Insights
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.
Author(s): John R. Mousseau, CFA | Fri August 4, 2023
Fitch Ratings downgraded the US government’s credit rating on August 1st. Fitch took the rating down to AA+, one notch from the previous AAA rating. We believe this is a combination of Fitch’s view of the large US government deficit and the standoff between President Biden and House Republicans…
Author(s): David R. Kotok | Tue August 1, 2023
We’re headed to Maine for the 33rd year of visiting the St. Croix River Valley and, specifically, the Village of Grand Lake Stream, ME. (https://grandlakestream.org) The village itself has about a 100 year-round population. It has one store. No traffic lights.
Author(s): David R. Kotok | Sun July 30, 2023
Kotok prefatory note: This 20-minute read (4700 words plus charts) is an exploration of the cost of the debt ceiling crisis. We expect that there will be serious academic work on this subject within a year or two, just as occurred after the 2011 debt ceiling crisis. Please consider all…
Author(s): John R. Mousseau, CFA | Fri July 21, 2023
This is a brief overview of Cumberland Advisors’ thoughts on the second half of 2023 and a look back at the first half of this year. As we mentioned in January, one of our basic investment tenets is that markets revert to the mean over periods of time.
Author(s): David R. Kotok | Sun July 16, 2023
The editorial note inserted in last Sunday’s piece (“Texas, Heat, Malaria, Mosquitoes”) triggered some questions that focused on the Sahara dust cloud.
Author(s): David R. Kotok | Tue July 11, 2023
Where does responsibility for the banking crisis of spring 2023 lie? What missteps did now-failed banks make? What did the Fed get right? What did it get wrong? How has the banking crisis impacted costs? Lending? Businesses? Community banks? Can community banks recover? Will we see more…
Author(s): Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. | Mon July 10, 2023
The minutes from the most recent June 2023 FOMC meeting have been released. They contained the expected recitation of the Committee’s commitment to fighting inflation, and routine discussion of participants’ views about the economy, employment, and the risks to the outlook.
Author(s): David R. Kotok | Sun July 9, 2023
We thank readers for their comments on our Sunday, June 25, discussion entitled “Frank F. and Frank M. & Others Respond” (https://www.cumber.com/market-commentary/frank-f-and-frank-m-others-respond). Reader comments add insights, pose interesting questions, and sometimes invite a discussion or…
Author(s): Patricia M. Healy, CFA | Fri July 7, 2023
The head of ESG at a major European bank noted that the ESG industry had “matured” – meaning the industry had concluded that, for example, a wholesale exit from investing in carbon-producing entities would have unintended and negative consequences, such as the selling of carbon assets to bad actors…
Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D. | Thu July 6, 2023
At the risk of mixing metaphors, we continue to wait for Godot’s other shoe to drop. Whether it is the long-anticipated recession, more bank failures (or something else in the financial system breaking as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy), a return to the stock market lows of last…