IN THE NEWS
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Quoted:Patricia Healy, CFA - 12/06/2019
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Media - Press Coverage for the Fourth Annual Financial Literacy Day: Understanding Global Markets and Finance Event at USF Sarasota-ManateeQuoted:Cumberland Advisors - 12/05/2019
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Quoted:David R. Kotok - 12/05/2019
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Business Observer & Sarasota Magazine - Cumberland Advisors Names Todd Engelhardt Regional Director of InvestmentsQuoted:Todd Engelhardt - 12/05/2019
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Quoted:David R. Kotok - 12/03/2019
Market Commentary
David R. Kotok offers this ongoing series of “Year-End & 2020 Forecast Notes” for your consideration. More to come!
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note #4: Inflation
Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 6, 2019
The outlook for inflation and for inflation-sensitive financial instruments is still highly uncertain. Note that this prognosis includes TIPS on the bond side and certain inflation-sensitive stock groups on the equity side. The world’s mature economies have been trying to get inflation up to 2% or higher for many years. They’ve had no success. An [Continued…]
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note #3: Potential Volatility Driven by US Politics
Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 5, 2019
US politics will be a closely watched, bubbling pot in 2020, and the media will boil over every news item. That said, it is Super Tuesday (March 3) which becomes the key date for Democrats. Republican challengers to Trump seem to be non-starters as best as we can determine. Perhaps the New Hampshire or Massachusetts [Continued…]
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note #2: A Vulnerable Trajectory for Stock Prices
Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 4, 2019
In addition to Trade War uncertainty, US stock markets must grapple with problematic earnings estimates for 2020. Typical year-start estimates are higher than actual outcomes, as a bias toward optimism appears around the year-end holiday time. A good example is 2019, when year-start estimates for the S&P 500 were in the $174–178 range. The actual [Continued…]
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note #1: US–China Trade War
Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 3, 2019
In our opinion, investors should not be deceived by any promise of a definitive Trump Trade War settlement. It isn’t in the cards. The best outcome is a truce, and even that will be more like a ceasefire. As of this writing, U.S.-China tariff talks continue, and a phase one trade deal is still expected [Continued…]