Market Commentary

Insights

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

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  • Guns: Part 2, The Investment Journey
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Tue February 27, 2018



    “I don’t want to invest in any gun makers,” said our client. She was and is passionate and adamant. “This shooting stuff has to stop.”

    “I agree with the goal” is my repeated reply. No one wants to see the scenes we are witnessing. But let’s talk about the investing issue and not the…


  • Guns: Part 1, A Personal Journey
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Mon February 26, 2018



    Each year at the Camp Kotok gathering in Maine, there is an optional morning for those who want to shoot. A variety of weapons are available. All shooting is supervised and all is on ranges or safe venues. We debated doing this for a few years and then tried it. The response was large. Many of…


  • The Classic DuPont Model
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Thu February 22, 2018



    In their February 15 DataTrek newsletter, Jessica Rabe and Nick Colas refer to the classic DuPont model in discussing how to deal with equity valuations. They admit that “Permanent changes to the tax code shift returns higher.” We agree. They then temper their outlook by introducing the deficit…


  • Vexed by VIX? Ask Pravit Chintawongvanich.
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Tue February 20, 2018



    Many market agents seem vexed by the VIX. Their recent lessons include a dramatic spiking of volatility, the reactionary pricing of an exchange-traded note (ETN), some forced liquidation, and a blisteringly fast correction in stock prices. The average stock dropped 14% in only a few weeks.…


  • Eurozone Economy Robust Despite Equity Market Correction
     Author(s): Bill Witherell, Ph.D. | Thu February 15, 2018



    Eurozone equity markets have declined in step with global markets in a widely expected market correction. While there has been some recovery in the first two days of this week, it is not yet clear that the correction has run its course. Concerns that interest rates in both the United States and…


  • Piggy Bank
     Author(s): Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. | Wed February 14, 2018



    One of the characteristics of a struggling republic is the inability to separate its central bank’s resources from the fiscal largesse of the federal government. Using central bank resources to avoid addressing funding of the government is a sure path to runaway inflation, economic decline, and…


  • Trump Infrastructure – First Take
     Author(s): Patricia Healy, CFA | Tue February 13, 2018



    The President’s infrastructure vision is now in the hands of Congress, which is tasked with devising a plan that promotes investment in our nation’s well-being. The vision includes over $1 trillion in investment over the next ten years. Infrastructure investment is sorely needed, as is…


  • Politics Threatens the Fed
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Tue February 13, 2018



    “Yet there is also good reason to worry,” wrote the Economist on a page 10 editorial dated February 3, 2018. We agree.


  • Presidents & Stock Market Quotes
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Fri February 9, 2018



    First we must say that we think the market is now very oversold and panicked.  That is why we were on the buying side today and especially so in the last hour. Most of the cash in the US and US Core ETF portfolios is deployed as of 4 PM today. The quantitative Lev Vol and Vol strategy…


  • Money, Banking, Energy, Economics on February 22
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Thu February 8, 2018



    Economic and financial issues will be thoroughly discussed on February 22 at USF Sarasota-Manatee. The confirmed lineup includes Sara Banaszak of Exxon Mobil, who has expertise in the energy sector. Everything from Puerto Rico Electric Power to offshore drilling to national constraints is on the…


 

 

"The mind is not a vessel to be filled but a fire to be kindled."

Plutarch