Material and commentaries published in the past may or may not be helpful in analyzing current economic or financial market activity. Please note publishing date when reviewing materials.  Please email [email protected] for our current thoughts or to reach an advisor.

 

Market Commentary

Insights

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

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  • John McCain & Return of Prisoners
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Thu May 10, 2018



    The morning email (today) from my friend Dennis Gartman really struck home with me. Dennis and I have a standing agreement to grant each other permission to quote each other. So here is what I read in Dennis’ morning missive:


  • Fed, Fishing, Labor Data
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Wed May 9, 2018



    We thank readers for comments on our Sunday morning piece about the Fed and the risk of policy mistakes. For those who missed it, the link is here: http://www.cumber.com/fed-employment-mistake-or-correct-munis/. For those who missed my colleague Bob Eisenbeis’s piece on Fed policy, here’s the…


  • Fed, Employment, Mistake or Correct? Munis?
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Mon May 7, 2018



    Albert Einstein was, it turns out, apparently not the person who defined insanity as “doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result” (see https://quoteinvestigator.com/2017/03/23/same/); but it’s a good definition just the same.

    The definition certainly applies…


  • May FOMC Decision
     Author(s): Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. | Sat May 5, 2018



    To no one’s surprise, the FOMC left its target range for the federal funds rate constant at 1.5 to 1.75%. This decision maintains the Committee’s record of no rate hikes at meetings where no SEP forecasts were available and also spaces out its gradual normalization of policy. There is virtually…


  • Thucydides--Part 2
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Thu May 3, 2018



    Many thanks to readers for comments about our “Thucydides – Part 1.” For those who missed it the link is http://www.cumber.com/thucydides-part-1/.

    In this part 2 we must first offer an apology to Professor Graham Allison. An astute reader caught a typo on a third occurrence of his first…


  • Thucydides--Part 1
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Sun April 29, 2018



    “Let China sleep; when she wakes, she will shake the world.” – Napoleon, 1817 (citation source: Graham Allison)


  • Global Economy Strengthening with Upside and Downside Risks Broadly Balanced
     Author(s): Bill Witherell, Ph.D. | Sat April 28, 2018



    Last week the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank brought together in Washington the world’s finance ministers, central bankers, financial experts and economists, other government officials, and invited representatives from the private sector, academia,…


  • Marcus Island
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Tue April 24, 2018



    An isolated Pacific island barely big enough to accommodate an airstrip has gained global importance (see photo: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Marcus_Island_DF-ST-87-08298.JPEG).


  • Global Dialogue & Exchange of Divergent Perspectives: The Rocky Mountain Economic Summit
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Fri April 20, 2018



    Leo Chen, Ph.D., Portfolio Manager & Quantitative Strategist for Cumberland Advisors, will join me to speak on July 12th for an annual gathering of economists, bankers, academics, and finance industry representatives known as the Rocky Mountain Economic Summit. If you missed Dr.


  • Some Thoughts About The Stock Market
     Author(s): | Tue April 17, 2018



    We thought we would list a few things for readers to think about when contemplating the US stock market.

    1. The first is a brilliant research observation from Morgan Stanley’s Andrew Sheets, who writes from London:

    “The result can materially boost the income a USD investor receives…


 

 

"The mind is not a vessel to be filled but a fire to be kindled."

Plutarch