We are back in Southern France, in the town of Bonnieux, perched on a hilltop in the Luberon region of Provence, far from the hustle of Paris. The country has recently endured a record number of thunderstorms, which have caused some serious flooding, and continues to experience a series of rail…

In our recent commentary “Predictions,” we quoted Daniel Kahneman and the story of the cost overruns and prolonged construction period associated with the Scottish Parliament Building. The project’s troubles didn’t end when the ribbon was cut. Brian Barnier, who is a voracious reader, sent me…

“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Yogi Berra made this quote famous, though its origins are disputed.

On May 31, we published a note entitled “Jobs for Everyone”(see http://www.cumber.com/jobs-for-everyone/). Many readers replied, and the views were diverse,…

In the May 10th edition of the Economist, an article entitled “Make work can’t work” (p. 25 in the print edition) considered the Democratic proposal for a jobs guarantee in United States. It opened as follows:

In the past two weeks investors have come, belatedly, to recognize the negative implications of the election of a populist government in Italy, the first such government in Western Europe. The possibility of a government collapse in Spain as a result of the main opposition party’s call for a…

The FOMC minutes are designed to provide a concise summary of the presentations and discussions that take place at FOMC meetings and the context behind the terse press release provided at the end of each meeting. Presumably, this communication device is meant to provide added color and a…

Trump’s cancellation of the Kim summit meeting clearly draws lines in the sand. Trump’s position cannot now be reversed for a longer period of time than was contemplated just hours ago. We now have an unpredictable escalation path.

Kim’s behavior in destroying tunnels, underground…

My friend and fishing buddy Brian Barnier is Director and Head of Analytics for ValueBridge Advisors (US) and Burnt Oak Capital (UK). He focuses on growing companies and investments through an emphasis on the application of technology to process improvement and the understanding of product,…

The first Rocky Mountain Economic Summit was a small group of businessmen and investors who assembled “down the hill” from Trout Ranch and talked about issues they confronted. They were a part of the Bronze Buffalo Club. I wasn’t there.

In book five of The History of the Peloponnesian War, Thucydides describes how the Athenians sustained surprisingly large losses in battle and how the Spartans prevailed. He also describes what each side didn’t know about the condition of the other side. Problems arise when decisions are based…