Mon Dec 16, 2019
The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.
These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.
CUMBERLAND ADVISORS' WEEKLY RECAP
As part of Cumberland Advisors' continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week's short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.
This week, we talk about how we trade news and noise.
After 3 years of BREXIT worry and 18 months of China negotiations, we've got a little resolution. However...
-We don't trade BREXIT
-We don't trade GDP
-We don't trade economic numbers
-We trade securities - Matt explains
We look at charts, SPY, our cash levels, sectors showing good relative strength vs SPY, International, Bonds (Fixed Income) and more.
So, how do we trade news and noise? We have to look at, not what the news is, but how the market trades on that news.
Watch in the video player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/ZVKXUHbwSYE
Have a great weekend and thank you for joining us at Cumberland Advisors.
-Matt McAleer
Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt's Email: [email protected]
-Link to Matt's Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013
Other questions or comments? Email us at [email protected] or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.
IN THE NEWS
Healthcare & Energy Assets Poised to Outperform: (Bloomberg Radio Podcast)
Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 12/11/2019
The Bond Buyer - State credits stable in 2020 outlook
Quoted:Patricia Healy, CFA - 12/06/2019
Media - Press Coverage for the Fourth Annual Financial Literacy Day: Understanding Global Markets and Finance Event at USF Sarasota-Manatee
Quoted:Cumberland Advisors - 12/05/2019
Barron's - Are Trump’s New Trade Threats Just the Art of the Deal? Analysts See Reason to Worry
Quoted:David R. Kotok - 12/05/2019
Business Observer & Sarasota Magazine - Cumberland Advisors Names Todd Engelhardt Regional Director of Investments
Quoted:Todd Engelhardt - 12/05/2019
CNN Business - Tariff Man keeps coming back because trade wars aren’t easy to win
Quoted:David R. Kotok - 12/03/2019
Cumberland Advisors Chairman David Kotok discusses London businesses and markets amid Brexit tensions. He also discusses China and how global markets and trade have changed.
MARKET COMMENTARY
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David R. Kotok offers this ongoing series of “Year-End & 2020 Forecast Notes” for your consideration.
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note #6: Jobs & Wages
Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 13, 2019
Markets greeted the most recent monthly employment report with a rousing cheer and a robust and broadening stock market rally; bonds reacted to an improved outlook based on this report; and interest rates rose while the futures market of the short-term policy rate (fed funds) adjusted to a lower likelihood of a rate cutting sequence [Continued…]
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note #5: Energy
Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 11, 2019
The worst-performing US stock market sector in 2019 is energy. In retrospect, we regret that we held a position in it. Our rationale failed so far and the timing was clearly poor. But we did hold energy and we do still do. Our focus has been on domestic US energy because we believed it is [Continued…]
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note #4: Inflation
Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 6, 2019
The outlook for inflation and for inflation-sensitive financial instruments is still highly uncertain. Note that this prognosis includes TIPS on the bond side and certain inflation-sensitive stock groups on the equity side. The world’s mature economies have been trying to get inflation up to 2% or higher for many years. They’ve had no success. An [Continued…]
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note #3: Potential Volatility Driven by US Politics
Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 5, 2019
US politics will be a closely watched, bubbling pot in 2020, and the media will boil over every news item. That said, it is Super Tuesday (March 3) which becomes the key date for Democrats. Republican challengers to Trump seem to be non-starters as best as we can determine. Perhaps the New Hampshire or Massachusetts [Continued…]
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note #2: A Vulnerable Trajectory for Stock Prices
Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 4, 2019
In addition to Trade War uncertainty, US stock markets must grapple with problematic earnings estimates for 2020. Typical year-start estimates are higher than actual outcomes, as a bias toward optimism appears around the year-end holiday time. A good example is 2019, when year-start estimates for the S&P 500 were in the $174–178 range. The actual [Continued…]
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note #1: US–China Trade War
Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 3, 2019
In our opinion, investors should not be deceived by any promise of a definitive Trump Trade War settlement. It isn’t in the cards. The best outcome is a truce, and even that will be more like a ceasefire. As of this writing, U.S.-China tariff talks continue, and a phase one trade deal is still expected [Continued…]
The MoneyShow Orlando 2020
John R. Mousseau, CFA, will be joining a large gathering of members of Wall Street's financial community in Orlando this winter season for The MoneyShow Orlando 2020. The three days of the conference will focus on new investment ideas that address the current economic and geopolitical environment and will feature tools, strategies, and advice which may help you better position your portfolio.
John will be a featured speaker, giving a review of the bond market in the past year (2019) and what we should expect from the bond market in a presidential election year.
To join John in February 2020 or learn more, please visit: https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-orlando/
Cumberland Advisors Chairman David Kotok discusses London businesses and markets amid Brexit tensions. He also discusses China and how global markets and trade have changed.
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Collecting toys for girls & boys!