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Market Commentary


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

  • Money, Banking, Energy, Economics on February 22
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Thu February 8, 2018

    Economic and financial issues will be thoroughly discussed on February 22 at USF Sarasota-Manatee. The confirmed lineup includes Sara Banaszak of Exxon Mobil, who has expertise in the energy sector. Everything from Puerto Rico Electric Power to offshore drilling to national constraints is on the…

  • Bond Market Hiccup
     Author(s): John R. Mousseau, CFA | Wed February 7, 2018

    The bond markets have experienced a hiccup in the first part of this year, with the 10-year bond rising 45 basis points in yield, to 2.85% from 2.40%, and the 30-year bond rising 37 basis points in yield, to 3.11% from 2.74%. Our feeling is that these yields are rising in one measure to compete…

  • Market Violence & Interest Rates
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Tue February 6, 2018

    Fierce forces at work on interest rates … or are we just seeing a mild adjustment? There is no way to know. We are referring to US Treasury interest rates on bills, notes, and bonds. Some bullets follow.

    1. It is clear that the newly installed leadership of the Federal Reserve want to…

  • Congressional Panel Confirmed for February 22
     Author(s): | Mon February 5, 2018

    We have now confirmed a bipartisan congressional panel for the February 22 “Cuba and the Caribbean: What Now?” event. Florida Congressman Carlos Curbelo, whose district includes the Keys, which bore the direct hurricane hit, is joined by Virgin Islands Congresswoman Stacey Plaskett. The…

  • Inflation and Fed
     Author(s): | Thu February 1, 2018

    Don Rissmiller is a Camp Kotok fishing pal, the new chair of the Global Interdependence Center, and a senior personality at Strategas. He is also one very thoughtful economist.

  • Geography Matters
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Tue January 30, 2018

    Strategas Research has compiled the year-to-date (through January 25) returns of major global equity markets. They point to Hong Kong and Brazil as the leaders, with returns YTD of around 10%. Of the others in the largest 20 markets, only two, Australia and the UK, were slightly negative. For…

  • Trade, Dollar, Trump
     Author(s): | Sat January 27, 2018

    “In the long run we are all dead” was John Maynard Keynes’ famous criticism of economic models. The rest of the quote goes, “Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task, if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us, that when the storm is long past, the ocean is flat again.” We…

  • Report from San Diego
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Fri January 26, 2018

    Dear Readers,

    We had the wonderful opportunity to present the Heldring Award to Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren at the GIC meeting in San Diego, held on Friday, January 12, at the Rady School of Management. This is GIC's second year in San Diego but the first time in partnership with…

  • Potential Fed Vice Chairman
     Author(s): Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. | Mon January 22, 2018

    Reports are that John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, has been targeted as a potential candidate for Fed vice chairman. President Williams is scheduled to vote as one of the five sitting reserve bank presidents on the FOMC in 2018. What would his appointment…

  • US Competitiveness – A Global Comparison
     Author(s): Bill Witherell, Ph.D. | Sun January 21, 2018

    Next week the World Economic Forum (WEF) will host its 48th annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, drawing together a large number of leaders from governments (including President Trump), international organizations, business, academia, and civil society. The title for this year’s meeting is “…



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