Insights
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.
Author(s): Matthew C. McAleer | Wed June 28, 2017
Recognizing strengths and weaknesses among primary asset classes is the core goal of our Tactical Trend strategy. The strategy seeks to identify relative strength and trend strength in order to allocate capital to the strongest asset classes while underweighting or eliminating exposure to the…
Author(s): Patricia Healy, CFA | Wed June 28, 2017
The Sunday, June 25, New York Times article “After Puerto Rico’s Debt Crisis, Worries Shift to Virgin Islands” highlights recent developments concerning the Virgin Islands territory’s lack of market access, drawing a parallel to Puerto Rico and assessing the potential for contagion to other US…
Author(s): Daniel Himelberger | Tue June 27, 2017
As the second quarter of 2017 comes to a close, markets have once again been dominated by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and its decision to raise the short-term interest-rate target another 25bps, to 1.00–1.25%. While this most recent rate hike was priced into the market, the decision…
Author(s): John R. Mousseau, CFA | Sat June 24, 2017
“The best bond values today will not be the best bond values next year and will certainly not be the best bond values until maturity.” – Sidney Homer, January 1973, Salomon Brothers study
Sidney Homer’s statement from a study published 44 years ago still rings as true today, when the 10-…
Author(s): Leo Chen, Ph.D. | Fri June 23, 2017
After the VIX temporarily broke above the 15 handle in mid-April, the US stock market was quickly restored to a low-VIX environment in the second quarter of 2017. In a remarkable display of fearlessness, the VIX index closed below 10 four times in the past month – and the VIX has closed below 10…
Author(s): Richard Daskin | Thu June 22, 2017
MLPs have had a disappointing quarter and year thus far. As of June 16, 2017, the Alerian Total Return Index is 9.2% lower for the quarter and 5.62% for the year. We believe the yield on the Alerian Index of 7.37% as of that date versus the 10 year US Treasury bond of 2.152% (source Bloomberg)…
Author(s): Patricia Healy, CFA | Wed June 21, 2017
Cumberland, since its inception in 1973, has utilized separately managed accounts to execute its fixed income strategy. This was long before separately managed accounts (SMAs) were popularized in the early 2000s. The reasons for managing money in this fashion are the same today as they were then…
Author(s): Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. | Tue June 20, 2017
At its June meeting, the FOMC again raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, to 1–1¼ percent. They did so despite evidence that inflation had moderated and that the second estimate of first quarter GDP growth was clearly subpar at 1.2%.
Author(s): David R. Kotok | Sat June 17, 2017
The Q2 stock market continued a concentration we saw in Q1. The stock components of the acronym known as FANG is the dominant reason for the strong market performance. FANG stands for Facebook, Apple, Netflix, Google. Some add Microsoft and Amazon; thus the acronym changes to FAANG or FAAMG.…
Author(s): Bill Witherell, Ph.D. | Thu June 15, 2017
Anxiety about the future course of the United Kingdom’s negotiations with the European Union (EU) has surged following the surprising outcome of the parliamentary elections last Thursday, in which Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its majority, resulting in a “hung Parliament…