Ceasefire:  An agreement to temporarily stop shooting while trying to reach a truce

Truce:  A more durable cessation of shooting while antagonists attempt to reconcile differences and reach a peace treaty

The second quarter of 2019 has been a busy one for the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico. Milestones mired in controversy, optimism dampened by frustration, and increasing uncertainty have all been part of the experience.

Since the ’08-’09 financial crisis, it has been astounding to watch as investment pours into Florida's Sarasota-Manatee region. Construction cranes dot the skyline, new housing developments expand beyond the interstate while regional unemployment remains at historic lows.

The muni bond market has been on a tear so far this year. Not only have yields dropped, but they have dropped relative to US Treasuries across the board.

Peter Boockvar, a Camp K fisherman and a super-sharp analyst, sent the note and chart below. We thank him for giving us permission to share his note below.

Treasury yields dropped precipitously throughout the second quarter of 2019, with the biggest decline seen in the short to intermediate maturities. As of 6/20/19 the most sizable decline was in the 2-year Treasury, which dropped 54 bps to 1.724%, while the 30-year Treasury lagged this drop in…

In the commentary leading up to the June meeting, I argued that some relaxation of the tariff issues with Mexico, combined with relatively good data for the US economy, would make the FOMC’s decision to hold pat on rates relatively easier.

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be…

In the next-to-last week of the second quarter, the factors that have led to high volatility in the global equity markets during the quarter are still present. Foremost among these are the destabilizing effects of rising trade and technology tensions, which are hurting the manufacturing sectors…

The US stock market experienced some rising volatility caused by the tariff war during the second quarter of 2019. While the S&P 500 didn’t drop by double digits in May, the volatility index, VIX, briefly touched above 20 last month. As a general rule of thumb, investors can expect a 10%…