Material and commentaries published in the past may or may not be helpful in analyzing current economic or financial market activity. Please note publishing date when reviewing materials.  Please email [email protected] for our current thoughts or to reach an advisor.

 

Market Commentary

Insights

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

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  • US Hurricanes and the Bond Market
     Author(s): John R. Mousseau, CFA & Gabriel Hament | Sat September 9, 2017



    As Hurricane Irma churns through the Caribbean, the United States is faced with something that it has not experienced before: two hurricanes of category 4 or higher hitting the country in the same year (http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html).


  • Cumberland Advisors Emergency Response Plans - Hurricane IRMA
     Author(s): | Fri September 8, 2017



    Cumberland Advisors has activated our emergency response plans as a result of Hurricane IRMA. We expect to have a complete offering of services throughout the effects of the storm. Please be aware that we may be operating with limited staffing and this may slow our normal response times.…


  • Leen's Lodge Labor Day Musings
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Wed September 6, 2017



    Labor Day weekend at Leen’s Lodge in Grand Lake Stream, Maine, continues a quarter-century tradition, and the best parts of that tradition have been reaffirmed. Sure, we also discussed the world as we see it and debated scenarios. A great outline of issues was summarized in the opening paragraph…


  • Hurricane Harvey – Unprecedented Event?
     Author(s): Patricia Healy, CFA | Thu August 31, 2017



    Our thoughts go out to all those displaced or injured, those who had homes and businesses destroyed, and especially those who lost loved ones. Many of us have been glued to the TV, focused on the news surrounding the devastating damage that has occurred and is continuing to occur at the time of…


  • Debt Ceiling Part II
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Wed August 30, 2017



    Bullets on the debt-ceiling charade:

    1. No one expects the US to default. So why has the credit default swap (CDS) on the US risen in price? Answer: Bond market agents want to add a little insurance just in case American politics deliver a negative surprise.

    2. The short end of the…


  • Inflation and the FOMC: Minutes of July 2017
     Author(s): Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. | Tue August 29, 2017



    For many years, the so-called Phillips curve has provided the inflation forecast framework underlying much of the FOMC’s policy discussions.  Yet both before and especially after the financial crisis, the Fed and FOMC members have consistently under-forecasted inflation.  A new working paper…


  • Emerging-Market Rally Has Further to Run
     Author(s): Bill Witherell, Ph.D. | Sat August 26, 2017



    Emerging market equities are continuing to outperform remarkably this year. While a pullback seems overdue, there are a number of reasons to expect the trend to remain upward, perhaps for several years more. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, EEM, is up 28.19% year-to-date August 24. The…


  • Biggest Rainbow Trout
     Author(s): | Fri August 25, 2017



    The biggest rainbow trout I ever caught lives at the Keystone (Colorado) Village Ice Rink, a five-acre lake at 9321 feet above sea level. Here is that wonderful fish, held by Matt Campanella, a skilled fly fishing guide.


  • What is Camp Kotok???
     Author(s): Sharon Prizant | Thu August 24, 2017



    What is Camp Kotok???

    This is not a routine Cumberland Advisors Commentary!  Rather than offering commentary on issues and events of importance to the investment and advisory community, this Commentary reports on a very unique and special event for the investment and advisory community…


  • Rats and Repatriation
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Tue August 22, 2017



    “Rats have been said to be the first to sense an impending disaster, such as a sinking ship or a gas leak in a mine – so if rats are leaving, it’s a good idea to follow!"

    “Early records of the expression [‘like rats deserting a sinking ship’] go back all the way to Pliny the Elder's…


 

 

"The mind is not a vessel to be filled but a fire to be kindled."

Plutarch