Material and commentaries published in the past may or may not be helpful in analyzing current economic or financial market activity. Please note publishing date when reviewing materials.  Please email [email protected] for our current thoughts or to reach an advisor.

 

Market Commentary

Insights

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

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  • VIX Inversion
     Author(s): Leo Chen, Ph.D. | Wed October 10, 2018



    VIX, the “fear gauge,” measures S&P 500 near-term volatility by using options that expire in 23–37 days. Therefore, the VIX we often discuss is the 1-month volatility index. However, the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) also publishes 3-month (VIX3M) and 6-month (VIX6M) volatility…


  • Another Italian Drama – Why It Matters
     Author(s): William Witherell, Ph.D. | Thu October 4, 2018



    Government deficit out of control, irresponsible government policies, tumbling bond prices and bank share prices, threat of rating-agency downgrades, political instability – we have seen similar Italian dramas in the past that, in the end, did not lead to serious financial market contagion.…


  • Puerto Rico – Third Quarter 2018 Review
     Author(s): Shaun Burgess | Wed October 3, 2018



    As the third quarter comes to a close, a fragile sense of optimism for the future of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico has blossomed. It has arisen not just from the resolve of its people in the wake of Hurricane Maria but also from important milestones that have been reached in the long…


  • Taxable Total Return 3rd Quarter Review
     Author(s): Daniel Himelberger | Tue October 2, 2018



    Treasury yields went up across the curve throughout the third quarter of 2018. Once again the rate move was led by the front end of the yield curve, with Treasury bills and notes out to three years experiencing the largest increase in yield.


  • SCOTUS
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Tue October 2, 2018



    Readers are invited to check out the background of this case scheduled for SCOTUS at the end of this month: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gamble_v._United_States. Here is the Wikipedia summary: “Gamble v.


  • FOMC Closes Out Q3 2018
     Author(s): Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. | Sat September 29, 2018



    As Treasury markets had correctly predicted, the FOMC raised its target range for federal funds by 25 basis points to 2.0%–2.25% at its meeting on Wednesday, Sept. 26.


  • Q3 2018 Municipal Credit Commentary
     Author(s): Patricia Healy, CFA | Sat September 29, 2018



    Updates, budgets, potential future stresses, state ratings, default study, and last but not least, storms


  • Trump Trade War & The Keystone Kops
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Thu September 27, 2018




  • The Tale of Two Ratios: Shorter and Longer
     Author(s): John R. Mousseau, CFA | Thu September 27, 2018



    In a year when we have seen commentators talking about the relative flatness of yield curves, we have a conundrum when we look at the US Treasury yield curve and the US muni yield curve (shown here as the Bloomberg AA general obligation yield curve).


  • Donor-Advised Funds (DAFs): Warehouses of Charitable Dollars or a Democratic Vehicle for Philanthropy?
     Author(s): Gabriel Hament | Wed September 26, 2018



    The long-standing debate surrounding the lightly regulated world of donor-advised funds has been gaining traction on the pages of the Nonprofit Quarterly (NPQ).[1]


 

 

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