Material and commentaries published in the past may or may not be helpful in analyzing current economic or financial market activity. Please note publishing date when reviewing materials.  Please email [email protected] for our current thoughts or to reach an advisor.

 

Market Commentary

Insights

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

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  • Report from Iguazu
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Fri March 10, 2017



    We've traveled with a full Camp K contingent to Argentina. Diverse views have been exchanged among policy makers, entrepreneurs, investors, and investment professionals, all under Chatham House rules.

    A longer essay will be forthcoming. My initial takeaway is worrisome. We have talked…


  • Zika Update
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Thu March 9, 2017



    We open this commentary with a link to a column by Nicholas Kristof entitled, “However Much Trump Spends on Arms, We Can’t Bomb Ebola":  https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/02/opinion/however-much-trump-spends-on-arms-we-cant-bomb-ebola.html.

    We can't bomb Zika, either.

    We continue to…


  • Market Pricing Under a Regime Change
     Author(s): Leo Chen, Ph.D. | Wed March 8, 2017



    Just as ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) and NIRP (negative interest rate policy) dilute bond-pricing models, the Trump rally defies equity pricing models. The stock market has soared for over 90 days consecutively without a 1% daily drop and has become a one-sided bet. Although both fundamental…


  • Broad Global Economic Expansion Supports Equity Markets
     Author(s): Bill Witherell, Ph.D. | Tue March 7, 2017



    Economic data for February provided clear indications that the global economy is experiencing a broad recovery, with the major advanced economies growing close to or even above their estimated potential growth rates. This positive macroeconomic environment is providing a tailwind for equity…


  • Bill Dudley to keynote March 30 event in Sarasota
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Fri March 3, 2017



    Bill Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, has agreed to keynote the March 30, 2017, Financial Literacy Day, to be held at the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee. Visit usfsm.edu/event/financial-literacy-day/ to register and to view the…


  • Trump, The Fed, the Speech
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Wed March 1, 2017



    First, we suggest reading this February 24, 2017, note in the Washington Post by Neil Howe: washingtonpost.com/entertainment/books/where-did-steve-bannon-get-his-worldview-from-my-book/, since the following discusses a “turning” that may be approaching with the central bank of the United States…


  • March 30 Event Includes Panel to Help Investors
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Wed March 1, 2017



    Cumberland Advisors is pleased to announce a philanthropic gift to the six universities in the greater Sarasota area – a 12-terminal Bloomberg financial laboratory that will be housed at the University of South Florida’s Business School. All six Sarasota-Manatee “C4 Multiversity” education…


  • Outperform The Market II: The Golden Ratio
     Author(s): Leo Chen, Ph.D. | Sat February 25, 2017



    Last week we shared a strategy using gold and bonds to outperform the market (cumber.com/outperform-the-market-look-no-further-gold-bonds-and-leverage/). This week we are going to introduce a strategy that uses the “golden ratio” rather than gold to beat the S&P 500. Since today is Friday…


  • Love & Marriage, Interest Rates, Fishing with Yoan Alvarez
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Fri February 24, 2017



    A road trip is completed, and another one is underway. Besides the matter of the Trumpest in the Washington Teapot, the overriding majority of questions we encountered had to do with interest rates. Where are they going? What does that mean for my bonds? And, of course, for the stock market? And…


  • Charities, Trustees, Foundations, March 30th
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Wed February 22, 2017



    The March 30, 2017, Financial Literacy Day program (see usfsm.edu/event/financial-literacy-day/) is designed to include a special session on charitable foundations and fiduciary roles, trustee responsibilities, investment committee oversight, and areas of concern. Also included in this program…


 

 

"The mind is not a vessel to be filled but a fire to be kindled."

Plutarch