Bullets on the debt-ceiling charade:

1. No one expects the US to default. So why has the credit default swap (CDS) on the US risen in price? Answer: Bond market agents want to add a little insurance just in case American politics deliver a negative surprise.

2. The short end of the…

For many years, the so-called Phillips curve has provided the inflation forecast framework underlying much of the FOMC’s policy discussions.  Yet both before and especially after the financial crisis, the Fed and FOMC members have consistently under-forecasted inflation.  A new working…

Emerging market equities are continuing to outperform remarkably this year. While a pullback seems overdue, there are a number of reasons to expect the trend to remain upward, perhaps for several years more. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, EEM, is up 28.19% year-to-date August 24. The…

The biggest rainbow trout I ever caught lives at the Keystone (Colorado) Village Ice Rink, a five-acre lake at 9321 feet above sea level. Here is that wonderful fish, held by Matt Campanella, a skilled fly fishing guide.

What is Camp Kotok???

“Rats have been said to be the first to sense an impending disaster, such as a sinking ship or a gas leak in a mine – so if rats are leaving, it’s a good idea to follow!"

“Early records of the expression [‘like rats deserting a sinking ship’] go back all the way to Pliny the Elder's…

This commentary was co-authored by Philippa Dunne (The Liscio Report) and David Kotok (Cumberland Advisors). It reflects their personal views.

A saga unfolds. First, snippets of online news, followed by TV images and “breaking news” reports. “Another one,” she thinks. “Ugh!” he exclaims…

“Geopolitical tensions reared up last week and eclipsed key fundamental data points. The escalating war of words between the US and North Korea resulted in a textbook flight to safety into bonds, and also provided an excuse to take profits on equities, especially after the Dow posted nine…

First to markets: We have raised a cash reserve in US ETF portfolios, and we are realigning bonds now that credit spreads are tightening and yields are low as quality flight occurs. We have rebalanced gold miners using an ETF. We remain overweight the financial sector and defense sector using…

When the Treasury Secretary of the United States has to manage federal finances as the calendar propels the country toward an artificially created fiscal cliff, he typically writes a letter like this one: treasury.gov/initiatives/Documents/Mnuchin to Ryan on DISP - 7-28-17 (2).pdf. Such is the…