Material and commentaries published in the past may or may not be helpful in analyzing current economic or financial market activity. Please note publishing date when reviewing materials.  Please email [email protected] for our current thoughts or to reach an advisor.

 

Market Commentary

Insights

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

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  • Thucydides--Part 3
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Wed May 16, 2018



    In book five of The History of the Peloponnesian War, Thucydides describes how the Athenians sustained surprisingly large losses in battle and how the Spartans prevailed. He also describes what each side didn’t know about the condition of the other side. Problems arise when decisions are based…


  • Illinois Unpaid Bill Backlog
     Author(s): Patricia Healy, CFA | Tue May 15, 2018



    We do not invest in direct general-obligation bonds of the State of Illinois. At Cumberland we feel the state is plagued by political gridlock, an inflexible state constitution, a severely underfunded pension plan, and slow growth. In order for the state to avoid dealing with its issues when it…


  • Japan’s Domestic Political Turmoil versus Stocks
     Author(s): Bill Witherell, Ph.D. | Sat May 12, 2018



    So far this year, the US equity market has not been affected significantly by the high level of domestic political discord. The volatility we have seen in US equities appears to have been driven largely by concerns about rising interest rates and external factors such as trade war fears. US…


  • John McCain & Return of Prisoners
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Thu May 10, 2018



    The morning email (today) from my friend Dennis Gartman really struck home with me. Dennis and I have a standing agreement to grant each other permission to quote each other. So here is what I read in Dennis’ morning missive:


  • Fed, Fishing, Labor Data
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Wed May 9, 2018



    We thank readers for comments on our Sunday morning piece about the Fed and the risk of policy mistakes. For those who missed it, the link is here: http://www.cumber.com/fed-employment-mistake-or-correct-munis/. For those who missed my colleague Bob Eisenbeis’s piece on Fed policy, here’s the…


  • Fed, Employment, Mistake or Correct? Munis?
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Mon May 7, 2018



    Albert Einstein was, it turns out, apparently not the person who defined insanity as “doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result” (see https://quoteinvestigator.com/2017/03/23/same/); but it’s a good definition just the same.

    The definition certainly applies…


  • May FOMC Decision
     Author(s): Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. | Sat May 5, 2018



    To no one’s surprise, the FOMC left its target range for the federal funds rate constant at 1.5 to 1.75%. This decision maintains the Committee’s record of no rate hikes at meetings where no SEP forecasts were available and also spaces out its gradual normalization of policy. There is virtually…


  • Thucydides--Part 2
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Thu May 3, 2018



    Many thanks to readers for comments about our “Thucydides – Part 1.” For those who missed it the link is http://www.cumber.com/thucydides-part-1/.

    In this part 2 we must first offer an apology to Professor Graham Allison. An astute reader caught a typo on a third occurrence of his first…


  • Thucydides--Part 1
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Sun April 29, 2018



    “Let China sleep; when she wakes, she will shake the world.” – Napoleon, 1817 (citation source: Graham Allison)


  • Global Economy Strengthening with Upside and Downside Risks Broadly Balanced
     Author(s): Bill Witherell, Ph.D. | Sat April 28, 2018



    Last week the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank brought together in Washington the world’s finance ministers, central bankers, financial experts and economists, other government officials, and invited representatives from the private sector, academia,…


 

 

"The mind is not a vessel to be filled but a fire to be kindled."

Plutarch