Market Commentary

Insights

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

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  • Sculpting Fog?
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Fri September 7, 2018



    On Wednesday morning POLITICO’s Morning Money shared this quote from Bob Woodward’s new book, Fear, and opined on Trump’s intentions in the trade arena:

    “I can stop this,” Cohn reportedly said. “I’ll just take the paper off his desk.”


  • Report from Leen’s Lodge
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Wed September 5, 2018



    We start September with a cash reserve in our US equity ETF portfolios. Some details of our thinking follow.

    We wish our readers a Happy Post-Labor Day return to confront the 9-week run-up to the midterms. Other risk items include a possible government shutdown (not likely, in our view)…


  • Guest Commentary by Bob Bunting - It’s Getting Hotter
     Author(s): Bob Bunting | Thu August 30, 2018



    Bob Bunting, a friend, meteorologist, and accomplished professor, has offered his insight on climate change via this guest commentary, It’s Hot and Getting Hotter – The Case for Adaptive Strategies for a Warming Planet. We appreciate his perspective and invite you to join the conversation.


  • Venezuela Implodes, Neighbors Suffer
     Author(s): Bill Witherell, Ph.D. | Wed August 29, 2018



    Last week Venezuela devalued its currency, the bolivar, by 95%, cutting five zeros off the exchange rate. This measure was a desperate response to hyperinflation that reached an astonishing rate of 83,000% YoY in July, with prices doubling every 26 days.


  • It’s in the Stars
     Author(s): Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. | Tue August 28, 2018



    As is the custom for Fed chairs, Chairman Powell provided the kickoff address to the Kansas City Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium, broadly attended by many of the world’s central bankers.


  • Tariffs & Draining the Swamp?
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Wed August 22, 2018



    Mr. David Malpass, at the US Treasury, will meet with Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen in late August. This is excellent news.

    Dennis Gartman beat me to this on Thursday morning. I’m in complete agreement with Dennis’ assessment:


  • CDC Foundation President Dr. Judy Monroe
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Sun August 19, 2018



    “Is there a vaccine now for Zika?” I asked Dr. Judy Monroe, president-CEO of the CDC Foundation. “Not yet, but we’re working on it,” she answered. For a YouTube of my interview with Judy when she visited Camp Kotok, see https://youtu.be/rge2tC74kSc.


  • The Ball Is Rolling
     Author(s): Shaun Burgess | Fri August 17, 2018



    August has brought welcome news for the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and for creditors eager to see a resolution to the bankruptcy process that started more than two years ago with the passage of the Puerto Rico Oversight, Management, and Economic Stability Act (PROMESA).


  • Something Fishy
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Wed August 15, 2018



    Let’s see. An American company with American employees catches fish. It ships the fish to China. China imposes a tariff or retaliatory tariff when the fish arrives from America.


  • Turkey Tumbles, Financial Markets Are Unnerved
     Author(s): Bill Witherell, Ph.D. | Tue August 14, 2018



    The Turkish lira is down more than 40% year to date, with Friday’s fall alone reaching 18.5% at one point and ending down 14.3% for the day. While Turkey’s economy is not large, some major European banks have big exposures in non-lira loans.


 

 

"The mind is not a vessel to be filled but a fire to be kindled."

Plutarch