Don Rissmiller is a Camp Kotok fishing pal, the new chair of the Global Interdependence Center, and a senior personality at Strategas. He is also one very thoughtful economist.

Strategas Research has compiled the year-to-date (through January 25) returns of major global equity markets. They point to Hong Kong and Brazil as the leaders, with returns YTD of around 10%. Of the others in the largest 20 markets, only two, Australia and the UK, were slightly negative. For…

“In the long run we are all dead” was John Maynard Keynes’ famous criticism of economic models. The rest of the quote goes, “Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task, if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us, that when the storm is long past, the ocean is flat again.” We…

Dear Readers,

We had the wonderful opportunity to present the Heldring Award to Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren at the GIC meeting in San Diego, held on Friday, January 12, at the Rady School of Management. This is GIC's second year in San Diego but the first time in partnership with…

Reports are that John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, has been targeted as a potential candidate for Fed vice chairman. President Williams is scheduled to vote as one of the five sitting reserve bank presidents on the FOMC in 2018. What would his appointment…

Next week the World Economic Forum (WEF) will host its 48th annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, drawing together a large number of leaders from governments (including President Trump), international organizations, business, academia, and civil society. The title for this year’s meeting is…

The US stock market had a marvelous year in 2017. The major benchmark S&P 500 returned 21.60%[1] including dividends. But savvy investors probably noticed that there were some significant discrepancies among the major indexes: If you chose the tech-heavy NASDAQ composite, you would have made…

We think that stocks in the US market will be fully valued when the S&P 500 Index hits the 3000 mark by the end of this decade. Here’s why.

A classic value method is to observe and estimate the equity risk premium (ERP). This method compares the earnings yield (earnings divided by…

We thank readers for their diverse and sometimes intense responses to our recent comments about marijuana legalization in California and about the reversal of a US policy.

The link to that piece is here: http://www.cumber.com/california-high-on-cannabinoid-wellness/.

Many good…

“California High on Cannabinoid Wellness” is the title to this commentary which was written a few days ago.

Now we must ask: “What about the rest of the nation?”

By yearend, 8 states will have recreational Marijuana; 29 will have medical usage. Meanwhile a reversal of established…