The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.
These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.
CUMBERLAND ADVISORS' WEEKLY RECAP
As part of Cumberland Advisors' continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week's short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.
This week we have John Mousseau and Matt McAleer on camera sharing their thoughts with you.
John talks about:
-What we saw today and earlier in week
-Events earlier in week were people trying to run away from risk
-Very tough week for bonds in general
-Today, Treasurys continued to back off - Good in our opinion. Do we see a trend? No. But it's a first step to a reversion to the mean.
-Things that you thought were essential services may not be that essential in a new world: things like a subway or an airport. Eventually, they will be.
-We try to drill down and make sure that credit is better than it was before and try to improve credit; it's going to take a while to come back.
Matt talks about:
-Fear in the market
-The Equity Only Put/Call Ratio spiked to 128. Matt explains and brings some history to bear.
-What might lead to a relief rally?
-We have three words we used in our research meeting and calls on Monday: Credit, credit, credit!
-On the Equity side, what can we do to take advantage of some of this volatility? We're going to let the volatility come to us.
-Don't chase equities. Bid, let them hit you. Be comfortable months out owning that security.
-Dislocation and nibbling on the way down
-Pin your top 20 best movers list where you can see it. Review them. Do some work on them. You'll see we own some of those names.
-Matt mentions Microsoft, Apple, Adobe Systems.
-The market will dictate to us if we're entering a trading market vs a buy and hold one. Don't try to outguess it.
Please reach out to me (or John) with any questions/comments you may have about this video, I always appreciate your calls, comments, and emails.
Watch this week's update in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/XIJaXAY2mpY
Did you miss the mid-week update? It's up on YouTube here: https://youtu.be/eTqXYjNdfNE
Lastly, I participated in an interview with Bloomberg on Thursday and you can listen to that here if desired:
Bloomberg Chief Washington Correspondent Kevin Cirilli talked to Matthew McAleer about the market sell-off.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2020-03-12/sound-on-market-drop-corona-virus-response-podcast
Have a great weekend and thank you for joining us at Cumberland Advisors.
-Matt McAleer
PS: Our energy conference, called "An Outlook on Energy Policy" has been postponed due to coronavirus worries. We thank you for your interest but the travel restrictions and cautious direction we and other firms have put in place results in this prudent delay. We hope to reschedule later this year and we'll share a new date when it's been decided.
Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt's Email: [email protected]
-Link to Matt's Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013
Other questions or comments? Email us at [email protected] or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.
Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/
Bloomberg Radio
Market Commentary
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Airlines and COVID19
Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: March 13, 2020
Cumberland portfolios hold no airline stocks, no transportation stocks, no hotel, leisure or hospitality stocks. Sector ETFs were sold. Some of these stocks are part of the broad based ETFs which are tied to an index basket. Now let’s look at airlines. Since the advent of widespread air travel following World War II, the world [Continued…]
Cumberland Advisors Special Update on Market Conditions, Bonds & Equities
Author: Matthew McAleer, Post Date: March 11, 2020
Dear Clients & Friends, We bring you this midweek update video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios. John offers his insights into how the bond market is behaving and Matt weighs in on what’s happening in the equities market. There is a lot of volatility at work. Please reach out [Continued…]
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Saudi-Russia Oil War
Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: March 10, 2020
A quick note about oil. The Saudi-Russia price war means OPEC disarray and a lower oil price for the US. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports: “In 2019, about 142.23 billion gallons (or about 3.39 billion barrels) of finished motor gasoline were consumed in the United States, an average of about 389.68 million gallons [Continued…]
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Whatever It Takes!
Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: March 9, 2020
Tuesday morning March 9, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York announced an increase in the current monthly schedule of repo transactions designed to deal with short-term liquidity problems for primary dealers and certain other market participants: from $100 billion to $150 billion in overnight repos and for two-week term repos from $20 billion to [Continued…]
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – The VIX Spread
Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date:
The S&P 500 dropped 11.5% the week before last week, the fastest correction in its history. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had two 1000-point drops in that week; the Dow also had four days with 1000-point intraday swings in the past two weeks, making it six out of ten trading days with 1000-point movement on [Continued…]
Cumberland Advisors Letter to Clients with respect to COVID-19
Author: Cumberland Advisors, Post Date:
To our clients: Cumberland Advisors continues to monitor global as well as local developments with respect to COVID-19 (the illness caused by the new coronavirus), while constantly considering changes that may be required to our operations, processes, and systems to ensure continued support of our clients. We constantly review and update our business continuity and [Continued…]
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Did the Fed Just Waste 50 Basis Points?
Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: March 6, 2020
On Tuesday morning, shortly after the market opened, the Fed did what other central banks concerned about the coronavirus didn’t do, and that was cut its policy rate. Not only did it cut the rate, it did so by 50 basis points, dropping its policy rate to the range of 1%–1.25%. As the chart below [Continued…]
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Coronavirus Infects Bond Yields
Author: Tom Patterson & John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: March 5, 2020
The turmoil and volatility in the equity markets is also greatly affecting bond markets, with both taxable and tax-free yields shifting down sharply. You can see the dramatic drop in yields this year, particularly in US Treasury yields, with the very large drop in the past month as the coronavirus outbreak has moved almost [Continued…]
Explaining Fed Repos - John Mousseau
In the News...
Wall Street’s pros fess up: ‘We don’t know what’s going on’
Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 03/08/2020 
read more 
Yes, Bonds Could Still Rally, Even With Yields Below 1%
Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 03/06/2020 read more
Bloomberg Markets: Cumberland’s Kotok Finds the Fed’s Emergency Rate Cut Worrisome
Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 03/04/2020 read more
Amid Steep Declines in Stocks, Investors Seek Winners in Health Care
Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 02/29/2020 read more
As stock markets tumble because of coronavirus, this time feels different
Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 02/28/2020 read more
U.S. markets drop into correction territory, extending brutal week of losses
Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 02/27/2020 read more
Buy Quality Assets on Dip, Not Junk: Cumberland’s Kotok (Radio-Podcast)
Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 02/27/2020 read more
How the coronavirus could spark a severe slowdown or recession in America
Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 02/26/2020 read more
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