Market Commentary

Insights

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

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  • The Ball Is Rolling
     Author(s): Shaun Burgess | Fri August 17, 2018



    August has brought welcome news for the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and for creditors eager to see a resolution to the bankruptcy process that started more than two years ago with the passage of the Puerto Rico Oversight, Management, and Economic Stability Act (PROMESA).


  • Something Fishy
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Wed August 15, 2018



    Let’s see. An American company with American employees catches fish. It ships the fish to China. China imposes a tariff or retaliatory tariff when the fish arrives from America.


  • Turkey Tumbles, Financial Markets Are Unnerved
     Author(s): Bill Witherell, Ph.D. | Tue August 14, 2018



    The Turkish lira is down more than 40% year to date, with Friday’s fall alone reaching 18.5% at one point and ending down 14.3% for the day. While Turkey’s economy is not large, some major European banks have big exposures in non-lira loans.


  • Why the Yield Curve is Flat & Why It May Steepen
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Wed August 8, 2018



    We will offer readers a few references so they can become quick studies on why certain changes in the tax code are distorting the shape of the yield curve (flattening it) and why that distorting effect will change in about six weeks.


  • Western Series Responses
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Thu August 2, 2018



    We thank many readers for their responses to our three-part Western trip series.

    For those who missed them, we will list the three links here:


  • Japan Monetary Policy Uncertainty Ends
     Author(s): Bill Witherell, Ph.D. | Wed August 1, 2018



    Yesterday the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced in a report “Strengthening the Framework for Continuous Powerful Monetary Easing” that its extraordinary policies will be maintained for an “extended period of time”.


  • How Good Can It Get?
     Author(s): Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. | Tue July 31, 2018



    Friday’s GDP release showing growth at 4.1% is clearly positive news.


  • I Know An Old Lady Who Swallowed A Fly
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Thu July 26, 2018



    I know an old lady who swallowed a fly. I don’t know why she swallowed a fly. Perhaps she’ll die.

    I know an old lady who swallowed a spider. It wiggled and jiggled and tickled inside her. She swallowed the spider to catch the fly. I don’t know why she swallowed the fly. Perhaps...


  • Whack a Mole
     Author(s): Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. | Thu July 26, 2018



    In the latest on US trade policy, we are now starting to see the economic consequences of starting a tariff war. Farmers have been complaining that they are being hurt irreparably by the imposition of tariffs in retaliation for the tariffs being imposed on China and our allies. The Trump…


  • Trade War Worsens
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Wed July 25, 2018



    The Trump-Navarro trade war rhetoric ratchets higher. And jawboning the Fed is now added to the turmoil; our colleague Bob Eisenbeis has recently reflected on that one: https://www.cumber.com/fed-independence. Meanwhile most of the world is now labeled a currency manipulator by POTUS in his…


 

 

"The mind is not a vessel to be filled but a fire to be kindled."

Plutarch