Market Commentary

Insights

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

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  • 2Q2017 REVIEW: PUERTO RICO INSURED
     Author(s): Patricia Healy, CFA and Shaun Burgess | Fri July 7, 2017



    We closely follow the bond insurers because they remain an important part of the municipal market, and they are integral to our Insured Puerto Rico Strategy.

    Cumberland exited all uninsured Puerto Rico exposure in 2011, as it was clear that population loss and economic circumstances…


  • 2Q2017 Review: International ETF
     Author(s): Matthew McAleer | Thu July 6, 2017



    Our International ETF strategy analyzes fiscal and interest-rate policy and complements that research with trading analytics to determine portfolio risk/reward and valuations. The strategy has the benefit of flexibility to assign allocations by market cap size and developed vs. emerging markets…


  • AMERICA's Birthday
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Wed July 5, 2017



    It’s America’s birthday. Hot dogs and fireworks. Burgers and beer. Gatherings. A lightness is in the air from Key West to Presque Isle, from Pasadena to Juneau. We have good reason (our freedom) for that lifting of spirits.

    Let’s celebrate, but let’s also be serious for a moment.


  • Zika Update
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Sun July 2, 2017



    For two years, we have been following the Zika virus outbreak and the failure of the US government to protect its own citizens, let alone demonstrate world leadership. In total, by the time Congress managed to pass a stopgap spending bill for the fight against Zika in September 2016, more than…


  • 2Q 2017 Municipal Credit
     Author(s): Patricia Healy, CFA | Sat July 1, 2017



    As budget season comes to a close, there were 14 states joining Illinois that still had not finalized their budgets by the time of this writing. Illinois, which has received numerous downgrades because it has not had a budget in two years and has amassed a large backlog of receivables, could…


  • Intergenerational Equity
     Author(s): Gabriel Hament | Thu June 29, 2017



    For 30+ years, Cumberland Advisors has worked with nonprofits, helping boards of directors draft RFPs, structure investment policy statements, and design investment portfolios within a separately managed account format – all in compliance with our clients’ unique state regulatory environments.…


  • 2Q2017 Review: Tactical Trend
     Author(s): Matthew C. McAleer | Wed June 28, 2017



    Recognizing strengths and weaknesses among primary asset classes is the core goal of our Tactical Trend strategy. The strategy seeks to identify relative strength and trend strength in order to allocate capital to the strongest asset classes while underweighting or eliminating exposure to the…


  • Headline Risk, a One-Two Punch, and Contagion Risk
     Author(s): Patricia Healy, CFA | Wed June 28, 2017



    The Sunday, June 25, New York Times article “After Puerto Rico’s Debt Crisis, Worries Shift to Virgin Islands” highlights recent developments concerning the Virgin Islands territory’s lack of market access, drawing a parallel to Puerto Rico and assessing the potential for contagion to other US…


  • Taxable Total Return – Second Quarter Review
     Author(s): Daniel Himelberger | Tue June 27, 2017



    As the second quarter of 2017 comes to a close, markets have once again been dominated by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and its decision to raise the short-term interest-rate target another 25bps, to 1.00–1.25%. While this most recent rate hike was priced into the market, the decision…


  • 2Q 2017 Tax-Free Review: Total Return Investing in Municipal Bonds
     Author(s): John R. Mousseau, CFA | Sat June 24, 2017



    “The best bond values today will not be the best bond values next year and will certainly not be the best bond values until maturity.” – Sidney Homer, January 1973, Salomon Brothers study

    Sidney Homer’s statement from a study published 44 years ago still rings as true today, when the 10-…


 

 

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