The classic formula is simple. Take the population growth rate and add to it the change in the productivity of the working portion of the population and you get the growth rate of the economy in real terms. Inflation changes the nominal pricing of the elements.

There are many positive analyses demonstrating the importance of ESG.

Fred Feldkamp gave us permission to share this exceptional history lesson, which includes work on credit spreads, markets, war, and the defining characteristics of our country’s national durability. Fred is a retired lawyer with skills in the securities and financial services business and a…

A number of readers responded thoughtfully to the second installment in our series on ESG, which was focused on water system woes in Jackson, Mississippi: “ESG Part 2: Jackson, Mississippi.” ESG Part 1 introduced the series and the upcoming ESG conference at Rowan University on October 14.…

On Tuesday, the Labor Department released its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data for the month of August. Given that we are already a week into October, that reading on the labor market is really for the second month of the third quarter is a bit old.

Global equity markets outside of the United States have completed a third negative quarter, with the MSCI ACWI ex US IMI Index down 11.26% in the three months through October 30. For the year to date, this index is down 27.19%, which clearly indicates a “bear market.” By historical standards,…

Treasury yields continued to rise during the third quarter of 2022. The largest movement was seen in T-bills as the Fed raised the fed funds rate by 150 bps during the quarter. This trend has resulted in much of the yield curve being inverted. The largest movement was in the 3-month bill that…

The third quarter was marked by a rise in interest rates across the entire yield curve, particularly on the short end as the Federal Reserve continued to raise short-term rates in their battle to slow inflation.

Good Sunday morning to all readers. We hope you are safe, secure, and recovering from Ian's destruction if you found yourself in the storm’s path. And if you know someone — whether friend, relative, business associate, or colleague — who has been impacted by Ian, we hope they, too, are now safe…

Cumberland Advisors is in the City of Sarasota. In preparation for the storm, which was initially expected to make landfall in the Tampa area, we sent some employees to our disaster recovery site in Vineland, NJ, where Cumberland’s headquarters was originally located.