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Readers Respond to Shutdown Politics

David R. Kotok
Tue Oct 10, 2023

Reader response to our Oct. 1 "Shutdown Averted: Political Dysfunction Confirmed" commentary was voluminous, varied, and vehement. Here are some of those responses.

 
 


Kent wrote:
 
It shocks me how much the Federal Government is involved in my everyday life. Quite sad.
 
I've read where our fiscal deficit is currently about 1.6 trillion, I have also read that we are sending Ukraine about $222 million per day. How long can this go on? Or is the bond market telling us they can go on much longer?
 
Truly pathetic situation and I thank the good Lord I don't want my personal finances the same way.
 
Thank you.
 


 
Dave offered:
 
I’ve been reading a lot of apocalyptic analysis (Neil Howe’s latest, Jon Ward’s latest, etc. etc.) and am becoming convinced America’s path is going to go through a violent window, largely through places and approaches like what you attached here, David.
 
Another recommended read: https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/white-nationalist-active-clubs-1234835015/
 
My son (19, in Cleveland) reports the MMA/White-Power/Gymrat connections are everywhere.
 



Harry said:
 
Relief rally from last night is dragged down from higher bond yields. 
 
Kicking the can down the road doesn’t help yields as the bond market still needs to deal with inflation and treasury financing demands even if the FED is nearly done.
 



Vincenzo wrote from Italy:
 
I would not be so negative about US politics, except the inclination for war. In relative terms, the US has never towered so much against Europe or any other part of the world in any sector. But the attitude toward war is terrible and contrary to GIC (Global Interdependence Center) principles, although many GIC members seem to think differently.
 



Leonard noted:
 
Did you happen to note that the stopgap bill runs until right before Thanksgiving, just enough to disrupt the travel plans of millions for the holiday if they do the same amount of brinksmanship that they did this time?
 



David said:
 
Funny how easy it is to try to be even handed and it always comes out to the comparison between the Freedom Caucus and the evil Progressives.  The difference is really night and day, at least to me.  The Freedom Caucus wants to stop the works, lay off half the government, stop food stamps and cut health care but not touch revenues, even defund the FBI and the IRS.  The Progressive Caucus is well meaning, they want to help people less fortunate.  If I were to choose one or the other, I think I'll stick with the Progressives.  When it came to getting real things done, they easily caved and went along with a half a loaf.
 



Frank had an idea:
 
It will be interesting to see how things sort out if the current Speaker is voted out, which I doubt, but should the R's try to elect another speaker, the Dems will outvote them every time.  So we may never get anything else done. I sent a note to our Representative Jayapal suggesting that a bill be introduced stating that if appropriations bills cannot be passed when due, that the spending plan be automatically extended until a new set of bills will be passed, and that all spending will continue on current levels except that elected members of both the legislative and executive branches of government will forfeit their salaries and expenses until the new bills are passed and that they will not be able to recover them.
 
Ah yes, slim and none are the two chances for that.  Thank you again, Dizzy Dean, for those words.
 



Fred contributed this:
 
(This is an excerpt from his remarks. The full text is available in PDF form here.)
 
On October 2, the start of the "Gaetz insurrection," US corporate spreads rose 26 bps ($130 billion/annum of reduced equity cash flows).  On 10/3, the index rose 36 bps (bringing the 2-day impact to $310 billion/annum). On 10/4, spreads rose another 23 bps ($115 billion/annum).  That puts the 3-day senseless reduction of cash flows to support owners of US equities to $425 billion per year. [See the "Appendix of Charts and Explanations" in the PDF.]
 
Since fear of this lunacy began to sink into US stock markets (September 1), the S&P 500 stock index has fallen 6.9%, with more than 95% of that decline arising after September 14, as Gaetz's threat to cause needless chaos in the GOP-led House of Representatives became clear. 
 
The actions of this maniac are worse than treason.  Like we are seeing with the January 6, 2021, insurrection, treason can be demonstrated rationally and punished. What Gaetz is doing is utterly stupid. He's causing fear among creditors and has actually told people he prefers causing a depression to taking the steps that intelligent leaders in government know the US must take.
 
The problem is not spending or debt levels. It is Gaetz's apparent desire to avoid steps that demonstrate continuing US responsibility to pay debt that causes this fear.  
 



Peter warned:
 
I think that the failure to provide financing for the war in Europe, the Russian invasion and war against Ukraine, will have immediate and profound consequences. Likely, it will be read for what it is – as a weakness – not only bolstering Putin and his allies but also those he is trying to bully around the globe. It is also a signal to NATO members and other nations supporting Ukraine that US support isn't reliable, not even until the next election (which many assumed).

 

David R. Kotok
Co-Founder & Chief Investment Officer
Email | Bio

 

 

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