The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.
These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.
CUMBERLAND ADVISORS' WEEKLY RECAP
As part of Cumberland Advisors' continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week's short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.
Dear Clients & Friends,
Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer and John Mousseau, CFA.
Matt McAleer on ETFs & Equities
-I have a chart to share with you
-NASDAQ, QQQ, Qs!
-Weeks of backing and filling before this move higher
-Don't get distracted and off-course. What really determines price in equities is supply and demand
-Demand for high-quality, high-growth, large-cap names is very solid right now
-The amount of liquidity in the environment right now has been looking for a home
-Sometimes that liquidity finds a home in an area that can pay you two, two 1/2% in dividend yield vs. a ten year at 60-65 basis points. This makes things very attractive on the equity side.
-One thing we know: there will be volatility, ups, downs, rips higher & dips lower
-If value can help out growth, that's very solid breath in the market
John Mousseau's Update on the Fixed Income Market
-We discuss jobless claims
-Good news? Overall level of virus infections dropping
-Existing home sales up 22% based upon
(1) Low mortgage rates
(2) Movement out of cities
(3) Low supply
-Next week we'll look at durable goods and employment claims again
-How will taxes/municipals be positioned after the elections?
Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch this week's video in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/NSQ4xtkd4RI
Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.
-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors
Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt's Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt's Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013
Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.
Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/
IN THE NEWS
CNN – Wall Street’s worst nightmare isn’t Trump or Biden. It’s no clear winner at all
Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 08/20/2020
read more
Inflation TIPS: Living On The Hedge
Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA | Posted on: 08/15/2020
read more
WaPo – In a bleak economy, these companies are flourishing
Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 08/15/2020
read more
Camp Kotok: Maine Woods, Economists & Wine
Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 08/08/2020
read more
Highlands News Sun – COVID-19: Florida vs. Taiwan
Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 08/08/2020
read more
Barron’s – July Jobs Report: Better Than Expected, Better Than Feared
Quoted: William Witherell, Ph.D. | Posted on: 08/07/2020
read more
The U.S. election is getting ugly – and investors are getting nervous
Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 07/31/2020
read more
Favor Asia Economies That Are Managing Pandemic: Kotok (Radio)
Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 07/30/2020
read more
BondBuyer – Largest municipal bond deals coming from Texas, Colo. and Calif.
Quoted: Shaun Burgess | Posted on: 07/24/2020
read more
TREASURIES-Yields fall ahead of TIPS auction
Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA | Posted on: 07/23/2020
read more
BondBuyer – Confidence high among muni investors
Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA | Posted on: 07/16/2020
read more

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.
To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/
Japan’s Economy, Stocks, and Corporate Governance
Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: August 20, 2020
The Japanese economy, the globe’s third largest (following those of the US and China), shrank by a record 7.8% in the second quarter. This decline was less than the 9.5% fall in the US economy and the 10.1% drop in the German economy. However, it was more than double neighboring South Korea’s 3.3% drop. Taiwan’s […]
Inflation?
Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: August 19, 2020
During an August 14, 2020, lecture at the Center for Financial Stability, Charles Goodhart (former member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee and professor at the London School of Economics) mused about the US’s current economic slowdown and the prospects for inflation that might result because of the extraordinary increase in the money […]
Diverse Political Views & Markets
Author: , Post Date: August 17, 2020
The US presidential race may be tighter than many think. Let’s survey diverse perspectives on the race, its issues, and its market implications, starting with Nate Silver’s August 16 analysis at FiveThirtyEight. 1. Nate Silver explains his thesis, that a Trump win cannot be counted out: “While the polls have been stable so far this […]
Sunday Report: Gainesville Party Responses
Author: , Post Date: August 16, 2020
On July 29, I posed questions to readers in a commentary titled “US Stock Market Sectors and Gainesville, Florida,” https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-us-stock-market-sectors-gainesville-florida/. News had just broken about University of Florida Health anesthesiology residents and one fellow who had contracted COVID-19 infections at an off-campus party (“18 in UF Health anesthesiology contract virus after party,” https://www.gainesville.com/news/20200727/18-in-uf-health-anesthesiology-contract-virus-after-party). I asked, “Should the school […]
Zika & COVID-19: We Need Action Now!
Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 14, 2020
Dear Readers: This is an appeal to Democrats, Republicans, and Independents, House Members and Senators, and including those on the far right and on the far left of American politics. The nation needs you to set aside the partisan politics. Students, their teachers, businesses, investors, the retired, the unemployed, the charities, state and local governments, […]
Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control, Part 2
Author: , Post Date: August 13, 2020
This is part 2 in a series on interest rates and yield curve controls. Here’s the link to part 1: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-interest-rates-and-yield-curve-control-part-1/ First, we want to thank BCA Research and our friend Caroline Miller, Chief Strategist at BCA, for permission to share their charts. At Cumberland, we use BCA Research. My colleague John Mousseau and I […]
A Quick Look at Job Creation
Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: August 11, 2020
Each month, the BLS produces a wealth of data from both its household survey and its establishment survey. The latter, in particular, gives us a view of where jobs are actually being created during this terrible pandemic. Normally, the data widely cited from these surveys are seasonally adjusted, but for our purposes we will look […]
Managing Hurricane Risk in a Bond Portfolio
Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA & Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: August 10, 2020
The Northeast continues to clean up from Hurricane Isaias, which swept up the Atlantic coast to New York and parts of New England on Thursday. Below is a slide from a presentation by our good friend Tom Doe, who heads up Municipal Market Advisors (http://www.mma-research.com). Tom’s firm does in-depth quantitative and qualitative research on the […]
Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control, Part 1
Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date:
“The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate is an alternative measure of core inflation in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE). It is calculated by staff at the Dallas Fed, using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).” Through June 2020, “The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate over the 12 months ending in […]
Paulding County, Georgia
Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 9, 2020
“All politics is local,” Tip O’Neill famously observed. (In fact, this former Speaker of the House wrote a book by that title.) As the next chapter of COVID-19 and election-year politics take us closer to the November deadline, we believe that the school-opening issue is a new major influence. Scenario 1: Schools are opened with minimal […]
Credit Spreads
Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 6, 2020
We track many spreads at Cumberland and circulate a key summary of them every morning. For this public commentary I extracted the ones you see below (the last 7 items are the key ones to examine) because they help tell the story of how the Fed’s activities have decreased risk pricing in the financial markets. […]
Why Investors Are Looking at Taiwan
Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: August 5, 2020
Consider a place that has had only 476 Covid-19 cases and just 7 deaths. This sounds like a rural town in the US with a small population and good access to medical care. Actually, it is Taiwan, a small country in Asia with a very dense population of 23.6 million people, situated about 100 miles […]
David Kotok talks about the current green shoots of progress with China and Trade Talks
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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.


