Material and commentaries published in the past may or may not be helpful in analyzing current economic or financial market activity. Please note publishing date when reviewing materials. Please email [email protected] for our current thoughts or to reach an advisor.
The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.
These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.
As part of Cumberland Advisors' continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week's short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.
Matt McAleer is on deck to share his week in trading with you along with other thoughts.
* Can't ask for anything more from the broad indexes/sectors across the board
* Even defensive sectors in this rally are acting well
* Good performance in strategies
* Long term risk-reward appears positive
* What concerns us? Sentiment. Equity-only put-call ratios.
* We used to call equity-only put-call ratio speculators, "Janis Joplins" because they were "Busted flat in Baton Rouge"
* Why "Janis Joplins"? Matt explains!
* Is there anything you'd like us to discuss?
* Feel free to forward our videos to other traders and investors that might find them helpful.
Watch in the video player above or at this link: https://www.youtube.com/embed/o5VwjVapUbY
Have a great weekend and thank you for joining us at Cumberland Advisors.
-Matt McAleer
Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt's Email: [email protected]
-Link to Matt's Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013
Other questions or comments? Email us at [email protected] or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.
Quoted: David R. Kotok – 12/27/2019
Quoted: David R. Kotok – 12/24/2019
Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA – 12/18/2019
Quoted: David R. Kotok – 12/16/2019
Quoted: David R. Kotok – 12/11/2019
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David R. Kotok offers this ongoing series of “Year-End & 2020 Forecast Notes” for your consideration.
This holiday season has come with ill tidings with respect to gun violence: “At least 28 people were wounded in 3 separate shootings across these 3 states this weekend,” CNN, Dec. 23, 2019, https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/23/us/three-shootings-baltimore-minnesota-chicago/index.html “13 people were shot at a Chicago house party honoring a man killed earlier this year,” CNN, Dec. 22, 2019, https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/22/us/chicago-shooting-sunday/index.html [Continued…]
Markets greeted the most recent monthly employment report with a rousing cheer and a robust and broadening stock market rally; bonds reacted to an improved outlook based on this report; and interest rates rose while the futures market of the short-term policy rate (fed funds) adjusted to a lower likelihood of a rate cutting sequence [Continued…]
The worst-performing US stock market sector in 2019 is energy. In retrospect, we regret that we held a position in it. Our rationale failed so far and the timing was clearly poor. But we did hold energy and we do still do. Our focus has been on domestic US energy because we believed it is [Continued…]
The outlook for inflation and for inflation-sensitive financial instruments is still highly uncertain. Note that this prognosis includes TIPS on the bond side and certain inflation-sensitive stock groups on the equity side. The world’s mature economies have been trying to get inflation up to 2% or higher for many years. They’ve had no success. An [Continued…]
US politics will be a closely watched, bubbling pot in 2020, and the media will boil over every news item. That said, it is Super Tuesday (March 3) which becomes the key date for Democrats. Republican challengers to Trump seem to be non-starters as best as we can determine. Perhaps the New Hampshire or Massachusetts [Continued…]
In addition to Trade War uncertainty, US stock markets must grapple with problematic earnings estimates for 2020. Typical year-start estimates are higher than actual outcomes, as a bias toward optimism appears around the year-end holiday time. A good example is 2019, when year-start estimates for the S&P 500 were in the $174–178 range. The actual [Continued…]
In our opinion, investors should not be deceived by any promise of a definitive Trump Trade War settlement. It isn’t in the cards. The best outcome is a truce, and even that will be more like a ceasefire. As of this writing, U.S.-China tariff talks continue, and a phase one trade deal is still expected [Continued…]
John R. Mousseau, CFA, will be joining a large gathering of members of Wall Street's financial community in Orlando this winter season for The MoneyShow Orlando 2020. The three days of the conference will focus on new investment ideas that address the current economic and geopolitical environment and will feature tools, strategies, and advice which may help you better position your portfolio.
John will be a featured speaker, giving a review of the bond market in the past year (2019) and what we should expect from the bond market in a presidential election year.
To join John in February 2020 or learn more, please visit: https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-orlando/
In the famous 1939 movie Gone with the Wind, Scarlet O’Hara (Vivien Leigh) delivers this poignant entreaty to Rhett Butler (Clark Gable): “Where shall I go? What shall I do?” Rhett counters with the retort, “Frankly, my dear, I don’t give a damn.” A blockbuster line delivered in just seconds, it has endured for decades. [Continued…]
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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.
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