The suggestion in last week’s FOMC minutes that a slight recession was a possibility later this year was widely publicized. The suggestion was initially reported as the FOMC’s view, but it was quickly corrected as having been contained in the staff’s forecast presented to the Committee.

I want to follow up on my Sunday, March 19, morning missive, sent at the beginning of the current banking crisis (“50 Years & More of Bank Failures + SVB,” https://www.cumber.com/market-commentar

Publishing Date: Apr 15, 2023

The year started off calmly, although the Ukraine invasion and other escalating conflicts, plus the knock-on risks of supply chain issues, have not abated.

Every financial crisis seems to trigger anxiety in the investment community and this one is no different. Some of the questions we're hearing from readers and in the financial press we list below in a few categories.

The Kansas City Fed published a worthwhile research note on March 31. Hat tip to Torsten Slok for calling it out.

“Across the lifespan, and across every demographic group, Americans die at younger ages than their counterparts in other wealthy nations.”

Treasury yields continued to be extremely volatile during the first quarter as banking issues sent shockwaves through the market, signaling a slowdown in the Fed’s hiking cycle. The net result of interest rate movements during the first quarter was lower yields across most of the curve.

On July 21, 2011, we penned a commentary titled “Can the Fed Make a Profit for the Taxpayer?” (https://www.cumber.com/market-commentary/can-fed-make-profit-taxpayer July 21, 2011).

The bond market saw the US Treasury close the quarter with unprecedented volatility, spurred by the banking crises that began on March 9th, which saw the FDIC take over both Silicon Valley Bank and the Signature Bank of New York.