Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Nov 12, 2018 - Nov 16, 2018)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

MATT MCALEER'S WEEKLY RECAP

Taking a look at Global Markets. "Embrace the Grind!" The day to day has had some whip to it. What prices looked good? Where did we put cash to work? How about energy? We have an update for you about International and Emerging Markets. WATCH HERE.

MARKET COMMENTARY

• BREXIT Breakthrough Followed by Threat of Breakdown

  William Witherell, Ph.D. 11/16/2018

• The Failing Trump Navarro Trade War

  David R. Kotok 11/15/2018

• Leveraged ETFs

  Leo Chen, Ph.D. 11/14/2018

• California, Land of Natural Disasters?

  Patricia Healy, CFA11/13/2018

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FEATURED VIDEO

David Kotok shares the latest on Trump, the Trade War with China, & Trade Relations.

The video is available here.

IN THE NEWS

• • Barron's - The California Wildfires’ Financial Toll

    Quoted: Patricia Healy, CFA 11/16/2018

• • MarketWatch - Brexit turmoil: Here’s what’s at stake if U.K.’s May faces a leadership challenge
    Quoted: Bill Witherell, Ph.D. 11/16/2018

• The Bond Buyer - Puerto Rico Oversight Board, Rosselló tussle over Christmas bonus
  Quoted: Shaun Burgess 11/15/2018

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

• • Mexico and Trade

    Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. 2/07/2017

    With Trump, Trade, China, BREXIT, and NAFTA in the headlines, we revisit this commentary from Feb 2017. The state of US trade with Mexico is on the front page as policy makers attempt to stem the outflow of firms, jobs, and goods production from the United States. To put the issues in perspective, it is first helpful to have some facts on US trade in general and trade with Mexico in particular. By comparison with many countries, the US economy is still dominated by domestic production and consumption. In the euro area, for example, trade amounts to about 69% of GDP, and in the UK it is about 38%. In the US economy, by contrast, exports amounts to less than 16% of GDP, and imports are only about 12.5% as of yearend 2015. Our trade deficit in goods and services is slightly less than 3% of GDP in total, down from a peak in 2005 of slightly more than 5%. Continued...

• Bursting Bitcoin Bubble?

  David R. Kotok 7/06/2018

  We have been asked again about Bitcoin and “bubbles” following the recent gyrations and the plunge. “Should I buy it?” asked a reader. First, we offer the required disclosure: We don’t own any cryptocurrency in any Cumberland managed account. And we don’t own any derivative or other form of crypto. We have avoided the group. We don’t see crypto as a deep-enough and mature-enough assemblage of tokens to qualify as an asset class – yet. That assessment may change at some point but not likely soon. Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe have been tracking Bitcoin for a while. They write about it from time to time. “We’ve been tracking Bitcoin wallet growth and Google search term volumes… as the carnage has unfolded. Our repeated message in these pages: the former is growing only slowly, and the latter is in outright decline. Bitcoin is ultimately a technology, and without incremental adoption growth it has a tough row to hoe.” Later in their research they add the following warning: “To be clear: we’re not calling a bottom on Bitcoin, but its complete decoupling from stocks may be one sign of a washout [s]ince it now resembles the time before anyone but computer nerds really cared about it.” Continued...