Market Commentary

Insights

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

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  • A Short Note on Bank Muni Holdings
     Author(s): John R. Mousseau, CFA | Fri March 9, 2018



    The Wall Street Journal had a story on the front page of the “B” section Wednesday morning about banks getting some relief with regard to counting municipal bonds among their “liquid assets.” On Tuesday the Senate voted to formally debate a bill containing that provision, and it should have…


  • Guns: Part 4, The Journeys of Others
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Sun March 4, 2018



    Many thanks to all who emailed a response to Guns 1-2-3.


  • A First Look
     Author(s): Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. | Sun March 4, 2018



    As a part of his first semiannual monetary policy report to Congress, Chairman Powell made an appearance this week before both the House Financial Services Committee and Senate Banking Committee to discuss monetary policy and the state of the economy. How did he do?


  • Trump, Protectionism, Triumph or Truculence?
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Sat March 3, 2018



    “16 US steel stocks market cap up $1B as a result of tariff announcement today. Rest of S&P 500 down $400B. "Making Americans Poor Again." (H/T Smails)”. – Doug Kass, March 2, 2018

    Readers are invited to research the following words: protectionism, tariffs, quotas, trade barriers,…


  • VITA
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Fri March 2, 2018



    VITA stands for “Volunteer Income Tax Assistance.” There are additional specialized programs like it. The key to success of the new tax reform law is to have these programs used. Why?


  • Guns: Part 3, The Policy Journey
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Wed February 28, 2018



    In part one of this series, I wrote about my personal journey with guns. Part two involved the US stock market and bond market and Cumberland’s investment policy and how it relates to the three public companies that constitute the gun makers whose shares trade on the US exchanges and are thus…


  • Guns: Part 2, The Investment Journey
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Tue February 27, 2018



    “I don’t want to invest in any gun makers,” said our client. She was and is passionate and adamant. “This shooting stuff has to stop.”

    “I agree with the goal” is my repeated reply. No one wants to see the scenes we are witnessing. But let’s talk about the investing issue and not the…


  • Guns: Part 1, A Personal Journey
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Mon February 26, 2018



    Each year at the Camp Kotok gathering in Maine, there is an optional morning for those who want to shoot. A variety of weapons are available. All shooting is supervised and all is on ranges or safe venues. We debated doing this for a few years and then tried it. The response was large. Many of…


  • The Classic DuPont Model
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Thu February 22, 2018



    In their February 15 DataTrek newsletter, Jessica Rabe and Nick Colas refer to the classic DuPont model in discussing how to deal with equity valuations. They admit that “Permanent changes to the tax code shift returns higher.” We agree. They then temper their outlook by introducing the deficit…


  • Vexed by VIX? Ask Pravit Chintawongvanich.
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Tue February 20, 2018



    Many market agents seem vexed by the VIX. Their recent lessons include a dramatic spiking of volatility, the reactionary pricing of an exchange-traded note (ETN), some forced liquidation, and a blisteringly fast correction in stock prices. The average stock dropped 14% in only a few weeks.…


 

 

"The mind is not a vessel to be filled but a fire to be kindled."

Plutarch