Material and commentaries published in the past may or may not be helpful in analyzing current economic or financial market activity. Please note publishing date when reviewing materials.  Please email [email protected] for our current thoughts or to reach an advisor.

 

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Dec 02, 2019 - Dec 06, 2019)

Cumberland Advisors
Fri Jan 2, 1970

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS' WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors' continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week's short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.


 

Employment report out today. Nice surprise!

This week, we talk about:

-Bonds, inflation, and the yield curve
-Do we see a buying opportunity?
-Equities - Growth, Value, and some comparisons
-When the market starts to rally, money's chasing growth
-The Employment Report
-Lingering Trade War effects?

Watch in the video player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/eYiWAn4Bzik

Have a great weekend and thank you for joining us at Cumberland Advisors.

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt's Email: [email protected]
-Link to Matt's Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Or email us at [email protected] or give us a call at (800) 257-7013




David R. Kotok offers this ongoing series of “Year-End & 2020 Forecast Notes” for your consideration. More to come!

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Year-End-&-2020-Forecast-Notes

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note #4: Inflation

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 6, 2019

The outlook for inflation and for inflation-sensitive financial instruments is still highly uncertain. Note that this prognosis includes TIPS on the bond side and certain inflation-sensitive stock groups on the equity side. The world’s mature economies have been trying to get inflation up to 2% or higher for many years. They’ve had no success. An [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note #3: Potential Volatility Driven by US Politics

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 5, 2019

US politics will be a closely watched, bubbling pot in 2020, and the media will boil over every news item. That said, it is Super Tuesday (March 3) which becomes the key date for Democrats. Republican challengers to Trump seem to be non-starters as best as we can determine. Perhaps the New Hampshire or Massachusetts [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note #2: A Vulnerable Trajectory for Stock Prices

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 4, 2019

In addition to Trade War uncertainty, US stock markets must grapple with problematic earnings estimates for 2020. Typical year-start estimates are higher than actual outcomes, as a bias toward optimism appears around the year-end holiday time. A good example is 2019, when year-start estimates for the S&P 500 were in the $174–178 range. The actual [Continued…]


The MoneyShow Orlando 2020


John Mousseau at the Money Show Orlando

John R. Mousseau, CFA, will be joining a large gathering of members of Wall Street's financial community in Orlando this winter season for The MoneyShow Orlando 2020. The three days of the conference will focus on new investment ideas that address the current economic and geopolitical environment and will feature tools, strategies, and advice which may help you better position your portfolio.

John will be a featured speaker, giving a review of the bond market in the past year (2019) and what we should expect from the bond market in a presidential election year.

To join John in February 2020 or learn more, please visit: https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-orlando/


Bloomberg Surveillance: Negative Interest Rates with Kotok (Radio Podcast)

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 27, 2019

Cumberland Advisors’ David R. Kotok talks about negative interest rates, NIRP, and says the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Christine Lagarde has a difficult task right now.

Cumberland's David Kotok on Bloomberg Radio

He also discusses China, the pork shortage, and the impact of viruses on the global food supply.

Running time 25:02, David is introduced at the 10:45 mark – Play Episode: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2019-11-27/surveillance-negative-interest-rates-with-kotok-podcast

Also see David’s Nov 25, 2019 commentary on NIRP: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-nirp-lagarde-trump-dickens-holidays/


Collecting toys for the girls and boys! Sarasota County Sheriff’s Office is hosting its third annual holiday toy drive benefiting the 12th Judicial Circuit of Florida’s Guardian ad Litem program and we're participating at our Sarasota, FL office. Info here: https://bit.ly/2OO8f2I
Pictured in our photo are Cumberland Advisors' Patricia Healy & Todd Engelhardt with our first round of toys. Thank you to all supporters!
Closer to our Vineland, NJ office? Cumberland County Technical Education Center’s Interact Club has partnered with the Vineland Salvation Army for its eighth annual Holiday Toy Drive. More info: https://bit.ly/2qkd7TS
Thanks to everyone that participates in community service projects, you make the world a better place!!!

In Case You Missed It...

Reflections on Mumbai and What It Might Mean

Author: Bob Eisenbeis, Post Date: December 4, 2008

Several years ago I had an occasion to go on a mission for the IMF to the Central Bank of India, headquartered in Mumbai. It was the second week of December, so it was past the rainy season and the weather was warm, with temperatures in the high 80s and low 90s. That India is the scene of so many incidents of unrest and violence should not be surprising. The wide disparity of income plus the long history of the caste system and discrimination against various ethnic and religious groups is a hard legacy to shake. Poverty hits you even as you land at the airport in Mumbai. At the end of the runway were many acres of tents made out of black plastic garbage bags, which were homes to many. It hits you again on the drive into the city from the airport. A similar sight awaits you in downtown Mumbai from the Central Bank of India, which overlooked a similar several-acre tent city.

Because it was the dry season, work had begun on road repairs. Instead of dump trucks, however, I saw on the way in from the airport many women dressed in colorful saris, each with a basket of dirt on her head, performing the dump trucks’ tasks. [Continued...]


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