The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.
MATT MCALEER'S WEEKLY RECAP
In this week's wrap up by Cumberland Advisors' Matt McAleer, we give a quick summary of Muni Bonds with Matt passing along information from CEO & Head of Fixed Income, John Mousseau. On the Equities side, "Higher lows are what we're looking for in repairing of a market," says Matt. How do we see developed markets? And how are we trading in our different strategies? Tune in and watch. Also, a quick note for our clients about how you can see our videos. WATCH HERE
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Look forward to extended quarterly videos for our clients that will incorporate equities and fixed-income in the coming weeks.
MARKET COMMENTARY
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China Slowdown and Financial Markets
William Witherell, Ph.D. 01/11/2019 -
Can the President Fire the Chairman of the Federal Reserve?
Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. 01/10/2019 -
Zika, Climate Change & January 25
David R. Kotok 01/09/2019 -
Q4 2018 Credit Commentary and a Look Ahead to 2019
Patricia Healy, CFA 01/08/2019 -
4Q18 Review: Tactical Trend
Matthew McAleer 01/04/2019 -
Q2018 Review: Puerto Rico Insured Bond
Shaun Burgess 01/03/2019 -
Total Return Taxable Fixed Income: 4Q 2018 Review
Daniel Himelberger 01/02/2019 -
4Q2018 Review: Munis Turn It Around
John R. Mousseau, CFA 12/28/2018
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UPCOMING EVENTS
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Adapting to a Changing Climate
From hurricanes to red tide and sea level rise, learn how a changing climate affects the Sarasota-Manatee region and the state of Florida. Expert speakers will discuss the challenges and impact on Florida and other coastal communities while uncovering the adaptive strategies that bring unique social and economic opportunities. The featured speaker is Bob Bunting, CEO Waterstone Strategies/Scientist/Entrepreneur - January 25, 2019 – Selby Auditorium, USFSM , 8:30 am – 3 pm. Lunch is included. Cumberland Advisors is a sponsor and Patricia Healy, CFA, from our firm will discuss "Climate, Municipal Bonds and Infrastructure" with the audience. Details Here.
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U.S. Manufacturing in a Global Context
Save the Date! GIC is returning to Sarasota, FL on Friday, February 1, 2019 to partner with the Financial Planning Associates of the Suncoast and Cumberland Advisors. Join us at the Sarasota Yacht Club as we welcome Bill Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Adviser of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, for a presentation on U.S. Manufacturing in a Global Context. Strauss is a senior economist and economic adviser in the economic research department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, which he joined in 1982. His chief responsibilities include analyzing the current performance of both the Midwest economy and the manufacturing sector for use in monetary policy. Details Here.
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Moose on the Loose - Cruise the High Seas with John Mousseau
If it's always been your dream to cruise the high seas with John Mousseau, your wish has been granted! John joins Steve Forbes and other money experts for The 31st Forbes Cruise for Investors on the Crystal Symphony. They explore cities and seaside villages stretching from Rio de Janeiro to Buenos Aires, January 24 – February 3, 2019. The roster of experts that accompany John plan to impart with their co-travellers timely and practical investment strategies including discussions of U.S. policies and how they’ll affect your portfolio. To join John or learn more, visit moneyshow.com
FEATURED INTERVIEWS
We rewind to the summer of 2018 at Camp Kotok - David Kotok leads a conversation with Stuart Hoffman, SVP & Sr. Economic Advisor at PNC, & Barry Ritholtz, Chairman & CIO at Ritholtz Wealth Management. They discuss Apple's ascension as a One Trillion Dollar Company, what impact will trade war, China, & Trump have on Apple's operations, and will the trade war and any accompanying inflation trigger a response from the Fed that could bring about recession? Also, where did they learn their outdoor and fishing skills??? Hmmmm....
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IN THE NEWS
- The Bond Buyer - Climate change, a rising tide affecting the muni market
- Quoted:John R. Mousseau, CFA 01/09/2019
- CNN Business - How Trump's trade war is unraveling the Trump rally
- Quoted:David R. Kotok 01/03/2019
- Fortune Magazine - ‘A Tremendous Opportunity to Buy.’ How Presidents Have Fared as Stock Market Prognosticators
- Quoted:Cumberland Advisors 12/28/2018
- Bloomberg - David Kotok Chairman & Chief Investment Officer of Cumberland Advisors, on markets, why munis are a buy, and outlook for bonds and markets
- Quoted:David R. Kotok 12/26/2018
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
Drachma!
David R. Kotok 05/29/2012
The drachma, the Greek currency, is over 3000 years old. It was the most widely circulated coin in the world prior to the time of Alexander the Great. Readers may enjoy a few minutes of study about Alexander the Great. His Macedonian army conquered Persia and much of the rest of the ancient world. His education came from Aristotle, his tutor up to the age of 16. He changed the political geography of the Balkans and the Mediterranean. See a few notes at the very end of this commentary. Back to the drachma. Since its reintroduction in 1832, all modern forms of the drachma have ended badly. The single exception was the exchange of the drachma for the euro in 2001. That chapter of Greek history is being rewritten now. Continued...
East Asian Kerfuffle
David R. Kotok 12/08/2013
Ieodo is a manmade platform affixed to an undersea rock (named Socotra) in the Yellow Sea. For a map and an aerial photo see Cumberland’s website. The platform is Korean, and the facility is an oceanographic research station. South Korea built the platform and claims jurisdiction, but China claims jurisdiction, too. International maritime law stipulates that undersea structures are not nationally territorial while above-sea-level structures are subject to claims. Ieodo is situated in the area where South Korea, China, and Japan are engaged in asserting claims over Air Defense Identification Zones (ADIZ). The airspace zones claimed by the three countries overlap. And now there is an occasional scrambling of military aircraft when planes enter the zones. Civilian aircraft and unarmed military or research aircraft face the choice of lengthening routes to bypass the zones or acknowledging them by advance filing of flight plans with the respective governments. And those governments face similar choices. Do they respect the zone of another country with which they disagree and file their own flight plans? Or do they ignore the claim of another country, which they contest, and thereby add to the risk of confrontation? Thus we have a geopolitical test of wills at work in East Asia. The initial US response to competing claims was to support Japan and fly two B-52s into the zone the Chinese claim, without notifying China. That move ratcheted up the Chinese response, and the Chinese scrambled fighter escorts. The incident triggered more responses and drew Korea into the kerfuffle. Continued...
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES
Lessons from Thucydides
David R. Kotok has written the monograph pamphlet, “Lessons from Thucydides” detailing information asymmetries and their implications for investors and world affairs. The concept of a Thucydides Trap and its rise and avoidability (or lack thereof) is often debated and David makes a case for dealing with them weaving current and historical events into a comprehensive narrative.
This free monograph also has lessons for President Donald Trump’s trade policy. Can the United States avoid a Thucydides Trap with China & Xi Jinping? Will you benefit from the Lessons of Thucydides or fall victim to a Thucydides Trap? If information is key, you now have a handbook at your fingertips. Download a copy of this monograph in either PDF (free) or Kindle ($.99) format. https://www.cumber.com/thucydides/
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