Market Commentary

Insights

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

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  • Cumberland Advisors Commentary -Forrest Gump's Advice
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Mon June 15, 2020



    I wish all readers a good Sunday morning. I have to be more sobering today than I have been in recent Sunday missives.

    Below is a quote from POLITICO, issued on Thursday morning, June 11, 2020, at about 8:30 AM.


  • Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Jun 08, 2020 - Jun 12, 2020)
     Author(s): Cumberland Advisors | Sun June 14, 2020



    The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.


  • Human Emotions, Structure of Strategy, and Diversification of Risk
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Thu June 11, 2020



    Below is a 20 year comparison of MDY (the S&P 400 midcap index) and SPY (the S&P 500 largecap index). The 20 year relative performance gap is obvious. Please look carefully at those interim periods when MDY violently outperformed SPY and also look at reversals.


  • Digging Deeper
     Author(s): Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. | Wed June 10, 2020



    On Friday, the Dow bounced over 750 points, reacting to the May employment report. In truth, it seems that participants never read beyond the first sentence, which stated: “Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 2.5 million in May (private sector employment increased 3.1 million while…


  • Where Are Munis Getting Their Money?
     Author(s): Patricia Healy, CFA | Tue June 9, 2020



    Municipalities derive their revenues from many sources. At the state level, sales taxes, personal income taxes, and corporate taxes are the largest sources of revenue; and there are other taxes and fees that states can raise. We’ve all seen them, from gas taxes and fees to gambling and lottery…


  • Cumberland Advisors Commentary - Four Guests
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Mon June 8, 2020



    I remember 1968.

    This is much bigger.

    In other commentaries we will deal with market reactions, economic outlook, and the impacts from the double whammy of rioting nationwide on top of COVID-19.


  • Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Jun 01, 2020 - Jun 05, 2020)
     Author(s): Cumberland Advisors | Sun June 7, 2020



    The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.


  • Liquidity Impact on the Stock Market
     Author(s): Leo Chen, Ph.D. | Sat June 6, 2020



    All three major indices have continued their rallies in June: The S&P 500 is up 2.23%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 3.54%, and the Nasdaq composite is up 1.33%. The S&P 500 has marked a 42% return since the March 23rd low for the large-cap index, while the Nasdaq Composite is…


  • Mexico's Twin Crises: The Pandemic and a Plunging Economy
     Author(s): William Witherell, Ph.D. | Fri June 5, 2020



    South of the border, our neighbor and the second largest economy in Latin America, Mexico, is experiencing a severe and still worsening health crisis due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The dire effects of the illness itself are compounded by a brutal decline in the economy, which at the start of 2020…


  • Inflation, Deflation, and Capacity Utilization – Part 2
     Author(s): Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. | Thu June 4, 2020



    Bloomberg’s Lisa Abramowicz recently tweeted, “When you measure the prices of things Americans are spending money on right now, ‘it turns out that the actual inflation rate is not as low’ as the data suggest” (https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1263868020516151298). Her evidence was a…


 

 

"The mind is not a vessel to be filled but a fire to be kindled."

Plutarch