
economic adviser in the economic research department at the Federal
Reserve Bank of Chicago, which he joined in 1982. His chief
responsibilities include analyzing the current performance of both the
Midwest economy and the manufacturing sector for use in monetary policy.
Details Here.

 
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES
 

Lessons from Thucydides
David R. Kotok has written the monograph pamphlet, “Lessons from
Thucydides” detailing information asymmetries and their implications for
investors and world affairs. The concept of a Thucydides Trap and its
rise and avoidability (or lack thereof) is often debated and David makes
a case for dealing with them weaving current and historical events into
a comprehensive narrative.

This free monograph also has lessons for President Donald Trump’s trade
policy. Can the United States avoid a Thucydides Trap with China &
Xi Jinping? Will you benefit from the Lessons of Thucydides or fall
victim to a Thucydides Trap? If information is key, you now have a
handbook at your fingertips. Download a copy of this monograph in either
PDF (free) or Kindle ($.99) format.https://www.cumber.com/thucydides/
 

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